The US and Israel carried out strikes across Iran, and Tehran has retaliated by striking US/Israeli assets across the region. Could this turn into the regional war analysts have been warning about?
Military strategists have long warned that war should be waged only if those waging it know what they want to achieve. Herein lies a problem: Washington's war aims in Iran are incoherent.
Tehran isn't likely to easily fold if/when Trump attacks. This means that the longer a military confrontation drags out, the more untenable Washington's position becomes.
Trump will be wondering if a military confrontation with Iran would help or hurt his dwindling popularity at home, making his decision to strike one of the riskiest bets of his presidency
If the ceasefire collapses, China has an interest in getting the two sides back to the table, but it would be a difficult task given Tehran's deep mistrust of the US and Israel.
Israel's parliament approved a draconian death penalty law last week that only applies to Palestinian prisoners, in a move that the UN says "would constitute a war crime"