Iran and Israel face off on Middle East chessboard

The Red Sea has emerged as a third front in the continuing conflict between Israel and Hamas after Gaza and Lebanon.

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Iran is moving its proxy pieces around on the Middle East chessboard to pressure a ceasefire in Gaza while Israel tries to drag the US into a regional war.

Iran and Israel face off on Middle East chessboard

Khaled Hamadeh

last update on 19 Jan 2024

The Red Sea has been the focus of world news in recent weeks, in particular after military strikes by the United States and United Kingdom against Houthi positions in Yemen on 12 January.

These bombing raids were aimed at compelling the Houthis to stop attacking ships heading into or out of the Red Sea in a busy trade route that passes alongside the western coast of Yemen, which the Houthis control.

Later, the US launched solo strikes, this time targeting a drone-guiding radar facility, as both London and Washington aim to make their point, both to the Houthis and to Iran.

The joint Anglo-American operation followed a UN Security Council resolution denouncing the Houthi offensives, demanding their immediate cessation, and authorising nations to defend their commercial interests from threats.

Punch and counterpunch

The US and UK say their strikes were in retaliation after 27 Houthi assaults on vessels since 19 November.

Their attacks, involving drones and missiles, have impacted more than 50 nations and targeted both cargo and military ships in the Red Sea.

Most notably, the Houthis filmed themselves hijacking the Galaxy Leader, a car carrier built in Poland, which sails under the flag of the Bahamas and is owned by a Japanese company and an Israeli businessman.

The Houthis detained its crew and relocated them to a Houthi stronghold off the Hodeidah coast, declaring that its actions on the high seas would continue until Israel ended its war in Gaza.

Biden's challenge lies in letting Israel maintain its strategic freedom while not triggering a wider regional conflict.

The US and UK gave prior warning, but after several days of quiet, Houthi attacks recommenced. US President Joe Biden said its bombing was with the support of the UK, Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands.

He said they "successfully targeted several Yemeni sites utilised by Houthi rebels, posing a threat to the freedom of navigation in a critical global waterway".

The strikes primarily targeted the Al-Dailami air base near Sana'a Airport, as well as facilities in the Hodeidah, Taiz, and Hajjah governorates.

Twitter — Photos of air strikes targeted Al-Dailami air base next to Sanaa airport.

These sites were linked to Houthi drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, coastal radar, and air surveillance capabilities.

Commander of the US Central Command (CentCom) General Michael Corella attributed the Houthi attacks on international shipping to Tehran's reckless conduct.

Slow stranglehold

The strikes may not grow into a broader regional conflict since neither the US nor Iran (which supports the Houthis) seems to want this to become a wider war, but it does highlight the global mismanagement of the Yemen conflict.

Joseph Votel, a former CentCom commander, felt the strikes were suitably aligned with the threat posed by the Houthis, adding that a decisive response to Houthi attacks was crucial for re-establishing deterrence.

The Red Sea has emerged as a third front in the continuing conflict between Israel and Hamas, and more broadly between the West and Iran, after the Gaza Strip and the Israeli-Lebanese border.

It represents the latest flashpoint for potential conflict escalation extending beyond regional boundaries.

The Red Sea has emerged as a third front in the continuing conflict between Israel and Hamas after Gaza and Lebanon.

To Israel's north, Hezbollah engages in daily confrontations with Israeli forces, escalating their forays ever since the Hamas attacks on 7 October.

To Israel's east, Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria have been attacking American military positions in those countries, leading to clashes.

To Israel's south, the Houthis are making the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait a game of Russian roulette for Western ships, whose owners and operators are naturally risk-averse.

Strategically, Iran is moving its proxy pieces around the Middle East chessboard in campaigns that can be both slow-paced and perilous, with Hezbollah having reportedly lost more than 200 fighters since 8 October.

Gaza as unifier

The three fronts share a common objective: achieving a permanent ceasefire in Gaza to halt the devastating attacks that have led to significant civilian casualties and widespread destruction.

This destruction and the severity of the conflict are key factors in South Africa's decision to accuse Israel of genocide at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Conflict on three fronts presents a complex dilemma for both Iran and the US. For Biden, they exacerbate regional challenges and threaten to undermine his alliances.

For Iran, it means striking a delicate balance between securing tactical military advantage and avoiding the dangers of being drawn into a full-scale regional war.

The White House has said it does not want a head-on collision with Tehran despite confronting its proxies.

"We're not looking for conflict with Iran," said the National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. "We're not looking to escalate, and there's no reason for it to escalate beyond what happened over the last few days."

However, he also acknowledged that continued international assaults could bolster local support for the Houthis, owing to sympathies for the people of Gaza, opposition to foreign intervention, and escalating anti-American attitudes.

The three fronts share a common objective: achieving a permanent ceasefire in Gaza to halt Israel's devastating attacks.

Your move next

Looking ahead, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden will likely witness increased militarisation and a more substantial Western naval presence.

Conversely, the American strikes let the Houthis shift the focus away from Yemen's internal turmoil, where it is under criticism.

EPA — Houthi militants in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on 11 January 2024.

It also enhances their standing within the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance and positions them as a significant regional entity that the US wants to neutralise.

Furthermore, a failure to secure a ceasefire in Gaza could lead to heightened tensions across the region, including more Houthi attacks.

Biden's challenge lies in letting Israel maintain its strategic freedom while not triggering a wider regional conflict.

For now, continuous low-impact skirmishes may increase Tehran's regional influence, but the rising temperature may not align with Tehran's long-term interests. It does not want a full-scale confrontation with the US and its allies.

Such a scenario would compromise Iran's expanding regional influence and severely impact its foreign policy. It may even provoke internal issues, especially in light of the protests that swept the country a year ago.

The US needs to ensure freedom of navigation and secure international trade routes in the Red Sea while side-stepping any Iranian traps. Easier said than done.

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