For years, Tehran projected confident deterrence across the Middle East, a citadel protected by legions. Today, it faces vulnerabilities like few other moments in recent memory, as nationwide protests, economic collapse, and a recently reconfigured regional order converge to create a perfect storm.
Iran’s leaders have witnessed—and suppressed—large-scale protest movements before, but in January 2026, external shocks have truly altered the equation. During its confrontation with Israel in the middle of 2025, Iran’s air defence systems were crippled and serious damage was inflicted on its military and multi-billion dollar nuclear facilities.
The United States’ Operation Midnight Hammer—a precision strike targeting facilities at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan—marked an unprecedented escalation. In breaking one of Iran’s most sacrosanct red lines, Washington signalled a shift from strategic ambiguity to open confrontation.
Moment of culmination
In recent days, protests have swelled across dozens of Iranian cities. Similar scenes were witnessed when Donald Trump was campaigning for a return to the White House. At the time, he repeatedly suggested that the US could use force. In recent days, he has done so again. This is not idle rhetoric, as Midnight Hammer showed. Washington is no longer on the sidelines.
That message crystallised with a dramatic US operation to capture and remove Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro, a long‑time ally of Iran. In a swift and bold operation, American forces seized Maduro hours after he met the Chinese envoy. Shortly after, the US seized a Russian oil tanker, despite Russian military vessels having been sent to protect it.
The message was not lost on observers in Moscow or Tehran. The Venezuelan president was a Russian ally, but Vladimir Putin could not shield Maduro in his palace, just as he could not secure another ally, the former Syrian president Bashar al‑Assad, in Damascus. Among these global depositions of autocrats, Iran's ageing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sits with increasing discomfort.
