The impact of Donald Trump's return to the American presidency on Saudi-US relations remains unclear. However, the foreign policy priorities of his incoming administration could point to some challenges that need to be addressed. It is too early to predict a shift in Saudi-US relations, but they will likely follow a trajectory similar to Trump’s first term in office.
During his previous term, Trump emphasised diplomacy in the relationship between the two nations, strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia by focusing on mutual economic and security interests. The bilateral relations during that period were marked by multi-billion-dollar arms deals, joint efforts to counter Iranian influence, and American support for Saudi Vision 2030. These dynamics might see a resurgence in Trump’s new presidency, with an emphasis on deepening trade and investment ties while maintaining robust security cooperation.
Evolving geopolitical landscape
However, evolving and rapidly accelerating global challenges, including shifting geopolitical alliances, could steer the bilateral relationship in a different direction. The conditions shaping global and regional dynamics during Trump’s first term differ significantly from today’s geopolitical landscape. This divergence means we cannot rule out a change in his approach this time around. Profound changes in the regional and global political climate are reshaping US foreign policy and how American leaders tackle emerging challenges and opportunities.
Regionally, developments since October 7 2023, including the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, Israel’s war on Gaza, the broader conflict with Lebanon, and direct military clashes between Israel and Iran, have introduced new complexities. And threats posed by the Houthi movement in Yemen to international maritime security, along with ongoing developments in Syria, present additional challenges to regional stability.
Within this evolving geopolitical landscape, Saudi Arabia has adopted a de-escalatory approach, actively pursuing diplomacy to mitigate tensions. It has applied this strategy across the gamut of developments in the Middle East by engaging in diplomatic dialogue with Iran, refraining from potential normalisation with Israel without a clear path toward establishing a Palestinian state, and mediating in numerous other disputes.
More assertive approach
Saudi Arabia is leading these efforts as part of a reassessment of its regional leadership role, carefully calibrating its positions, fostering cooperation and development, and working to mitigate conflict. This proactive diplomatic approach reflects an independent foreign policy that occasionally diverges from US priorities.
For its part, the Trump administration will need to adapt to Saudi Arabia’s more assertive approach—one that prioritises its national interests, global standing, and independent decision-making while maintaining a balanced and neutral stance in international conflicts.
This stands in contrast to Trump’s established support for Israel’s expansionist policies, including recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and affirming Israeli sovereignty over the Syrian Golan Heights—positions that do not align with Saudi Arabia’s commitment to a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital.
Furthermore, Trump’s appointments to key positions in his administration—particularly those overseeing foreign, defence, and strategic policies—suggest continued strong support for Israeli policies and expansionist agendas.
Read more: Trump cabinet picks: A dream line-up for Israel's far right
Many of those expected to shape US Middle East policy in a second Trump term are staunchly opposed to resolving the Palestinian issue through a two-state solution. Most publicly reject the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and show little inclination to recognise or support Palestinian political rights. This foreshadows a likely continuation of policies that prioritise Israeli interests, further complicating efforts to achieve a balanced approach to peace and regional stability.
Saudi Arabia firmly insists that a political solution to the Palestinian issue is the optimal way to end the cycle of conflict that has drained Middle Eastern efforts over past decades. Trump’s unwillingness to shift his policies to accommodate Saudi demands could lead to a divergence in Saudi-US priorities. Riyadh is unlikely to compromise on its fundamental conditions for peace, and without an “effective solution” that satisfies all three parties, a stalemate seems increasingly probable.
On Iran, Trump has expressed explicit support for Israel’s targeting of Iran’s nuclear programme. This stance starkly contrasts with Biden’s approach, as Trump publicly endorsed the legitimacy of Israeli military actions aimed at neutralising Iran’s nuclear ambitions. During his first term, Trump maintained a hardline position on Iran, spearheading efforts to dismantle the 2015 nuclear agreement and imposing maximum pressure and sanctions on Tehran.
