Ramped-up military drills in Egypt reflect US desire to keep its ally close

Nevertheless, the exercise had always been a yardstick to gauge Washington's approval or disapproval of Egypt's foreign and domestic policies.

They were called off whenever there was dissatisfaction in Washington with Cairo's conduct.

The exercise came to a screeching halt after 2009 and until 2017, including in 2011 against the background of the unrest that accompanied the popular uprising against longstanding President Hosni Mubarak.

In 2013, then US President, Barack Obama, cancelled the Bright Star exercise in protest against raids by Egyptian police on two camps of the supporters of late Islamist President, Mohamed Morsi.

In 2015, training was not held, against the background of political developments in Egypt, including Morsi's popularly-backed ousting by the army.

The exercise returned only in 2017, with a new chapter unfolding in Egyptian-US relations, one mostly marked by what then-president, Donald Trump, termed as 'good chemistry' with Egypt's el-Sisi.

The exercise is held this year while relations between the US and Egypt are being tested once again.

The US has openly criticised human rights conditions in Egypt and what it describes as 'Cairo's crackdown on free speech' in the past two years.

Ukraine war impact

Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine is causing Cold War winds to waft out from battlefields and into decision-making circles in Washington.

Strategists in Washington are once more ready to categorise others as being either with the US (against Russia) or against it (with Russia).

However, Cairo finds it increasingly difficult to completely align itself with the American worldview.

The war in Ukraine has taken a heavy toll on Egypt already, depriving it of billions of dollars in tourism revenues, forcing it to cough up more money for its imports, and jeopardising its food security.

Egypt has had to request a new loan from the International Monetary Fund, had to depreciate its currency three times since last year and has to sell its assets to the local and foreign private sector to bridge its yawning financing gap — one that is crippling its ability to honour its international obligations, including the repayment of debts and debt services.

Read more: Egypt's deal with the IMF comes with dramatic consequences for the economy

Egyptian decision-makers who see no benefit in joining either side of the conflict, are calling for dialogue to settle the conflict. They want to focus on developing their country and feeding its growing population and are not interested in becoming a cog in the machine of a war that has nothing to do with Egypt.

Washington is clearly discontent with Cairo's neutrality in the conflict and has warned Egypt that it could pay a price for its stance.

Pivotal partner

At the same time, Egypt wants to maintain its relationship with the US.

After all, American financial support (around $50bn in military aid and $30bn in economic assistance since 1978) is crucial for the development of the Egyptian economy and the modernisation of the Egyptian army — the world's 14th most powerful.

The US invests heavily in Egypt, with American companies investing close to $24bn in all sectors of the Egyptian economy, including energy; infrastructure; agriculture, and tourism.

The US is also Egypt's second-largest trade partner after China, with $9.1bn in annual trade exchange.

American political, security and economic investments in Egypt also reflect the pivotal importance of the Arab country.

Egypt — which controls and operates the Suez Canal — plays an important role in regional security and stability and is an important partner in the war against terrorism and extremism and a key proponent of religious moderation in the region.

It cooperates with the US at the level of intelligence and is instrumental in putting a lid on regional tensions, including between Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and Israel.

It keeps the peace it signed with Israel in 1979 and helps in putting out fires in regional hotspots like Libya and Lebanon. 

Independent course

In the past two years, Egypt resisted repeated pressures from the US to join the anti-Russia camp. It also reportedly resisted requests by the US administration to provide Ukraine with weapons, including rockets and missiles.

Behind Egypt's rejection of American requests is its deeply-rooted relations with Moscow and its vested interest in maintaining balanced relations with other countries, including those at loggerheads.  

Russia too is important for Cairo. It is an important arms supplier, has sizeable investments in Egypt, and works with Cairo on several regional files.

Russian engineers are now building a nuclear power plant in western Egypt — a facility that costs $30bn to build, $25bn of which comes through an easy-term Russian credit facility.

Russia is also constructing a major industrial zone in the Suez Canal region, an aspired main driver of economic development in Egypt in the decades to come.

Cold War mentality

Egypt seems to have learned its lesson of putting all its eggs in one basket the hard way.

In 2013, the Barak Obama administration withheld military and economic aid to Egypt, including big-ticket items, such as Apache attack helicopters, Harpoon missiles, M1-A1 tank parts and F-16 warplanes, just when the Egyptian army and police were intensely fighting a branch of the Islamic State (IS) in Sinai.

The likely view among decision-makers in Cairo is that the Cold War mentality alive in the heads of some people in Washington is both outdated and unsuitable in the rapidly evolving world.

Apart from diversifying the sources of its arms and food, Egypt is also trying to become part of new international alliances, ones that aim to counterbalance Western hegemonic practices.

Read more: BRICS influence grows as it invites six countries to join

Egypt will join BRICS as of January next year, pinning a lot of hope on the fledgling alliance to open the door for alternatives in a world that is becoming multipolar in practice.

Perhaps some people in Washington are opening their eyes to these new realities and also to the new mind-set formulating policies in Cairo, which is why they might be putting courting as a policy option with Egypt in the stead of the correctional policy pursued by Obama a few years ago in dealing with one of the region's pivots.