Israel’s attack on Iran has sparked global concern, raising fears of a regional war, the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons, and even the outbreak of a third world war. Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, stated publicly that operation ‘Rising Lion’ had been in preparation for a long time, claiming that Iran was dangerously close to developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran has had a civilian nuclear energy programme for more than 50 years, but maintains it is for peaceful purposes. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), however, recently reported that Iran possesses a record amount of enriched uranium and has not fully complied with its nuclear non-proliferation obligations, despite having said for 20 years that it has complied.
Prior to Israel’s attack, the US and Iran had been in dialogue over Tehran’s nuclear programme since April, with US President Donald Trump stating the two parties were close to a deal at the end of May—a claim not confirmed by Iran.
To date, Israel has struck nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan. Despite the attacks, radiation levels outside the Natanz site have remained unchanged, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). However, there is radiological and chemical contamination within the facility.
Escalation timeline
The two sides have traded blows before, most recently in April 2024, when Iran launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israel in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus. Further strikes were carried out in October the same year, but this time the conflict has escalated in both scale and scope.
Israel has targeted nuclear and military facilities across Iran, killing around a dozen top commanders—including the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, the chief of the General Staff, and the commander of the Air Force—as well as several Iranian nuclear scientists. Assassinations have become an integral part of Israel’s war doctrine—targeting the leadership structures of its enemies with precision.
In response, Iran has launched missile and drone attacks on Tel Aviv and other cities. Still, Israel’s attacks appear to be way ahead of Iran’s in terms of military effectiveness. The civilian death toll in Iran has been high, with more than 200 killed and hundreds injured. In Israel, 20 have been killed and hundreds more wounded.
Despite clear warnings—including alerts to US citizens, the evacuation of families, and the closure of embassies—Iran was, once again, caught off guard. In addition to cyber intelligence, Israel has a large network of human assets within Iran, smuggling in weapons and deploying operatives to hit targets with precision. In response, Iran is ratcheting up the rhetoric, threatening to target US bases, as well as those of France and the UK, if they continue to support Israel.
