For decades, Iran and Israel have been locked in a protracted shadow war marked by covert operations, proxy conflicts, and strategic posturing. However, the dynamics of their conflict shifted dramatically in 2024, with events escalating from shadowy skirmishes to direct confrontations. As 2025 begins, the possibility of an all-out war looms larger than ever.
This escalation began with Israel’s series of air strikes in Syria, including a high-profile attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran retaliated with a massive barrage of ballistic missiles targeting Israel. This exchange signalled a shift from their long-standing shadow war into a more overt, dangerous confrontation, initiating a tit-for-tat cycle.
Subsequent events only exacerbated tensions. Israel followed its limited strike on Iranian military infrastructure in Esfahan with the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, although they never officially claimed responsibility.
Enraged by what it saw as an affront on its soil, Iran responded with another wave of ballistic missiles targeting Israeli territory. In retaliation, Israel launched an extensive attack on Iranian military installations. Both sides have sought to assert dominance, pushing the conflict closer to a dangerous precipice.
Read more: Shadow war no more: How will the new Iran-Israel power dynamic affect the region?
Deciphering Iran's silence
Despite its aggressive rhetoric, Iran has displayed restraint in the aftermath of Israel’s most recent strikes, remaining conspicuously silent for several months. This restraint reflects the multifaceted challenges Iran faces on several fronts.
Economically, Iran is grappling with severe challenges that have compounded after years of domestic and international pressures. International sanctions have restricted Iran’s access to global financial markets, while internal mismanagement and pervasive corruption have left its economy teetering on the edge of collapse. Inflation has soared to unprecedented levels, eroding citizens’ purchasing power and fueling widespread discontent.
The Iranian rial continues to depreciate against major currencies, making imports outrageously expensive and exacerbating shortages of essential goods, including food and medicine. Unemployment remains alarmingly high, particularly among the youth, further deepening public frustration. These economic woes not only undermine the regime’s ability to sustain prolonged military engagements but also threaten its domestic stability.
From a sociopolitical perspective, the Iranian government is navigating a precarious situation. Nation-wide anti-government protests have erupted in recent years, driven by economic despair, political repression, and demands for greater freedoms. A full-scale war with Israel could ignite these simmering frustrations into a full-blown uprising, jeopardising the survival of the Islamic Republic. Iranian leaders are acutely aware of this risk, understanding that domestic instability could cripple their ability to respond effectively to external threats.
Adding to these pressures is the recent speech by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who directly addressed the Iranian people. Netanyahu’s call for a "free Iran" was perceived by Tehran as a provocative attempt to incite rebellion against the regime. Iranian officials view such statements as part of a broader strategy by Israel and the United States to destabilise their government. This perception further complicates Iran’s calculus, as it seeks to project strength without exacerbating internal dissent.
Another reason for Iran’s hesitation in taking immediate military action against Israel is the looming presence of Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency. With Trump poised to take office again, Iran is likely calculating the potential consequences of provoking a US administration that has historically taken a hard-line stance toward it.
Trump's policies have often been in strong support of Israel, and his return to power would likely see continued or even escalated support for the Israeli government. This strategic calculation might encourage Iran to adopt a more cautious approach, avoiding actions that could trigger a broader regional conflict involving the US and Israel, both of which would be formidable adversaries in such a scenario.
Military constraints
While Iran boasts significant manpower, its military capabilities face critical limitations. Technologically, it lags behind Israel, which is armed with state-of-the-art systems supported by the United States. Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles, though formidable, is insufficient to counter Israel’s advanced missile defence systems like the Iron Dome and David’s Sling. These limitations deter Iran from engaging in an all-out war it is unlikely to win.
