What are the biggest challenges facing the GCC in 2024?
Israel's war on Gaza, rising US-China tensions, the stubborn war between Russia and Ukraine, and the worsening effects of climate change top GCC leaders' concern this year
AFP
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) during a summit in the Saudi capital Riyadh on 20 October 2023.
What are the biggest challenges facing the GCC in 2024?
Despite some policy and directional differences among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the occasional disputes between its member states, the six GCC nations — who share geographic, historical and cultural commonalities — confront nearly identical and quite serious challenges imposed by both regional and international environments.
The year 2023 stood out as one of the most challenging years the GCC countries have faced, which will undoubtedly impact their security policies this year and well into the future if left unaddressed.
Iran and its allies
Israel's war on Gaza posed the most serious threat to the GCC in 2023; its continuation complicates efforts to resolve it.
This could potentially expand into an all-out regional war between Iran and Israel or between the latter and Iran's proxies in the region. This, in turn, could inevitably draw GCC countries into this war in some shape or form and could expose vital GCC facilities to Iranian proxy strikes.
Israel's war on Gaza posed the most serious threat to the GCC in 2023; its continuation complicates efforts to resolve it.
The war in Gaza has reinforced the belief in the GCC that the Iranian threat remains the most pressing challenge facing the bloc.
Despite the various policies adopted by GCC states to contain the Iranian danger — such as Kuwait's "strategic hedging" policy and Qatar and Oman maintaining distinct trade and diplomatic relations with Iran — Iran continues to pose a real threat.
Iran's plans for dominance are no secret. The American handling of the regional spillover from the Gaza war over the past 100 days — particularly in its brushings with Iran's proxies — clearly shows Tehran's willingness to leverage its influence and tools in the region.
The popular support and sympathy for Iran's proxies in the region now because of the so-called 'resistance' war against Israel is another development GCC states are grappling with.
On its part, the US reaction to Israel's war on Gaza thus far has been to fully support Israel while simultaneously trying to prevent the conflict from turning into a regional war between Iran and Israel.
To this end, the US sent its largest aircraft carrier as part of this equation but announced last month it would be pulled back in an attempt to deliver a clear statement to Israel – specifically the right-wing government in Tel Aviv – that Washington will not be dragged into a regional war with Iran.
Aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) in the Ionian Sea, part of the Mediterranean Sea, 04 October 2023.
On the Israeli-Lebanese border, there have been limited clashes between Tel-Aviv and Hezbollah; in the Red Sea, the Houthis are disputing maritime shipping —particularly in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.
Diminishing US role
The war in Gaza has erupted amid a scaled-back American role in the region, which has left GCC countries feeling exposed — especially in light of the rising strength and influence of Iran and its proxies. Meanwhile, no alternative apart from Washington exists to ensure Gulf security.
As a result, the Iranian challenge will strongly influence the thinking and measures of the GCC countries in 2024, undoubtedly prompting them to unite and take concerted action to confront this threat.
Regional and international stability is largely dependent on the security and stability of the Gulf — both politically and economically. The GCC countries constitute a global strategic axis on the map of oil markets, financial wealth, and maritime security.
US-China tensions
Meanwhile, US-China tensions represent another serious challenge for the GCC. Despite the noticeable rapprochement between the United States and China in late 2023, this could fall apart in 2024 due to Washington's deepening policies and security alliances in the Pacific to undermine Chinese power.
This fear was amplified by the results of the Taiwanese presidential elections, which the Progressive Democratic Party — a staunch supporter of Taiwan's separation from China and one of China's staunchest adversaries — won.
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) president-elect William Lai Ching-te (C-L) and vice presidential candidate Hsiao Bi-khim (C-R) celebrate after winning the presidential elections in Taipei, Taiwan on 13 January 2024.
The ramifications of this tension – particularly concerning Taiwan – have caused significantly disrupted global oil prices. The GCC countries still rely heavily on energy revenues as a source of national income.
This tension also hampers the safety of Gulf oil exports and imports – crucial resources needed for the growing social and urban development plans of the GCC countries, especially the highly vital semiconductors essential for fulfilling ambitious GCC plans in clean or alternative energy.
GCC countries view US-China tension as a formidable challenge to the sustainability of the American presence in the region and the opportunities for China to inject more funds and investments into the GCC countries – particularly in infrastructure, within the context of its Belt and Road Initiative and the prospect that Beijing could play a bigger security role in the region as an alternative to Washington.
The struggle between the US and China — particularly in the Pacific region — to constrain each other against the backdrop of an evolving world order could leave a vacuum in the Middle East.
This will provide aspiring regional powers – especially Iran and Turkey – a golden opportunity to fill this strategic void.
US-China tensions could result in the formation of several counter-alliances, forcing GCC countries to choose sides.
Global tension and alliances
The danger of US-China tension lies in the possibility of the world getting dragged into a wider conflict, where counter-alliances and regional and international rivalries could emerge, along with new conflict zones.
In this scenario, Iran-China relations could significantly converge to counterbalance American influence. Beijing could also use its North Korean card to exert pressure on Japan and North Korea. Then, the US could strengthen its alliance with India to undermine Beijing's influence in the Indian Ocean.
Thus, the world could slip into the formation of several counter-alliances, forcing GCC countries to choose sides and disrupting their plans to diversify their partnerships, interests and priorities.
Given this, it can be said that the US-China conflict in 2024 is one of the biggest challenges facing the GCC countries, especially in balancing their relationship with their two strategic partners.
Ukraine war
The Ukrainian war will also continue to pose a threat to the GCC countries in 2024. The outcome of the war remains unclear, especially given Western confusion in dealing with the war, particularly in light of Russia's dominance.
A Ukrainian rocket launcher fires a Grad missile towards Russian positions near Bakhmut in June 2023.
The war could very well escalate in 2024, which exacerbates challenges for GCC countries as disruption in the global energy market continues. This could affect Gulf maritime security, imports of food, and the growing economic and military relationships between Russia and the GCC countries. It will also impact the roles of regional powers – especially Turkey, and its extension of influence in the region.
Climate change
The issue of climate change, particularly global warming, is one of the most dangerous threats facing the world but poses a very specific threat to the GCC – given that the Gulf region is one of the hottest areas globally, with temperatures reaching nearly 60 degrees Celsius in the summer.
This exacerbates environmental and social disasters, such as increased rates of drought, desertification, floods, and reverse migration. In the past five years, some Gulf countries, have seen climate-related disasters manifest.
However, global efforts to confront this mounting challenge have not been seriously tackled. The GCC countries are among the most proactive nations in facing the challenge of climate change, initiating ambitious policies and plans in the field of alternative energy.
According to environmental experts and reports from international organisations, especially the World Bank, the summer of 2024 is expected to see an unprecedented historical temperature increase.
The world has already entered a stage of unprecedented global warming in 2023, intensifying the environmental disasters resulting from it.
At the Gulf level, these disasters will be more dangerous in terms of their severity and economic damages – whether in terms of addressing them or impacting industrial and agricultural production and internal migration levels.
The issue of climate change, particularly global warming, is one of the most dangerous threats facing the world but poses a very specific threat to the GCC – given that the Gulf region is one of the hottest areas globally.
A Libyan man standing in an inundated area near a submerged vehicle in the wake of floods after the Mediterranean storm "Daniel" hit Libya's eastern city of Derna in September
A challenging year
GCC countries face extremely serious challenges in 2024, making it one of the most challenging years since their independence in the 70s.
The lingering threat of Iran will continue to dominate leadership discussions, along with the threat of rising US-China tensions, the stubborn war between Russia and Ukraine, and the worsening effects of climate change.
Amid these challenges, GCC countries will likely ramp up cooperation to collectively address them. Moreover, the prospect of establishing a robust GCC military force and a stronger economic union seems to be an increasing possibility.
