A recent jihadist attack on Mali's capital and a growing threat from northern rebels reportedly getting help from Ukraine begs the question: is the Sahel a new Russia-West battleground?
The US and French withdrawal from the Sahel lets the Russians, Chinese, and Iranians in. Tehran, in particular, will be keen to buy Niger's uranium, despite this being a red line for Washington.
A huge belt of land dividing the dry Sahara from the tropical savannah has become a playground for mercenaries. An absence of state security, poverty, and a lack of education create the perfect storm.
Until the West can prove that it can address the economic and security challenges Sahel countries face, the governance models represented by China or Russia will continue to gain more appeal.
Key regional powers—Türkiye, Egypt, Iran—do not see eye to eye over what transpired in Syria. One emerges as a winner, the other a loser, and Syria's new Islamist-leaning leaders unsettle the third.
Integrating armed factions, particularly the SDF, will be key, as well as agreeing on an inclusive new government that can unify a country that has been plagued by division
Earlier eras have been characterised by peaceful coexistence in Islam, when people from different religions lived side by side, with equal rights, at a time when violence raged around other faiths