Armed Kurds next door? Syria's new leaders know Türkiye's red line

Damascus needs to incorporate the YPG into its new national army, but Ankara is keen to disband the US-backed group. Cue the diplomacy.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets with Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Turkey, January 15, 2025.
Reuters
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets with Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Turkey, January 15, 2025.

Armed Kurds next door? Syria's new leaders know Türkiye's red line

A senior Syrian ministerial delegation has visited Türkiye for meetings with their counterparts in Ankara in the latest demonstration of links between the two neighbours.

Syria’s new Foreign Minister, Asaad al-Shaibani, Defence Minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, and intelligence chief, Anas Hattab, met Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and others. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also received them.

Al-Shaibani is no stranger to Türkiye, having lived and studied at a university in Istanbul. Announcing his visit on social media, he said Türkiye “never abandoned the Syrian people over the last 14 years”.

The subject of their conversations remains confidential, but Fidan and al-Shaibani were upbeat in the joint press conference that followed, with Fidan reiterating Türkiye’s offer to help the new Syrian government on defence, security and intelligence sharing, including “operational support” in its fight against Islamic State (IS) militants.

For his part, al-Shaibani said Damascus would ensure that Türkiye was not threatened from Syrian territory, adding that north-east Syria would come under the control of the central government and that the Arab identity of the region would be restored.

Adem ALTAN / AFP
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani (L) and Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan (R) shake hands following their joint press conference in Ankara on January 15, 2025.

Walking the talk

While the statements were encouraging, challenges remain. After half a century of al-Assad family rule, Damascus and its new rulers are working hard to promote the new Syria and garner support to rebuild the country.

Alongside Türkiye, the Syrian ministers have met various Arab and Western officials, including the foreign ministers of France, Germany, and Italy, plus delegations from the United States and the European Union. Al-Shabani also visited Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, seeking to reassure Syria’s regional neighbours.

The history and ideology of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) are of concern. Its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, once headed al-Nusra, a Salafist/jihadist organisation that fought al-Assad in the hope of establishing an Islamic state governed by Sharia law in Syria.

Both he and HTS—which led the campaign that removed al-Assad—have been at pains to distance themselves from their past associations, emphasising a new line of inclusivity and tolerance of minorities. For now, HTS is the dominant force in Syria’s new politics, yet the transitional leaders are unelected.

The priority is to establish a sustainable political system and a legitimate basis for governance. This will not be achieved overnight. It requires patience and time. Yet the rebuild is urgent, so time is not infinite. Delays may once more push Syria into crisis.

If Syria's new leaders can help Ankara with the Kurds, this would represent a dramatic shift, given the Assad regime's past support for the PKK

In March, the HTS interim government is set to be replaced by an inclusive transitional government. A national dialogue conference attended by around 1,200 people representing all segments of Syrian society is set to convene in the coming weeks. This conference is expected to approve al-Sharaa as president until national elections can be held. During the transition, and while it drafts a new constitution, Syria will need support from the international community.

Ankara and the Kurds

Türkiye, with whom it shares a 911km border, played a role in ousting al-Assad and is set to play a role in the rebuilding. Its priorities are to eliminate the armed Kurdish groups (like the YPG) and facilitate the return of millions of Syrian refugees.

The YPG, which has links to the PKK terrorist group, has more than 80,000 fighters armed and trained by the US. Their ten-year relationship stems from a period in which the Americans and Kurds worked together to successfully target IS strongholds.

If Syria's new leaders can help Ankara with the Kurds, this would represent a dramatic shift, given that the two were on the brink of war in 1998 over Syria's support for the PKK and its leader, Abdullah Öcalan. His removal from Syria, the signing of the Adana Memorandum, and his later capture by Turkish intelligence calmed tensions.

Türkiye will not allow the YPG to maintain an armed and autonomous presence in north-eastern Syria because it sees this as a national security threat. It wants the YPG to be disbanded and for its non-Syrian fighters (including PKK militants) to leave Syria.

Reuters
Syria's de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, sits next to the newly-appointed defence minister Murhaf Abu Qasra on December 21, 2024.

Redefining relations

Recently, YPG leader Mazloum Abdi met al-Sharaa in Damascus. The two discussed how the YPG could fit into any new national Syrian system, whether it would join the army (and how), whether Kurdish-majority areas would be granted a form of local governance in administrative matters and the future of oil fields in the YPG-controlled areas, which will be a vital source of revenue.

Syria's new rulers know that one of their priorities is to disarm the many armed militias across the country and incorporate them into a new national armed forces. Al-Sharaa says the armed groups have signed up to this, but that is not quite the case.

The YPG has said that it does not object to being incorporated into a national army in principle but that the details need to be discussed. Meanwhile, in southern Syria, armed groups—some with links to regional countries—in Sweida, Daraa, and Quneitra also say they want to see how things develop before signing up.

Türkiye's relations with HTS and Syria's new commanders now need to be placed at the state level, with a proper legal basis. During the Assads' era, Türkiye and Syria signed the Adana Agreement in 1998 (which led to the PKK's expulsion).

In 2010, without the Adana Agreement being abrogated, the "Agreement on Joint Cooperation Against Terrorism and Terrorist Organisations" was signed between the two countries. However, because of the Syrian crisis that erupted in 2011—and al-Assad's violent crackdown—it never entered into force. Bilateral relations never recovered.

As for the US and its Western allies, concerns centre on the opportunity for IS to regroup in the period between al-Assad's army's dissolution and the formation of a replacement. Numerous IS fighters and their families are currently under lock and key in northern Syria, mainly in Kurdish-controlled areas. The YPG continues to exploit Western sensitivities over this.

Recent comments from US security officials seem more sympathetic to Turkish concerns over the YPG in Syria

Kurds' Western support

A Syrian-Kurdish delegation recently visited France. President Emmanuel Macron later said that France would not abandon the Kurds in Syria. Fidan took umbrage, saying Türkiye would deal with the US on the matter, not a small European country.

Donald Trump—who returns to the White House on Monday— has yet to elucidate an American policy on Syria. His preference for withdrawing US troops is well known from his first term in office, but as was the case then, a full withdrawal is unlikely.

Read more: Will Trump withdraw US troops from Iraq and Syria?

According to what Marco Rubio—Trump's choice for Secretary of State—said in the confirmation hearing in the Senate, the US will not want to abandon its Kurdish partners, but nor will it want to antagonise Türkiye, a fellow NATO member. Interestingly, recent comments from US security officials seem more sympathetic to Turkish concerns.

According to unverified reports, the US is acting as an interlocutor between Ankara, Damascus and the YPG. And in recent days, US State Department Deputy Undersecretary for Political Affairs John Bass visited Türkiye for the second time in quick succession. While not negative, the statements that followed inferred that the Turks and Americans were still at odds in certain areas.

The fate of the YPG, and a lot of the future of Syria, may depend on what the two NATO allies agree.

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