Politics

Iran's nuclear programme and the possibility of military action

The US and Israel want Tehran to completely dismantle its nuclear infrastructure, which it will not do. If they do decide to strike, Iran has limited options on how to respond.

Diana Estefanía Rubio

Iran nuclear sites

Iran's nuclear programme and the possibility of military action

Majid Rafizadeh

last update on 29 Mar 2025

As of March 2025, the ongoing standoff between the United States, Israel, and Iran over the latter's nuclear programme reached a critical juncture. Tensions escalated after US President Donald Trump issued a two-month ultimatum for Iran to accept a new nuclear deal where it would be required to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure and end all enrichment activities—a demand that Tehran is unlikely to accept.

Instead, it insists on retaining its nuclear programme under conditions similar to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which allowed Iran to continue some nuclear activity while ending others in exchange for sanctions relief. The stark contrast in positions between the two parties has led to growing concerns about the possibility of military intervention, with Israel reportedly contemplating military action against Iran's nuclear sites.

In early March 2025, Trump delivered a direct ultimatum to Iran in a letter addressed to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It demanded that Tehran agree to a new nuclear deal within two months or face unspecified consequences.

The demands were clear: Iran must completely dismantle its nuclear infrastructure, including halting all uranium enrichment activities and ballistic missile programmes, and agree to open, unfettered access to all nuclear facilities for international inspectors. The implication was that failure to comply with the terms would lead to military action, which was further cemented by National Security Advisor Michael Waltz's comments on Face The Nation that "all options are on the table."

Broader US strategy

The ultimatum is part of a broader American strategy aimed at containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions and curtailing its influence in the Middle East. The Trump administration is seeking a comprehensive agreement that would deprive Iran of any path to nuclear weapons development by dismantling its nuclear infrastructure altogether.

For his part, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, swiftly rejected Trump’s outreach, referring to it as a “deceptive ploy.” Full nuclear disarmament is simply not an option for a country whose national security heavily relies on its nuclear capability.

Iran wants a deal similar to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, albeit with certain adjustments. The JCPOA allowed Iran to retain a limited nuclear programme under strict limitations in exchange for sanctions relief. Iran insists that any new agreement must give it some autonomy over its nuclear programme and also include provisions for lifting sanctions that have significantly strained its economy.

Iran's preferred framework would likely involve keeping its nuclear enrichment programme intact, with some limitations. However, its missile programmes are not up for discussion. Iran sees them as vital to national security— especially amid an increasingly hostile US and Israeli presence in the region. For their part, Israel and the US see these programmes as a direct threat to regional security and stability.

If there is a strike on Iran, deciding how to respond will be difficult. While Tehran is keen to avoid full-scale conflict, it also cannot afford to back down entirely.

A real possibility

With no agreement in sight and diplomatic efforts faltering, the possibility of military intervention has become a very real possibility. Israel has long complained about Iran's nuclear programme, viewing it as an existential threat.

In recent weeks, reports that Israel is contemplating preemptive strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities have emerged. Israeli officials have reportedly discussed military options with their American counterparts. According to a US intelligence report published in the Washington Post, Israel is likely to attempt a strike on Iran's Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities in the first six months of 2025.

Israel's military capabilities have evolved to the point where it is now well-equipped to carry out such difficult strikes. It not only possesses highly sophisticated intelligence-gathering capabilities, but its air force is one of the most advanced in the world. It has heavily invested in developing long-range missiles and precision-guided munitions capable of hitting targets deep inside Iran.

However, while Israel is capable of launching air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, carrying out such an attack is no easy feat. Iran's nuclear sites are heavily fortified and dispersed across the country, making them difficult to target and destroy. Israel has acknowledged that it would need US help, particularly in the form of advanced bombers and intelligence support. According to reports, Israel wants US stealth bombers capable of penetrating Iran's air defences and delivering precision strikes.

The success of any military operation against Iran largely depends on US-Israel coordination. The two countries have conducted joint military exercises in the past and have closely coordinate on military and intelligence matters. If Israel were to take military action, it is almost certain that the US would provide logistical and intelligence support and possibly even direct military assistance.

AFP — The reactor at the Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran, 1200km south of Tehran.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been closely monitoring Iran's nuclear activities and has reported concerning developments over the past year. According to recent IAEA reports, Iran's nuclear programme has reached a critical level, with uranium enrichment levels now approaching weapons-grade material.

As of February 2025, Iran has accumulated over 250 kilogrammes of uranium enriched to 60%—a significant step toward acquiring a nuclear weapon. This stockpile— coupled with Iran's advanced centrifuges—has sounded alarms in Washington, Tel Aviv, and other capitals around the world.

The IAEA has warned that Iran is at a point where it could produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon in a matter of months. This has heightened concerns about the possibility of a nuclear breakout, which could trigger a regional arms race and further destabilise the Middle East.

Limited options

As the situation grows more dire, Iran is finding that it has increasingly limited options. Its ability to resist external pressure is increasingly constrained by domestic political and economic challenges.

OMAR HAJ KADOUR / AFP — A portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is pictured with its frame broken in a Syrian regime's Political Security Branch facility on the outskirts of the central city of Hama following its capture.

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria—a key, longtime ally of Iran—was a major strategic blow that weakened its foothold in the region. Furthermore, its economy remains under significant strain due to international sanctions, making it increasingly difficult for the government to maintain its hardline stance.

If there is a strike on Iran, deciding how to respond will be difficult. Retaliation against the US or Israel could lead to full-scale conflict, which Iran cannot afford and will be keen to avoid. But having said that, it also can't afford to back down entirely.

A confrontation over Iran's nuclear programme could soon transpire, adding more fuel to a region already at boiling point. For its part, Iran increasingly finds itself in the hot seat, facing rising pressure and dwindling options.

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