The world has significantly changed since Donald Trump's first term as president of the United States ended in 2021. Ukraine and Russia are at war, and Israel has carried out a war of revenge on Gaza, leaving an important part of the Middle East ravaged. China has accelerated its rise as a global power, and the world economy has been beset by turbulence.
Ahead of his return, the president-elect has not held back on his criticism of the man who replaced him in the Oval Office, hitting out at President Joe Biden’s handling of international relations. Trump has claimed that if he had remained as president after the 2020 election, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine, the war in the Middle East would not have happened, and China would have been more contained.
Of course, this talk is inherently hypothetical. The true test of Trump’s capabilities lies ahead. But it is already clear, from a pattern firmly established throughout his first term, that a familiar factor will return to world affairs on his inauguration on 20 January: an unpredictable American president. Leaders, diplomats, and analysts across the rest of the world are already trying to anticipate what will happen next, but in Trump’s track record lies some clues.
Among his more memorable decisions were his withdrawal from the Paris climate accord, moving the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, tearing up the deal with Iran over its nuclear programme, and meeting with Kim Jong-Un, the leader of North Korea. He also threatened to pull the US out of the World Health Organisation, and his transition team is once again looking at doing so.
Security and military matters will likely be major and immediate themes for the incoming administration. Such policies would normally be shaped by wider global interests and collective defence needs in response to complex global challenges, but Trump’s method is very different—much more narrowly focused on the US’s national interest.
With a background as a businessman in New York real estate—and a self-styled deal-maker—Trump has a different outlook. It tends to be more transactional than diplomatic. His way of conducting foreign policy led to serious disagreements with officials within his own administration and figures within the apparatus of the state. They were serious enough for people to resign, as was the case over the re-positioning of the US troops in Syria in 2019.
US role in NATO
Key people from inside Trump’s first administration have offered insight into how he worked as president and what he thought, including over an issue which could potentially be of immense importance to the global order: the exact nature of the US’s role as the main member of the West’s foremost defence alliance, NATO.
His former national security advisor, John Bolton, said in an interview that Trump does not understand the concept of collective defence alliances and has questioned why the US should defend Europe via NATO without receiving anything in return.
Throughout his first term, Trump was clear about these misgivings. He is very sceptical about the billions of dollars being spent on keeping US military bases and troops on the continent. NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte—who, in his previous role as the prime minister of the Netherlands, had a good relationship with Trump—was quick to meet with the president-elect after his election win.
Read more: Mark Rutte: It's important Ukraine negotiates from a position of strength
After their meeting in Florida, a spokesperson said in a brief statement that the president-elect and the secretary-general discussed a range of global security issues facing the alliance.
A few days before heading to the US, Rutte appeared at a press conference with France’s President Emmanuel Macron. He pointed to the importance of keeping NATO strong in the face of a key threat to it, the wider world and the US: cooperation between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. It felt like a message intended for Trump on how American and European security is interlinked and face common and serious threats.
The Middle East is always on NATO’s radar, as it is for the United States. In addition to Israel's security, countering Iran, the security of oil fields and energy transportation routes, and the fight against radicalism are the main preoccupations for the US in the region. We could expect the US to address these issues more within NATO in the coming period.
Trump’s statements on taking control of Panama Canal and Greenland, which he described as critical to American national security and his threat to turn Canada into part of the United States through economic force, were bombshells.
Two of these countries are NATO allies, and if Trump’s references are indicators of his approach during his tenure, NATO will not need any adversaries and enemies outside, as it will have to face in-house opposition.
Going Dutch
NATO’s next summit is due to be held in the Netherlands in the summer of 2025, where its leaders will gather for the first time after Trump’s return to power. By then, Trump may have already returned to his unorthodox tactics, which could involve repeating his threat to withdraw US defence support to NATO should its members fall short of their own military spending commitments of 2% of the size of each country’s economy, as measured by national gross domestic product.
The last time Trump took that line, governments made real progress toward those targets. And they did so faster than when NATO planners chased up the underspending. Now, 23 out of 32 NATO members are meeting spending targets, as opposed to ten countries in 2023 and three a decade ago. In effect, that means an additional $150bn for defence spending.
Trump has already said that he thinks the national 2% defence spending requirement should go up—a matter discussed at previous NATO summits. If Trump decides to pursue such demands with the same kind of relentless and unorthodox energy he has applied to other policies—such as applying tariffs to imports, not least from China, or moves to tighten immigration—NATO summits during his second term could be more complicated.
He has even suggested in the past that the US could withdraw from the alliance altogether, although that would be an extreme step, even for such an unpredictable president. He is much more likely to rely on lesser threats, such as pulling US troops out of strategic locations in Europe.
While Trump is likely to remain in NATO, he is expected to reshape it, and not just by reducing the share of the bill paid by the US. He may seek to ensure it better reflects his broader priorities for US security. Those may include the management of perceived threats posed by China and international issues—from the fight against terrorism to illegal immigration.
The Ukraine war
The war in Ukraine overlaps with Trump’s position on NATO. But it is even more of a pressing issue and will likely be a priority when he returns to the White House. Russian President Vladimir Putin seems determined to fight through his invasion's high human and economic cost because he has the upper hand. He occupies around a fifth of Ukraine's territory, and his forces are still advancing.
There was a new dimension to the war in the late days of the Biden administration after he gave Ukraine authorisation to use US-made missiles to strike into territory across the internationally recognised border into Russia.
Such an attack was carried out on 19 November, which stoked fears about Moscow’s position on a matter of the utmost seriousness: its nuclear doctrine.
Putin decided to update its terms. Under the redrawn doctrine, any attack from a non-nuclear state—if backed by a nuclear power—will be considered a joint attack on Russia. Such a scenario could meet the criteria for a nuclear response from what remains one of the world’s biggest such arsenals.
For Trump, the billions of dollars spent supporting Ukraine’s war effort has neither saved the country nor deterred Russia. He has set a test for himself, saying he can end the conflict within a day of taking office. The question is: how—and whether Trump will properly consult his NATO allies or even Ukraine itself, as he sets about trying.
