Iran

The struggle between the Guards and the Speaker

Qassem Soleimani spent years building a network of pro-Iranian proxies or state allies in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. Syria fell in December 2024. At the end of June, so did two others

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is Iran's dominant force militarily, politically, and economically, but there is growing pressure for its armed wing to merge with the Iranian armed forces

As a costly war draws to a close, Tehran has the chance to chart a new course in relation to its neighbours, but that requires a change of mindset

Saudi Arabia's steadfast position on Palestine challenges efforts to reduce resistance to a single political camp

In March there was talk of armed Kurdish fighters opening a second front in Iran's north-west, but it never happened—for several very good reasons.

Beijing can help Washington find a way out of its Gulf quagmire, but it won't come cheap. Xi Jinping may wonder aloud if the Americans still plan to defend Taiwan.

Even when appeals to open the Hormuz Strait come from a close ally like Beijing, they fall on deaf ears in Tehran. But hope is not yet lost.

The IRGC doesn't just defend the state, it runs it. To wave the white flag wouldn't just mean giving up its arms; it would mean dismantling the organisation and its patronage networks.

Rising oil prices will boost the Kremlin's coffers as costs over Ukraine mount, but a total defeat of Iran could lead to the deployment of radar stations in the north, near Russia's border