Egypt treads carefully on the path to normalisation with Iran

From friend to foe

Cairo and Tehran turned from friends to foes in the immediate aftermath of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, which ended the rule of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and instituted a regime of mullahs in Iran in his stead.

Apart from grieving for the downfall of a friend from Tehran's saddle, like other Arab states, Egypt was concerned about the ideological shifts happening in Iran and its policy of exporting the Islamic Revolution.

Seeking refuge, Iran's deposed shah turned to Egypt, which rolled out the welcome mat for him. This fuelled Tehran's anger, leading to a decades-long grudge held against Cairo.

When he died in July 1980, the shah was buried inside an ancient mosque in southern Cairo, where his death anniversary is marked every year by his family members, including his widow, Farah Diba.

With time, resentment toward Cairo only intensified. Tehran was vehemently against Egypt's peace treaty with Israel in 1979, signed by President Anwar Sadat. Then, Cairo's backing of Baghdad during the Iran-Iraq war further angered Tehran.

When Sadat was assassinated in October 1981, Iran celebrated the event by naming a street in Tehran after his assassin.

Since then, Cairo has been outraged over Iran's destabilising actions in the region, which have jeopardised Egypt's strategic interests. With Iran expanding its grip in the region — one Arab country after another — Egyptian influence was subsequently reduced.

Egypt used to be the dominant political, military and cultural force and influence in the region before Iran's entry.

In recent years, Iran's backing of the Houthi militia in Yemen set off alarm bells in Cairo — especially after the Yemeni militia started attacking oil carriers and vessels traversing the Bab el-Mandab Strait on the way to the Suez Canal.

Fence-mending efforts

The latest meeting between the foreign ministers of Iran and Egypt appears to be the crowning moment of months of low-profile diplomacy and mediation.

Capitalising on the momentum of the resumption of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran earlier this year, Egyptian and Iranian officials have been holding preliminary talks over the past few months through Omani and Iraqi mediation.

Cairo and Tehran have been trying to reach a minimum degree of normalcy since the two countries cut off their diplomatic ties in 1979.

In 1991, the two countries agreed to appoint mutual chargés d'affaires. In 2003,  former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak met Iranian president Mohammad Khatami — the first encounter between the two countries' leaders since ties were severed decades before.

Khatami's reformist approach fuelled optimism over the prospect of renewed relations. However, this optimism proved short-lived.

There was a thaw in the two countries' frosty relations following Mubarak's 2011 downfall, with the Iranian government applauding the anti-Mubarak revolutionaries in Cairo's Tahrir Square and then Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, visiting Cairo in February 2013.

However, these mutual advances came to a screeching halt because of Iranian policies in the subsequent years, including Iran's destabilising regional policies.

However, China-brokered normalisation of ties between Riyadh and Tehran in recent months breathed new life into the reconciliation drive between Cairo and Tehran. 

Read more: Why China is mediating in the Middle East

In May this year, Abdollahian expressed hopes that his country and Egypt would take mutual steps to enhance their relations.

The same month, Iran's supreme leader said he would welcome restoring full diplomatic ties with Egypt.

He said this in Tehran during a meeting with the Sultan of Oman, Haitham bin Tareq, who had just wrapped up a visit to Cairo and met Egypt's el-Sisi.

Of service

Egypt and Iran have since taken steps demonstrating a keen interest in improving relations between the two countries.

In March, Egypt eased entry visa requirements for travellers from several countries, including Iran. Then, in May, Egyptian officials said the two countries could exchange ambassadors "soon" and a meeting between el-Sisi and Raisi could happen before the year's end. Three months after that, an Iranian news agency said the re-launch of direct flights between Cairo and Tehran could happen soon.

Restoring relations with Tehran, some Egyptian analysts say, could greatly benefit Egypt. Cairo is particularly interested in restraining Al Houthis from attacking vessels crossing Yemen's Bab el-Mandab strait, which connects to the Red Sea and then passes through the Suez Canal before entering the Mediterranean waters.

The Suez Canal is a vital source of revenue for Egypt.

Read more: The Suez Canal: A lifeline to Egypt and crucial gateway for global trade

"Understandings between Egypt and Iran would also open the door for wider understandings on the Palestinian issue, especially given that Iran backs most armed factions in the Gaza Strip," Mohamed Hassan Abulnour, the head of the Egyptian think tank, Arab Forum for Analysing Iranian Policies, told Al Majalla.

"Egypt plays a vital role in Palestinian issues and this means that improvements in relations with Iran would reflect positively on stability in places like Gaza," he added.

Calm in Gaza contributes to stability in Sinai — a territory Egypt paid dearly to free from terrorism in the past decade.

Read more: IS spectre disappears from Sinai for first time in decade

Better relations with Tehran will also help Egypt broker a settlement to problems in regional states, such as Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, where Egypt seeks a more active political and economic involvement.

The prospect of Iranian tourists flocking to Cairo would also boost Egyptian tourism and bring in much-needed cash. Egypt —which strives to raise its exports to $100bn annually from $50bn — may also find rewarding opportunities in Iran's huge market.

Fine line

Nevertheless, the reconciliation drive of the two countries faces several challenges ahead.

These challenges include tensions over maritime boundary delimitation in the Gulf region, especially between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait on the one hand, and Iran, on the other.

Observers in Cairo say that these tensions will deeply impact Egypt's reassessment of relations with Iran.

"The pace of reconciliation between Egypt and Iran is accelerating, but Egypt will make sure this reconciliation does not harm its own interests or Arab national security," Mohamed al-Orabi, Egypt's former foreign minister, told Al Majalla.

"Egypt cannot overlook fluctuating relations between Iran and Arab countries and Iranian policies in countries like Syria and Lebanon," he added.

There appears to be a profound realisation inside decision-making circles in Egypt of interconnections between Egypt's security and the security of other Arab states, especially in the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

El-Sisi repeatedly said that Egypt's army would be deployed immediately if any Gulf nation was threatened.

In mending fences with Iran, Egypt will also be walking a fine line between normalisation and avoiding upsetting the US and Israel — two countries that harbour hostile positions towards Iran.

Egypt and Israel coordinate on security and diplomatic levels, and Egyptian mediation between the Palestinians and the Israelis is always welcomed in Tel Aviv.

Cairo also has decades-long strategic relations with Washington and views multifaceted cooperation with the US as vital.

These considerations show that Cairo will think carefully before it takes the next step toward restoring relations with Tehran.