Politics

Clashes in Aleppo may be the creaking before the earthquake

If fighting spreads beyond the predominantly Kurdish neighbourhoods of Ashrafieh and Sheikh Maqsoud and beyond Aleppo, there is a real risk that Syria could be dragged into a new civil war

Bakr ALkasem / AFP

Buses wait to enter the Sheikh Maqsoud neighbourhood to evacuate US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) force fighters from two districts of the city of Aleppo, northern Syria, on 9 January 2026.

Clashes in Aleppo may be the creaking before the earthquake

Omer Onhon

last update on 10 Jan 2026

Clashes in northern Syria between fighters of a Kurdish militia and those representing government forces in Damascus have shaken the ancient city of Aleppo, which is still trying to recover from the effects of the devastating civil war. If fighting spreads beyond the predominantly Kurdish neighbourhoods of Ashrafieh and Sheikh Maqsoud and beyond Aleppo, there is a real risk that Syria could be dragged into a new civil war.

After heavy fighting left more than 20 dead and many more injured, the Syrian army is now in full control of Ashrafieh. On Thursday night, the Ministry of Defence declared a ceasefire around Sheikh Maqsoud, Ashrafieh, and Beni Zeyd, and allowed a safe passage for several hours for armed groups to leave Aleppo for the SDF’s north-east stronghold. In April 2025, as agreed with Damascus, YPG forces left the neighbourhoods, relocating hundreds of fighters east of the Euphrates River. Only Asayish internal security forces remained, plus YPG forces disguised as Asayish.

As Al Majalla went to press, the Syrian army had given Kurdish fighters a Friday morning window and route to leave Aleppo, but the Kurds (aligned with the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF) had refused to go. The army then declared the area a closed military zone and imposed a curfew. As night fell, footage was posted online purportedly showing explosions, with heavy fighting reported in Sheikh Maqsoud.

Commenting on social media, the SDF said the area was “coming under intense and heavy shelling by factions and militias affiliated with the Damascus government, using various types of heavy weapons, tanks, and artillery”. It added that “this constitutes a wide-scale assault targeting residential areas and reflects a pattern of systematic war of annihilation against the population”.

OMAR HAJ KADOUR / AFP — This picture taken on January 8, 2026, shows columns of smoke rising from Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh neighbourhoods amid intense clashes between government forces and the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Clashes amid talks

Negotiations between Damascus and the Kurdish-led autonomous set-up in Syria’s north-east, governed by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), had been ongoing in an effort to finalise arrangements made under an agreement signed on 10 March 2025. Talks had gained momentum in recent weeks, and an agreement seemed close, according to reports leaked to the press. Moreover, there was a positive atmosphere created by the agreement reached between Syria and Israel in the US-mediated talks in Paris just a few days ago. So, why did fighting erupt in Aleppo in recent days?

Damascus thinks the SDF’s insistence on its maximalist demands threatens Syria's unity. The Kurds, in turn, insist that they will not return to the situation as it was prior to the beginning of Syria’s 14-year civil war in 2011. For them, this means that their armed forces will not be disbanded, and that they will not accept a return to a strongly centralised administrative structure.

One of the key elements of the 10 March agreement is the integration of the SDF’s armed wing into the national army, alongside other big issues, such as Syria’s administrative system, the new constitution, ownership of SDF-controlled oil fields, and the distribution of oil revenues.

Israel wants a weak and fractured Syria. It also wants to keep Türkiye at bay, hence its interest in the Kurds and the SDF

In an interview, senior SDF commander Sipan Hamo said that the Syrian government of Ahmed al-Sharaa aims to recreate a version of the previous Assad regime. He also criticised Damascus as intransigent and unresponsive in negotiations, arguing that this was mainly owing to Turkish demands.

Türkiye's position on SDF integration into the Syrian army is that the SDF should lay down its arms, non-Syrian militants within the SDF should leave Syria, and the SDF should not be integrated into the Syrian army as a whole, but militants who wish to do so could join individually. Türkiye is also sceptical about any decentralised system.

Under Ankara's eye

Blaming Damascus and Türkiye is the easy option for the SDF. It ignores the fact that the group has made maximalist demands and that it has repeatedly stalled the process. Both sides accuse the other of firing the first shot in Aleppo.

Regardless of who did, trouble had been brewing for months. Several factors influenced the course of the fighting, including a decision by Damascus to break the deadlock, an SDF miscalculation of Damascus's force strength, and perceptions as to the support or otherwise of the United States and/or Israel.

Türkiye is closely following developments in Aleppo. There are concerns that if the fighting spreads, there could be a new wave of refugees. In a statement on Thursday, the Turkish Ministry of Defence said the fighting in Aleppo was a counterterrorism operation to reinstitute public order, adding that it was carried out "entirely" by the Syrian army, indicating that Turkish security forces are not involved.

However, Türkiye said it would provide Syria with the necessary support if requested, indicating the close cooperation between Türkiye and Syria in security and defence. On 22 December 2025, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defence Minister Yaşar Güler, and intelligence chief İbrahim Kalın met al-Sharaa and his senior team in Damascus.

In some cities in Türkiye, there have been demonstrations in support of the Kurds in Aleppo, where clashes have a bearing on domestic Turkish politics and on the ongoing disarmament process between Ankara and the Kurdish terrorist group, the PKK. Last year, imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan called for the group to lay down its arms, but there are differences of view as to whether this covers the YPG or not. Türkiye argues that the YPG is the PKK in Syria, and therefore Öcalan's call covers it; the YPG disagrees.

REUTERS/Karam al‑Masri — Members of the Syrian Civil Defence work to extinguish a fire after shelling amid renewed clashes between the Syrian army and the Syrian Democratic Forces in Aleppo, Syria, on 8 January 2026.

The US and Israel

The other two countries directly involved are the United States and Israel. US Special Envoy to Syria Ambassador Tom Barrack stressed Washington's concern and appealed to Damascus, the SDF, local authorities in Kurdish-administered areas, and all armed actors to pause hostilities and commit to de-escalation. The US has helped facilitate talks between Damascus and the SDF and is working to calm the situation in Aleppo. Barrack arrived in Damascus on Friday to hold talks to that end.

Israel, however, wants to influence the shape of post-Assad Syria in accordance with its own interests, so it has taken an interest in Syrian minorities at odds with Damascus, notably the Druze, Alawites, and Kurds. Israel wants a weak and fractured Syria. It also wants to keep Türkiye at bay, hence its interest in the Kurds and the SDF. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said the clashes in Aleppo were grave attacks by the Syrian army against the Kurdish minority and reminded the West that it owed a debt of honour to the Kurds, "who fought bravely and successfully against the Islamic State (IS)."

Israel may even provide covert support to the SDF in some ways, but a direct Israeli military intervention in the north (like that in Sweida last year) seems unlikely. For a start, these areas are much further away from Israel, but most importantly, Türkiye would not tolerate any such intervention near its border. Washington would also most likely be against it.

The clashes in Aleppo come at a time of extraordinary developments in Iran, with huge protests in many cities (including Tehran) also involving Kurdish Iranians. US President Donald Trump has repeated his threat to the Iranian authorities that the US will respond harshly if civilians are killed by Iranian security forces, with more than 50 reported as having already lost their lives. Taken altogether, the region appears to be fast reaching boiling point.

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