Is there a new opening for Egypt-Turkey reconciliation?

Cairo holds deep grudges against Erdoğan for backing Islamists in Egypt. Still, if the two countries can seize on the long overdue opportunity for reconciliation, both nations stand to benefit greatly..

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) shaking hands with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (L) in New Delhi, India, 10 September 2023, on the closing day of the G20 Summit.
EPA
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) shaking hands with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (L) in New Delhi, India, 10 September 2023, on the closing day of the G20 Summit.

Is there a new opening for Egypt-Turkey reconciliation?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, appeared optimistic about the prospects of relations with Egypt, after meeting his Egyptian counterpart, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi on 10 September.

He told reporters on his way home that the meeting was 'very positive'. Turkey, he added, wants to strengthen relations with Cairo.

Erdoğan also revealed that the Turkish and Egyptian foreign ministers and intelligence chiefs would arrange dates to exchange presidential visits in the coming period.

Erdoğan was quoted by the newly-appointed Turkish Ambassador to Cairo, Salih Mutlu Sen, noting that Egypt and Turkey would increase bilateral trade and revive their Strategic Cooperation Council.

He expressed optimism about Cairo's and Ankara's ability to achieve positive outcomes on many regional issues.

Nevertheless, complete reconciliation between Egypt and Turkey is easier said than done, observers in Cairo say, due to 'fundamental differences' between the two countries.

Erdoğan's meeting with el-Sisi in New Delhi was the two leaders' second, after a Qatar-mediated one in Doha in November 2022, during the opening of the FIFA World Cup.

Fallout history

Relations between Egypt and Turkey sharply deteriorated after the popularly-backed ousting by the Egyptian army of Muslim Brotherhood president, Mohamed Morsi, in 2013.

Erdoğan publicly protested Morsi's ousting and stood up for Brotherhood leaders and members — some of whom were involved in egregious crimes, including killing Egyptian police and army officers.

The Brotherhood's political rise in Egypt, following the 2011 downfall of the regime of longstanding president Hosni Mubarak, was a minor blip in the larger picture of Islamists' political empowerment across the region on the margins of the 'Arab Spring' — a series of revolutions that swept through the region, from Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria.

As Islamism expert Muneer Adeeb put it, Turkey had pinned much hope on this Islamist takeover of regional states, including Egypt.

"Turkey does not believe it belongs in Europe where it is geographically located but finds in Islamist movements across the Arab region a truer expression of its own cultural identity," Adeeb told Al Majalla.

"It believed its support for the Islamists who took over the reins of power in the region would serve its own interests," he added.

Morsi's ousting by the army was an act that represented two evils to Erdoğan:

1. The beginning of the collapse of his country's post-Arab Spring regional plans which were primarily based on the Islamist takeover of regional states

2. A new period of military tutelage over politics in a major Arab country where events usually reverberate across the region and – maybe – in his own country.

His fears in connection with the first of the two evils materialised a short time later when the Islamist regimes mounting the saddle of regional states started faltering one after another after the Brotherhood's downfall in Egypt.

A person waves a Turkish flag during a rally at Gundogdu Square in Izmir on August 4, 2016, protesting against the failed July 15 military coup attempt.

His fears concerning the second evil materialised in July 2016, when a group of Turkish army officers tried to stage a coup against his own government.

Erdogan believed support for Islamists who took over the reins of power in the region would serve his own interests.

Islamism expert, Muneer Adeeb

Egyptian grudge

Nevertheless, the Turkish leader's support for the Brotherhood has always been at the centre of vitriol in Cairo.

Apart from speaking for the group, he offered refuge to its leaders and allowed Brotherhood television channels to broadcast from Turkey.

Most of the Brotherhood leaders taking refuge in Turkey are wanted by Egyptian authorities for involvement in crimes related to terrorism and incitement — two things for which Egypt paid dearly in the past decade.

Apart from throwing its full weight behind the Brotherhood, which was banned and branded 'terrorist' by Egyptian authorities, Erdoğan's Turkey tried to besiege Egypt by gaining a foothold in its immediate vicinity, namely in Libya.

In November 2019, Turkey signed a maritime boundary delimitation deal with the western Libya-based Government of National Accord.

It also signed another deal with the same government for Turkish troops and military bases in western Libya. Egypt and other regional states, including Greece and Cyprus decried the two deals.

Read more: Libya floods: As families search for loved ones, politicians trade blame

The presence of Turkish troops in Libya was disconcerting to Cairo which saw in this presence a national security threat, given tense relations with Ankara and reports about its sponsorship of the transfer of jihadists to Libya from other countries, including Syria.

Turkish affairs specialist Mohamed Rabie al-Dehie said that Egyptian concern over these developments partially boiled down to Egypt's initial position toward the western Libya government.

"There are shared interests between Turkey and the western Libya government," al-Dehie told Al Majalla.

With fears over growing smuggling operations across the shared border with Libya, Turkish military presence in the neighbouring country prompted Egypt to tighten security along the border, including establishing a gigantic military base close to the border.

Libyan security forces affiliated with Tripoli-based interim Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh take part in a parade marking the 6th anniversary of the "liberation of Sirte" from IS on December 17, 2022.

El-Sisi also drew a red line in the desert around the Libyan city of Sirte and warned that attacks against the city by forces loyal to the western Libya government would be considered an attack against Egypt that would precipitate intervention by the Egyptian army.

Apart from throwing its full weight behind the Brotherhood, which was banned and branded 'terrorist' by Egyptian authorities, Erdoğan's Turkey tried to besiege Egypt by gaining a foothold in its immediate vicinity, namely in Libya.

Hydrocarbon craze

Enormous hydrocarbon reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean seem to drive Turkish moves in the region, including towards regional states, such as Egypt.

Some of these reserves have already been discovered off the Egyptian; Cypriot; Israeli, and Lebanese coasts.

Turkey wishes to become a main energy conduit to Europe and hopes to discover any reserves off its coast. But the series of maritime delineation deals Egypt sealed with regional states is dashing any Turkish hopes for such a role.

This is why Turkey hopes it can clinch a similar deal with Egypt. On many occasions, it has spoken out about how Egypt can benefit from such an agreement.

Egypt's founding of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum — an OPEC-like organisation of regional gas producers and consumers — also excludes Turkey, further diminishing Ankara's hopes of playing an influential role in the regional energy field.

Regional changes

The fledgling reconciliation between Egypt and Turkey comes within a regional context of major settlements amid changing regional conditions.

Nevertheless, the pace of Cairo's mending of fences with Ankara is so slow. Perhaps the meeting between the two leaders in New Delhi can hasten this process — especially given their apparent enthusiasm for better relations between their countries in this changing regional and international context.

Turkey wishes to become a main energy conduit to Europe and hopes to discover any reserves off its coast. But the series of maritime delineation deals Egypt sealed with regional states is dashing any Turkish hopes for such a role.

Against all odds, investment and trade relations between the two countries noticeably grew despite their standoff. Egypt and Turkey stand to benefit economically from repaired relations.

"The two countries have to take advantage of any opening to boost trade and investment relations, given Turkey's economic weight," Alia al-Mahdi, the former dean of the College of Economics and Political Science at Cairo University, told Al Majalla.

"Egypt badly needs investments, not only from Turkey but also from all other countries," she added.

A political settlement between the two countries can also smooth over other arenas where they lock horns, such as in Libya, Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Egypt — which hopes to become a regional energy hub — can complement Turkey's aspirations in the regional and international energy field, especially given Egypt's sprawling gas liquefaction facilities near the Mediterranean.

However, it is important that the two countries address the root causes of their tensions to ensure that their reconciliation will be durable, analysts said.

"These causes of tension need to be addressed first, including Turkish support for Islamist groups and Turkish intervention in the affairs of Arab states," al-Dehie said.

"Some of these problems have already been solved, while more work is needed to solve others," he added.

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