Russian resilience tests Western patience for Ukraine war

There were expectations that Russia's huge military losses would have turned the population against the war, but this has not happened.

A Ukrainian soldier looks out from a tank as he holds his position near to the town of Bakhmut, Donetsk region, on December 13, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
AFP
A Ukrainian soldier looks out from a tank as he holds his position near to the town of Bakhmut, Donetsk region, on December 13, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Russian resilience tests Western patience for Ukraine war

In the initial stages of the war in Ukraine, the impressive performance of the Ukrainian army and the failures of the Russian military created an impression that the war would develop in favour of Ukraine and that Russia would regret its invasion.

However, that's not quite how things are unfolding.

The bravery and sacrifices of the Ukrainians in defending their homeland have been admirable, but difficulties stemming mainly from the realities of international politics are taking their toll.

On the battlefield, the Ukrainian counter-offensive has yet to succeed. Gaining tiny pockets while suffering massive casualties cannot be considered an achievement.

Military experts point to the enormous losses that Russia has suffered in the war. Its war machine has suffered greatly but has not collapsed. In fact, it is thriving and is making advances in some places.

It has employed additional military assets and tactics, including electronic warfare and intensified use of drones. Soldiers are dying, but new ones are steadily replenishing their ranks despite the large number of young Russians fleeing abroad to avoid the trenches.

There were expectations that Russia's huge military losses would have turned the population against the war, but this also has not happened. Russia has historically been a country with a very high threshold for pain and suffering. Today, this still seems to be true.

Putin's authoritarian rule leaves no room for dissent. It is common practice for dissenting Russians to be jailed for very long periods — mostly without trial. This discourages many from speaking out against the war.

Reuters
A local resident walks in front of a building heavily damaged by Russian military strikes in the town of Orikhiv, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, December 13, 2023.

Read more: Reality sets in over Ukraine's losing war effort

There were expectations that Russia's huge military losses would have turned the population against the war, but this has not happened.

Isolation attempts not working

Additionally, the US and the West's efforts to isolate Russia internationally have not worked as effectively as hoped. Relations with China are an excellent advantage for Russia, which buys what the West no longer does. Russia's oil sales and income have increased compared to the pre-war period.

There is an international arrest order for Putin, but with no effect. He continues to be diplomatically active and very relevant. Just a few days ago, he was welcomed with full state protocol on the red carpet during his visits to the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

In many countries, Putin enjoys the positive image of a strong leader who stands up to the West in defence of his principles.

An emboldened Putin, who declared that he would run for a fifth term for president, said in a statement a few days ago that Russia is now fighting not only for its own freedom but the freedom of the whole world to create a fairer world order. Putin is trying to change his image from invader to saviour.

Ukraine's main fuel for its war effort is the military and financial assistance it receives from the West. That may be in jeopardy.

Ukraine's main fuel for its war effort is the military and financial assistance it receives from the West. That may be in jeopardy.

Greatest threat to NATO

The US and the European Union have been Ukraine's main supporters. Since the very outset, US President Biden has argued that if Russia is not defeated in Ukraine, it will become even more aggressive and pose a threat to Western countries, among others.

NATO has declared Russia the most significant and direct threat to the Allies' security, peace, and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area. 

Just after the war in Ukraine started, President Biden had said "we must commit to be in this fight for long. It will not be easy. There will be costs. There is a price we have to pay".

These words resemble Winston Churchill's calls on his people 85 years ago. But neither the conditions nor the hoped-for response are the same. In the 21 months since the start of the war, fatigue in the West may be growing faster than fatigue in Russia.

Read more: Zelensky makes last-ditch appeal to rescue Ukraine war effort

The bad news came last week from the US when the Senate turned down President Biden's $105bn budget request, $61bn of which was for Ukraine.

One reason for the rejection was unrelated; the US Republican senators tied the budget to the immigration issue, as they demanded stricter border controls on the southern borders of the US.

The other reason cited by the Senators was about Ukraine itself. The senators questioned the objective. "What is the end game?" they asked.

A Donald Trump win in the US elections will likely impact America's Ukraine policy. His policies are expected to differ from Biden's.

European division

Problems have also emerged within the European Union, another major supporter of the Ukrainian war effort. There are divergences among the member countries on the support given to Ukraine and the degree of the anti-Russia stance.

In that regard, Hungary has maintained its position since the outset of the war and has the toughest approach within the displeased group.

The EU Summit will be held next week to address the start of accession negotiations and a €50bn aid package to Ukraine.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has threatened to use its veto on both issues. More challenging days are yet to come as Hungary will assume the EU Presidency in July next year.

AFP
France's President Emmanuel Macron (R) gestures as he talks with Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban (L) as they attend a roundtable meeting of the European Council in Brussels on December 14, 2023.

The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan is fresh in everyone's memories, and the politics of the war in Gaza continues to draw worldwide condemnation of the self-declared champions of democracy and human rights.

A backtrack on support to Ukraine will further hurt the US's and the West's already battered image and trustworthiness and tilt the balance of popularity more in favour of Russia and China. 

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