Putin and Erdoğan leave Sochi with no big breakthroughs

Erdoğan said that, with some improvements, the Black Sea Grain could be revived soon

AFP

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) shaking hands after a press conference following a meeting in Sochi on 4 September, 2023.

Putin and Erdoğan leave Sochi with no big breakthroughs

Omer Onhon

last update on 05 Sep 2023

Turkey-Russia relations have come once again under the spotlight with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Sochi, where he met President Vladimir Putin on 4 September.

On the bilateral side of relations, according to Erdoğan, trade volume in 2022 stood at around $69bn — an increase from around $34bn last year when the number of Russian tourists who visited Turkey was 5.2 million. The number of tourists for the first seven months of this year stands at 3.5 million.

Using domestic currencies instead of the dollar and euro in trade, 20 billion cubic meters of natural gas currently flow through the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream pipelines. There is a possibility that Russia will build a second nuclear plant — an issue that is at the forefront of bilateral relations between the two countries.

While the two countries share a number of foreign policy priorities, they don’t necessarily see eye to eye on them. However, apart from Ukraine, they work to find common ground whenever possible.

In a joint press conference after the summit, Erdoğan told journalists that he and the Russian president had discussed several regional and global developments, including those pertaining to Ukraine, Syria, the South Caucasus, Libya and Africa.

AFP — Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) giving a press conference following a meeting in Sochi.

Ukraine and the Black Sea Grain Initiative

Turkey has clearly been supportive of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. It has not recognised the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and this time, it has closed the Turkish Straits to Russian ships and provided military support to Ukraine.

At the same time, it has not joined international sanctions and maintained friendly relations with Russia. It has emerged as one of the few countries that can somewhat seamlessly deal with both Ukraine and Russia.

The grain deal that Turkey brokered together with the United Nations may have provided at least a degree of protection against criticisms for not joining sanctions and also claims that Russia is using Turkey to circumvent sanctions.

This is a serious issue which could put Turkey — already facing economic difficulties — in an ever more difficult position. A number of high-level US officials have visited Turkey to make this point.

Turkey seems to be trying to improve its strained relations with the United States and the EU. The UN-Turkey brokered grain deal helped boost Turkey’s standing with the West and Russia’s disengagement with the plan in July gives Turkey another opportunity to demonstrate its utility as a global power broker.

In fact, the global community was hoping that the summit’s main focus would be to revive the grain deal, that many nations around the world are party to.

Diana Estefana Rubio

However, those who were pinning hopes on the Sochi summit to produce concrete progress on the grain deal were left disappointed.

The global community was hoping that the summit's main focus would be to revive the grain deal, that many nations around the world are party to. However, those who were pinning hopes on the Sochi summit to produce concrete progress on the grain deal were left disappointed.

Russia withdrew from the grain deal claiming that even though it kept to its part of the deal, the other side did not. Putin claimed that humanitarian corridors have been used for military purposes and that Russia was unable to export its own agricultural products and fertilisers because of sanctions.

Additionally, Putin is demanding that the Russian Agricultural Bank be reconnected to the Swift international payments system.

Putin has also been critical of the implementation of the deal, claiming most of the Ukrainian grain goes not to poor countries in need but to developed countries. This has been a point that President Erdoğan has also emphasised.

In the press conference, Putin proposed two initiatives — one where Moscow would supply one million tons of Russian grain to Turkey at reduced prices, which would then be processed at Turkish plants and sent to countries that need it most.

The second initiative would supply Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, the Central African Republic and Eritrea with up to 50,000 tons of grain each and free of charge.

While these initiatives were endorsed by Erdoğan, it remains unclear whether they are meant to replace the grain deal or will be treated as separate initiatives.

Regardless, what is clear is that Putin is using "poor nations and African nations in need of grain" as an excuse to push his agenda and secure more benefits for Russia.

AFP — This pool image distributed by the Sputnik agency on September 4, 2023, shows Russian President Vladimir Putin seeing off his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan after their talks in Sochi.

Russia not only withdrew from the grain deal but has carried out attacks on Ukrainian ports, grain silos and depots.

It goes without saying that Kyiv doesn't trust Moscow.

To this end, Kyiv is pushing for alternatives that would avoid Russia as a cooperation partner. It wants to transport its grain via Romania and Bulgaria, through their land and sea territories.

On 19 August, Ukraine and Romania signed a deal to work together to send Ukrainian grain through Romania, through its rivers, railways, roads and sea. On its part, Bucharest has said that more than 60% of Ukraine's grain could be sent to its final destinations through Romania.

Kyiv has also suggested that Nato warships escort ships carrying Ukrainian grain.

Recently, Zelensky has replaced Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov, citing the need for new approaches in the military conflict with Russia. The new Minister, Rustem Umerov, is a Crimean Tatar.

On their part, both Erdoğan and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres are hoping to get the Black Sea grain deal back on track.

At the Sochi press conference, Erdoğan said that the Black Sea Grain Initiative should be reinstated with some "improvements". He called on Ukraine's support in this effort and sounded upbeat that the deal could be revived soon.

On his part, Guterres informed the press a few days ago that he had sent a letter to Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov which included a set of concrete proposals addressing Moscow's concerns.

Turkey and the UN may be willing to address at least some of Russia's concerns, but the West seems unwilling to appease Putin and is not keen to 'reward' Putin for using grain as a weapon of war and bargaining chip.

An inspector surveys the damage at a grain port facility after a reported attack by Russian military drones in, Izmail, Odesa region, Ukraine August 2, 2023

At the Sochi press conference, Erdoğan said that the Black Sea Grain Initiative should be reinstated with some "improvements". He called on Ukraine's support in this effort and sounded upbeat that the deal could be revived soon.

Syria

Syria was another hot topic on the agenda of the two presidents. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has stated that he doesn't see a need to meet Erdoğan unless Turkish troops withdraw from northern Syria.

On his part, Putin has been unable to convince al-Assad to meet with the Turkish president, which some view as a Russian "trick".

In the meantime, Syria, which has been recently swept by a wave of unrest, is an active volcano at risk of erupting at any time.

Anti-government protests which started in the Druze stronghold of Swedia have now spread to a number of cities and towns under al-Assad control. At the same time, Kurdish YPG and Arab tribes in Deir ez Zor — as well as YPG and Turkish-backed opposition groups in northern Syria — are clashing.

People stage a protest as they wave the Druze flags in the southern city of Sweida, Syria on August 27, 2023. Anti-government protests have rocked south Syria for the past week.

Diplomatic flurry

On his part, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has been very busy, flying between Ankara and Moscow. He was in Ukraine and Russia, a few days apart, in the last week of August and the beginning of September. Also, on 3 September, he was in Iran, where he met his counterpart Abdullahian and was received by President Raisi.

These visits were seen as paving the ground for discussion on important issues — particularly related to Ukraine and Syria — ahead of the two presidents' meeting in Sochi.

Relations between Erdoğan and Putin have been categorised as "close and warm". Putin's gesture to defer Turkey's payments for Russian gas helped Erdoğan's election effort back in May and has helped to strengthen relations between the two countries.

On his part, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has been very busy, flying between Ankara and Moscow, as well as Ukraine and Iran. These visits were seen as paving the ground for discussion on important issues — particularly related to Ukraine and Syria — ahead of the two presidents' meeting in Sochi.

Diplomatic snags

However, there have been some hiccups along the way — particularly in recent months.

Up until recently, Turkey's Nato allies were unhappy with Turkey getting too friendly with Russia. But now, it is Russia who seems to be unhappy that Turkey is warming relations with Nato allies and EU "partners".

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was in Turkey for an official visit in July and, on his way back, he took with him five Mariupol commanders. The commanders were released in a prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, on the condition that they remain in Turkey until the war is over.

Russia expressed its dissatisfaction through official statements.

Then, in mid-august, a Russian warship fired warning shots and Russian soldiers boarded a Turkish ship (carrying the Palau flag) for inspection, which was widely interpreted as a retaliatory act.

The last time the two leaders met face to face was in October 2022 in Astana for the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA). Since then, they have spoken a couple of times on the phone.

While the Sochi Summit, at least for the time being, did not produce concrete results — neither on the grain deal nor the Syrian issue — an agreement can still happen.

However, more work needs to be done to agree on a way forward.

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