A US-Israeli attack on Iran has turned into a regional war, sending Brent crude prices over $100 a barrel, and throwing shipping, inflation, and monetary policy into turmoil
The north African nation wonders if it might step in, as war in the Middle East halts shipments of liquefied natural gas and leaves importing nations looking for alternatives.
Even if it stays on the sidelines of the US-Iran war, the country is fragile. Unlike larger economies that can absorb shocks in global markets, it has little room to cushion the impact.
Gulf states' central global location has made it the perfect transit hub for global travel, but with flights cancelled due to war, the industry is scrambling to fill the void
European gas prices have jumped by 30% after some big GCC oil and gas producers cut supplies, and now a vital maritime trade route is being threatened. The stakes have seldom been higher.
When states are attacked, authority gravitates towards institutions capable of mobilising resources, enforcing discipline, and coordinating a military response
There are few examples of successful US regime-change operations in history. And without permanent ground troop presence, these wins can easily be reversed.
Cairo and Tehran have been at loggerheads since 1979, but the Iranian threat has always acted as a check on Israeli ambitions. If Iran is completely defeated, Israel will reign supreme.