As the US and Iran head to talks in Geneva, competing forces are pulling Trump in opposite directions. There are only two "good" scenarios in front of him, and neither will be easy to achieve.
Trump seems to be ending America's longstanding role as crisis manager, preferring to use decisive force to change realities on the ground before negotiating
His meeting with Trump on 11 February, moved up a full week from its original date and just after talks began between Iran and the US, isn't a routine consultation between allies—it's an intervention
From Gaza to Ukraine, a coterie close to the president are wheeling and dealing their way through diplomacy's traditional terrain, scoring some wins but creating great confusion
Any agreement that restores traffic through the strait will bring immediate relief, but repairing the damage wrought by war—and restoring confidence—will take far longer
As states race to embed algorithms in systems of reconnaissance, targeting, air defence, and military decision-making, a new layer of risk is taking shape