Donald Trump

Twin fears of an inward-looking Donald Trump and a westward-looking Vladimir Putin have left officials in Europe's treasuries urgently revising their budgets to make room for more defence spending.

The US has been gripped by a Constitutional case that could have a big bearing on the election with a looming ruling a national issue. It has major implications for America's divisive politics. 

Any Trump overhaul of US foreign policy will be at its most important away from the Middle East

Only the large mobilisation of voters who rejected Trump enabled Biden to win in 2020. And with his age and centrist politics, he may be unable to mobilise enthusiastic support from the left.

Trump and Biden remain the unrivalled candidates of their respective political parties, but criminal trials and low approval ratings could hinder their chances of clinching the presidency

In areas of foreign policy, like China, the Middle East and, to an extent, Ukraine, there is likely to be continuity, but policies on climate change and domestic policy will be drastically different.