Politics

Where is Israel's unprecedented Iran attack taking the region?

While Israel's attack dealt a severe blow to Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure, the long-term impact remains uncertain as Tehran’s potential for retaliation introduces new risks

After Israel attacked Iran overnight on June 12, Tehran responded with a barrage of missile salvos hitting Tel Aviv, June 13, 2025.

Where is Israel's unprecedented Iran attack taking the region?

Michael Horowitz

last update on 13 Jun 2025

During the night of 12-13 June, as part of an operation dubbed “Rising Lion”, Israel carried out hundreds of strikes within Iran, focusing on a number of targets, namely nuclear sites, air defences, missile bases and Iranian officials. While details are still sparse, this is likely to be one of the most complex operations carried out by Israel in the country’s history—and according to Israeli sources, it is not over.

At 3:00 AM Tehran time, the first wave of missiles penetrated Iranian airspace, seemingly without being intercepted. Pictures later published by the Israeli army show that it used F-35 stealth fighters, which may have been capable of carrying out the first wave of strikes. Another tactic used in the past relies on the air-launched ballistic missiles that are fired far from Iran and can travel longer distances—a technique Israel likely used last year in two retaliatory strikes.

The most recent strike package included over 200 aircraft deploying more than 330 precision munitions, according to Israeli statements. The operation unfolded across the vast expanse of Iranian territory, with Israeli forces penetrating deep into Iranian airspace to strike nuclear facilities, military installations, and command centres across multiple provinces.

The operation appears to have caused significant damage in Iran, including the destruction of Iran’s Natanz Fuel Enrichment Site, the killing of the heads of Iran’s military and Revolutionary Guards and six nuclear scientists, and possibly Ali Shamkhani—a key advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

Israeli intelligence had identified and tracked the locations of Iran's top military commanders. In a series of precision strikes, Israel eliminated Major General Hossein Salami, Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces. Six nuclear scientists, including prominent figures Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, were also killed in targeted strikes.

Reuters — Rescuers work at the site of a damaged building, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025.

Air dominance

The coordinated strikes disabled most—if not all—of Iran’s air defences. There is little evidence of serious attempts by Iran’s air defences to take down Israeli planes, as opposed to a previous attack, during which images circulated of interceptors being fired. Israel appears to have gained complete operational control of the Iranian sky, which is not surprising given previous operations carried out last year that disabled some of Iran’s main air defence systems.

Though it involved mostly Israel’s air force, one of the most daring parts of the operation appears to have also been carried out by cells within Iran. According to multiple Israeli media outlets, Mossad commando teams deployed operational systems of precision-guided weaponry in open areas near the locations of Iranian surface-to-air missile systems. At the onset of the Israeli assault, these systems were activated, and the precision-guided missiles were launched to neutralise Iran’s remaining air defences.

Most notably, Israeli sources have even claimed that Mossad also established a base for explosive-laden drones that were smuggled deep into Iran long before the attack by Mossad agents. During the Israeli strike, the explosive drones were activated and launched toward surface-to-surface missile launchers located at the Asfajabad base near Tehran.

Not only did Israel use assets on the ground, but it also later published footage of the operations, showing Israeli commandos operating inside Iran. The release of this footage is unprecedented: Israel had, so far, tried to keep a low profile on its operations inside Iran, likely as a way to give Iran the opportunity to de-escalate. This time, Israel decided to publicise details of the operations, including footage of strikes against Iran’s air defences and ballistic missiles using smaller explosive-laden drones.

The use of such drones is reminiscent of Ukraine’s own operation “Spider Web” against Russia, just a few weeks ago, in which Kyiv used drones deployed from containers to target Russia’s strategic bombers. These attacks show how small drones are changing the face of warfare.

Beyond Iran's nuclear programme, Israel's attack hints at broader objectives. The name of the operation, "Rising Lion", is a not-so-subtle nod to the symbol of the Shah

Fatal deception?

The operation also involved a significant level of deception, as many observers believed Israel and the US were bluffing amid signs the day before suggesting an imminent attack. It appears Israel may have chosen to hide in "plain sight" rather than attempt a more complicated manoeuvre. As a result, there were clear signs that an attack may be upcoming (signs that I myself misinterpreted), including US orders to evacuate part of its embassy staff in several countries, including Iraq, Bahrain and Kuwait, a security alert in the Arabian Gulf and a key meeting between President Trump and US military leaders in Camp David.

However, instead of seeing it for what it was—namely, a prelude to an attack—Iran likely interpreted it as a pressure tactic, ahead of a round of negotiations that was due to take place on Saturday in Oman. Indeed, the timing suggested this could be the case: Iran had just rejected a proposal submitted by the US, while signalling that it was still open to continued negotiations—a message some in Israel viewed as a stalling tactic. The fact that negotiations were still scheduled to take place, and that President Trump was reported to have said he was against an Israeli strike, may have led Tehran to misread the situation.

This, of course, raises the question of whether the attack was coordinated between Israel and the US. It's clear that Tel Aviv gave Washington some amount of notice about the coming strikes, but the sequence of events points to the possibility that the Trump administration approved the attack and even played a key role in deceiving Iran. Some in Israel had—before the attack—claimed that strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities could, in fact, serve as a way to force Tehran into making a compromise—or else face an even broader escalation.

Trump's own post after the attack could align with this possibility: The US President said he had given Iran "chance after chance" to make a deal and warned that the "next already planned attacks" would be "even more brutal", calling on Iran to make a deal "BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE". Beyond that, the attack happened as Trump's two-month deadline for a deal expired—timing that's unlikely to be coincidental.

What next?

What is clear, however, is that Israel's attack sends the region into uncharted territory, and Thursday's strikes were touted as only the opening act. Israel has now gained complete air dominance in a target-rich environment and will be looking to go after several key nuclear facilities that it didn't hit in the first wave, including the deeply buried Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. Doing so would require more complex and broad strikes—possibly with the help of the US, though Israel may have its own capabilities.

Beyond Iran's nuclear programme, Israel's attack hints at broader objectives. The name of the operation, "Rising Lion", is a not-so-subtle reference to the previous symbol of Iran under the Shah, suggesting Israel may be looking not only to set back Iran's nuclear programme, but also to weaken the regime. The targeted assassinations would suggest the goal is far more ambitious than "simply" neutralising or delaying Iran's nuclear programme.

Iran will now have to decide how to respond. Some of Israel's first strikes appear to have hit ballistic missile depots and launchers, while Israel's ability to operate freely above Iran means Tehran is unlikely to win out in a longer conflict. To be clear, Iran's missile and drone arsenal can do real damage to Israel.

But Iran's defence system relied on key allies—and particularly on Hezbollah's missile arsenal—which has now been largely neutralised. Tehran could look to retaliate against the US—and some Iranian officials have already blamed Washington for supporting the strike—but this may encourage Trump to allow US involvement in future strikes.

AFP — The US Navy's aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower transits the Strait of Hormuz on November 26, 2023.

Iran's main escalatory option is to threaten the maritime and energy supplies in the Arabian Gulf. This possibility is already being considered and "priced" into market reactions. The international economic impact of the attack was immediate as oil prices surged over 6% on Brent crude markets before stabilising as traders assessed the likelihood of sustained disruption to energy supplies.

An expansion of the conflict to the Gulf would have significant global implications and likely compel the US to become involved. It may also anger one of Iran's main allies—China—whose supply depends on this critical route.

Israel's operation marks a significant escalation with far-reaching implications. While it dealt a severe blow to Iran's military and nuclear infrastructure, the long-term impact remains uncertain. Tehran's potential for asymmetric retaliation, regional destabilisation, and disruption of global energy markets introduces new risks.

Whether this strike deters further escalation or ignites a broader conflict will depend on the next moves by both Iran and the international community's ability to find a diplomatic solution that allows Iran to save face.

**At the time of publishing, Iran had responded to the attack, hitting Tel Aviv with two missile barrages, with a third one on the way.**

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