Filling the void
For the European Union, Russia's deployment of paramilitaries from the Wagner mercenary group risks further destabilising the Sahel, which in turn poses a threat to European security.
Local military sources say the US thinks that Niger's new regime has been talking to Russia and Iran about military cooperation and uranium supply. Washington sees this as a threat and has threatened sanctions.
Amadou denied any secret deals with Iran over uranium, calling them "lies" and accusing the US of arrogance and condescension.
But Western intelligence sources say they know about recent contacts between Niger's military junta and Iranian officials.
For Washington, which has spent years seeking to undermine Iran's nuclear programme, Iranian access to Niger's uranium would be a red line.
Niger is a big player in a big market. In 2023, global uranium production reached 60.3 kilotons and is projected to increase by 11.7% in 2024 (production could reach 77 kilotons by 2030).
In its latest report, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Iran had increased its capability to enrich uranium enrichment to 60%, meaning that supply will now be of interest.
Iranian allure
Tehran uses an anti-colonial, anti-imperialist narrative in its dealings with African nations, capitalising on regional discontent with Western powers, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and the plight of Palestinians in Gaza.
The Stimson Centre, a US think tank, has analysed rhetoric from Iran's President Ibrahim Raisi during his tours of sub-Saharan Africa.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (C) inspects the guard of honour during his official visit at the State House in Entebbe, Uganda, on July 12, 2023
He has lauded resistance against colonialism in visits to Uganda, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Algeria, and earlier to Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba, which were aligned with the anti-US bloc during the Cold War.
The withdrawal has offered Iran an opportunity to build alliances, secure a supply of uranium, and advocate for a new political order for the nations of the global south.
Iran has a habit of exploiting failing or fragile states, having done so in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. It appears to be taking this strategy to the Sahel.
The Iranians could easily succeed. This is a poor region that is currently divided by disputes with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Union of Sahel States, comprising Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
Since 2021, the Union countries have all had military coups. Subsequently, they have all developed strong ties with Russia and China, dispensing with their French and American allegiances in the process.
A more subtle approach
Iran's tactics are different by necessity. It has to operate more subtly, a Shiite power in a predominantly Sunni area, as it aims to avoid a backlash from jihadist groups.
European diplomats with experience on the African continent say Sunni influence "has been strong in sub-Saharan Africa for centuries", making it challenging for Iran to make inroads.
Tehran hopes that its anti-colonial chorus line will resonate with local populations who feel economically exploited and politically marginalised after decades of collusion between their rulers and the West.
Its strategy has had some early success. Tehran signed cooperation agreements with Burkina Faso in energy, construction, and universities in October last year.
Likewise, universities and training institutes focused on scientific research and technology are opening in Mali, Iran. These early deals suggest that rather than offer guns or money, Iran will offer education.
The choice suggests a long-term interest, but analysts suspect it may not be enough, partly because setting up universities is not cheap.