The US and French withdrawal from the Sahel lets the Russians, Chinese, and Iranians in. Tehran, in particular, will be keen to buy Niger's uranium, despite this being a red line for Washington.
A huge belt of land dividing the dry Sahara from the tropical savannah has become a playground for mercenaries. An absence of state security, poverty, and a lack of education create the perfect storm.
Until the West can prove that it can address the economic and security challenges Sahel countries face, the governance models represented by China or Russia will continue to gain more appeal.
Sustainable peace in the Middle East will depend on Gulf countries normalising ties with Israel and moving toward a two-state solution for Palestine. Arab nations must seize the initiative.