China's silk road to the Middle East runs through Riyadh

China has emphasised that its engagement in the Middle East is strictly economic and has no intention of filling political or security vacuums left by the West. However, Bejing's assurances haven't eased their worries.

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China's silk road to the Middle East runs through Riyadh

With each step of rapprochement between China and Middle East and North Africa (Mena) countries, G7 members feel the prospects of losing economic and political footing in a strategic region located in the centre of the world and home to the largest energy and mineral reserves needed for the world’s future industries.

Is the establishment of a new alliance between China’s Silk Road Initiative and the strategic development visions of a number of Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, just a coincidence?

Is it also a coincidence that the Sino-Arab friendship is translating into tangible economic cooperation at a time when relations with traditional partners are on the wane, which negatively affects the chances of Western companies to maintain their primacy in taking up economic projects in the region?

From Washington to Paris, London and Berlin, there is a growing understanding that the Middle East is drifting further way from their sphere of influence and that the Russian war in Ukraine is accelerating the creation of a new world order — at their expense.

Is Napoleon Bonaparte’s famous saying – “Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the (white man's) world” – proving to be true?

Building upon common interests

At the 10th Arab-China Business Conference held in Riyadh this week, China and Arab countries agreed to “serve the common interests of the two parties within the framework of the visions and strategies of the Arab countries and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, so as to achieve the required economic revival and address the difficulties of development challenges.”

This excerpt from the meeting's communiqué reflects the mutual interest of both parties in economic integration and investment under the umbrella of soft diplomacy.

There will be a special focus on developing critical sectors, such as renewable energy, the digital economy, advanced industries, artificial intelligence, and innovation.

Al Majalla

These are the same sectors for which the European Union (EU) has allocated €300bn under the Global Gateway to compete with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative in countries of the Global South, including Mena countries. The United States also allocated $55bn at the end of last year’s US-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington to accelerate development and trade.

Read more: US-China competition in Africa heats up with Beijing in the lead

Saudi Arabia and several other Arab countries have taken a keen interest in China’s Silk Road Project — an initiative that includes massive investments to develop infrastructure, communications, technology, and industry in more than 70 countries at a total cost of $1tn.

This doesn’t mean Mena countries will abandon competing programmes — whether European or American — altogher, but merging Arab visions with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative will add new impetus to economic and investment cooperation between China and the Arab region, especially in Gulf countries that have large investment capabilities.

Saudi Arabia intends to capitalise on its strategic geographic position, financial capabilities, and oil and regional leadership to foster stronger economic relations between China and Arab countries.

It believes that participation in this new, modern Silk Road will help breathe life into the region, create diverse and promising opportunities for Arab youth, and increase the volume of a bilateral trade that has already exceeded $0.5tn.

Saudi Arabia intends to capitalise on its strategic geographic location, financial capabilities, and oil and regional leadership to foster stronger economic cooperation between China and Arab countries to help create promising opportunities for Arab youth.

Western apprehension

Sino-Arab cooperation is viewed unfavourably in Western and G7 which control 40% of the global GDP capitals. They fear that their traditional sphere of influence is slipping away.

On its part, China has emphasised that its engagement in the Middle East is strictly economic and has no intention of engaging in regional conflicts. 

Read more: Should the US be wary of Chinese military power in the Middle East?

It denies its desire to fill any vacuum that the United States may leave, stressing that it will support the countries of the region to resolve regional security issues, and will support peoples in exploring development paths independently.  This is an implicit reassurance to the West that its goals are economic, not political or cultural.

Read more: China lets Middle East states take the lead

This comes at a time when relations between some Arab countries and their historical partners are witnessing a lull that may benefit China, which has boosted its trade relations with Arab countries by about $200bn in two years after reaching $300bn during the Covid pandemic.

"In the last two years has become the main trading partner of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, while Beijing has become the biggest buyer of Saudi crude oil and is reaping the political benefits of its economic investments. China has become a new political player in the Middle East," according to a report in the French daily LeMonde.

On its part, France is apprehensive that its sphere of influence in the Middle East (especially in Lebanon) is dwindling, especially after its influence in North Africa has declined.

Paris has always claimed to have an Arab policy that differs from the positions of the United States and Russia on regional conflicts and is keen to get closer to Saudi Arabia.

This is especially true after Saudi Arabia's hosting of the 32nd Arab Summit in Jeddah and the restoration of its relations with Iran, as part of a Chinese initiative in March.

Read more: Will the Saudi-Iran deal reshuffle the regional security deck?

New opportunities for growth

According to Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan:  "This is an opportunity to work to strengthen and consolidate the historic Sino-Arab friendship, and to build a common future." 

"This new era will preserve peace and development and achieve prosperity, progress, and flourishing for the peoples of the region and the world."

This statement demonstrates the importance of balanced regional development that enhances the prospects for peace and stability and attracts investment.

The Arab region today appears to be in a better economic and political situation than it was a decade ago during the Arab Spring. The total output of 22 countries rose to more than $3.5tn – exceeding those of France, Portugal, and Greece combined.

The Arab region today appears to be in a better economic and political situation than it was a decade ago during the Arab Spring. The total output of 22 countries rose to more than $3.5tn – exceeding those of France, Portugal, and Greece combined.

Added to this is the region's rich natural resources, human capital, and strategic geographical location in the centre of the world, allowing it control over the entrances and exits of the most important corridors of the world trade route, including the Strait of Gibraltar, the Suez Canal, Bab Al-Mandab, the Gulf of Oman, Shatt Al-Arab, and the Arab Gulf.

Read more: The invisible war in Middle East waterways

Comparing trade numbers

China is currently the largest trading power with total exports of $3.3tn – exceeding the United States ($1,75tn) and Germany ($1.62tn); France's exports were estimated at $585bn and Hong Kong's at $670bn last year, according to Statista.

China's trade revenues with Arab countries went from $37bn in 2004 to $244bn in 2018 and then to $300bn in 2021 before reaching $430bn last year, according to Arab sources. This is four times higher than it was 15 years ago.

According to a Chinese foreign ministry report, the volume of China's trade exchange with Mena countries amounted to $507bn. It's a rapid growth outpacing all other global markets, up by 27% year-on-year, versus a 15% increase with ASEAN countries, a 5.5% increase with the EU, and a 6% increase with the United States.

China's trade revenues with Arab countries went from $37bn in 2004 to $244bn in 2018 and then to $300bn in 2021 before reaching $430bn last year. This is four times higher than it was 15 years ago.

Conversely, China imports half of its oil and gas from Arab countries; Saudi Arabia is China's biggest energy exporter, with bilateral trade with China reaching $106bn last year.

According to the International Monetary Fund, China will contribute a third of the global economic growth rate for 2023 after a performance decline in the US economy and the contraction of some EU economies, mainly Germany.

According to Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, China and Saudi Arabia are set to strengthen their energy transport partnership through promising joint investments. China's total oil imports last month were more than 12mn bpd. Saudi Arabia, China's biggest oil exporter, is also interested in exporting electricity to India.

Reuters
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud speaks with Dan Murphy during the 10th Arab-Chinese Businessmen Conference in Riyadh on June 11.

On his part, Saudi Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih said, "Our Arab homeland possesses civilisational and cultural assets, human and natural resources; this qualifies it to assume an advanced and leading position and achieve a comprehensive revival of our countries and peoples in all fields."

The launch of a new, modern Silk Road between China and the Arabs is undoubtedly an important turning point in regional and international changes. The presence of Chinese President Xi Jinping, attending the first Arab-Chinese summit in Riyadh, was a milestone in the relations between the two countries.

GettyImages
China's leader Xi Jinping (centre) walks with Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman (right), following an official welcoming ceremony at the Palace of Yamamah in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on December 8, 2022.

Read more: China-Arab Summit signals potential of new era

The economic summit was considered the beginning of a new era of Arab-Chinese relations. The Chinese Foreign Ministry called it the largest and highest-level diplomatic event between China and the Arab world since the founding of the People's Republic of China.

Chinese investment

Meanwhile, Chinese companies are carrying out (or contributing to) large projects in a number of Arab countries estimated at 200 projects, including the 250m Mohammed VI Tower in Rabat at a cost of about $400mn, a renewable energy plant in Egypt, the launching of satellites in Saudi Arabia and Algeria, and a centre abroad for satellite navigation in Tunisia.

In Morocco, Chinese companies are building a tech hub in the city of Tangier and a pharmaceutical and vaccine factory south of Rabat. The Chinese company Gotion High Tech, which specialises in electric transport technology, also signed a memorandum of understanding to build a battery manufacturing ecosystem for electric cars in Rabat worth $6.5bn.

According to Chinese media, 18 Mena countries are involved in the Global Development Initiative; the Arab-China summit held in Saudi Arabia has strengthened Beijing's position as an influential power in the world by expanding its presence in the Middle East and strengthening its position as a strategic competitor of the United States on the international stage.

China-Arab cooperation is currently moving toward a new investment partnership, especially in the fields of port infrastructure, railways and technology, to keep pace with the global trend toward the digital economy.

China-Arab cooperation is currently moving toward a new investment partnership, especially in the fields of port infrastructure, railways and technology, to keep pace with the global trend toward the digital economy.

These visions complement the goals of China's Belt and Road Initiative, which, in turn, focus on infrastructure development and technological connectivity among acceding countries.

China's about-face

Fifty years ago, when the Cold War between East and West was at its height, the Communist People's Republic of China was a poor country in the Global South that wasn't even able to meet the food needs of its people, who were facing famines, epidemics, and floods.

It was at that time that the G7 came into being after the 1973 energy crisis to defend the interests of the "free world" and to protect the capitalist economy. At the time, Henry Kissinger warned of  "the dangers of the rise of China and its impact on the free world," drawing inspiration from famous omens about the Yellow Dragon.

Half a century later,  China has reversed its fortunes to become the world's second-largest power, and harbours ambitions to be the first — dethroning the United States.

Beijing seems to be on course to snap up most of the cake in the developing and emerging worlds after the demise of the European Union, which has become an economically "sick man" due to the Ukraine war and a politically "sick man" due to the tragedy of migration from the Global South.

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