Armed groups are being formed in places like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, where state militaries cannot defeat jihadists and separatists alone. Once formed, however, they seldom stay loyal.

Amid growing competition for influence in Africa from the US, Moscow has been deepening military and economic ties there, especially in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. Now, it must deliver.

A five-day visit to Moscow ended with agreements to cooperate in a range of areas. Mali wants nuclear power and Russian military support, whereas the Kremlin has its eyes on a precious metal.

The incident is a clear signal that it's no longer business-as-usual in the Sahel. New alliances and shifting dynamics are reshaping the region.

One of the world's poorest nations currently has one of the fastest growing economies in Africa. Looking at the map and surveys of its mineral deposits shows why that might continue.

A recent jihadist attack on Mali's capital and a growing threat from northern rebels reportedly getting help from Ukraine begs the question: is the Sahel a new Russia-West battleground?

The US and French withdrawal from the Sahel lets the Russians, Chinese, and Iranians in. Tehran, in particular, will be keen to buy Niger's uranium, despite this being a red line for Washington.

A huge belt of land dividing the dry Sahara from the tropical savannah has become a playground for mercenaries. An absence of state security, poverty, and a lack of education create the perfect storm.

Until the West can prove that it can address the economic and security challenges Sahel countries face, the governance models represented by China or Russia will continue to gain more appeal.