A new scramble for Africa is underway and Russia is vying for influence

The conditions and instruments employed by outside powers may be different, but the objectives are largely the same: to take advantage of Africa's vast potential. This time around, however, it will be a different game. African countries have evolved in a way that should have put them in a better position to secure their national and collective interests.

And the key players have changed.  

The first scramble involved European nations; the second involves a multitude of world powers. In addition to the traditional European countries, who still have major interests on the continent, today there is also China, the US, Japan and Russia, which all now have important influence there.

To a much lesser extent, there are also active countries including Brazil, Turkey, Saudi Arabi, the United Arab Emirates. Even Iran is showing mounting interest.

With the exception of France and the UK, Russia's experience in Africa is much longer and both more intensive and extensive compared to its main competitors. The Soviet Union showed considerable interest in Africa from the 1950s, supporting the process of decolonisation, until 1991 when the cold war ended with the Soviet Union's collapse.

After the 1960s, which became known as the Decade of Independence, Africa went through a period of  political and social instability and weak economic growth. Its fortunes began to turn around in the year 2000. This coincided with the resurgence Russia's economy from the oil, gas and commodity boom.

Turning point

The turning point for Russia's interest on the continent came in 2006, with the first visit to Africa from President Vladimir Putin. Since then relations between Russia and African states have grown considerably, culminating in the first Russia-Africa summit held in Sochi in 2019.

The first summit took place in promising conditions for Russia. Its economy was booming and it had accumulated considerable resources, leaving it positioned it to reclaim the stature once held by the Soviet Union.

Russia set out to reclaim its role as a major player on both the world stage and in Africa. As well as the ample resources at its disposal, it had balanced relations with the majority of nations there, some of which were antagonistic to each other. While Moscow's annexation of Crimea left it clashing with the West, it had a political model that looked appealing to much of the Global South, where countries were ready to emulate it.

This Russian allure was also boosted by its military performance in Syria.

Headwinds

Since then, however, Russia has faced headwinds. In 2020, there was the Covid-19 pandemic, which disrupted the aspirations and plans of the first summit. Then came the 2022 crisis in Ukraine.

The majority of African countries have refrained from taking positions on Ukraine that are hostile to Russia – including at the United Nations – but an element of uncertainty was introduced by the war to their relations with Moscow.

African countries suffered disproportionately from the rising price in grain as the result of the invasion. It also called into question Moscow's respect for the sanctity of international boundaries, a fundamental principle for African countries enshrined in the charter of the Organisation of African Unity, the predecessor of the African Union.

It meant the second Africa-Russia summit, originally scheduled for 2022, was postponed to July 2023. It also took place in less favourable circumstances for Russia.

It was held amid mounting rivalry between Russia and China on the one side and the West on the other. This made African states uncomfortable. Russia's main competitors also had a head start. China, the European Union, Turkey and the United States all held their respective summits with Africa between 2021 and 2022.

A new urgency

But by the time Russia was meeting African nations, there was an air of additional importance and urgencyto the talks.

Moscow was under even more severe sanctions from the West compared with 2014 and needed to offset its losses. That is clearly reflected in the recently released Russian Foreign Policy Concept. In it, Africa has an important role in the quest of shaping a new multipolar international order.

In particular, Africa's mineral wealth and energy demands provide a strategically important arena for Russia to circumvent Western sanctions. Moscow can secure revenue from emergy exports there while also shoring up supplies of precious metals and rare earths.

The second summit

The second Russia-Africa summit was held in these diplomatic and geopolitical conditions. It was no surprise that the number of nations attending dropped – to 48 from 54 – as did the number of heads or vice-heads of state attending – to 27 from 47.  

Russia emphasised what it considered to be common positions with Africa: the quest for a multipolar international system, security cooperation and combatting terrorism, economic independence from the West and family values.

African leaders emphasised food security,thetransfer of technology, investments and market access for their exports.

The summit declaration reflected common goals: a fairer multipolar architecture for the world order, including the restructuring of the global financial architecture, compensation for African states for the damage caused by colonialism and the return of the cultural treasures removed by colonisers, countering neo-colonial policies that aim to undermine the sovereignty of states, strengthening trade, economic, investment cooperation and technology transfer, ensuring food and energy security on the African continent, and cooperation on a just energy transition.

Space, security and terrorism

In addition to the Action Plan of the Russia-Africa Partnership, which will implement the decisions of the summit, another three declarations were adopted: one on prevention of arms race in space, one on cooperation in informational security and one on strengthening of cooperation in combating terrorism, establishing a new permanent Russian-African security mechanism.

Moreover, a Russia-Africa parliamentary forum will be held annually. During the summit, it was announced that Russia would allocate more than $90mn for lowering the debt burden of African countries, with their indebtedness written off by Moscow totalling $23bn, thereby settling 90% of African debt owed to Moscow.

The Russia-Africa summits, together with those of the summits organised by China, the US and the EU, have put Africa at the centre of competition for influence from great powers.

Foreign players attach increasing expectations to their relations with Africa and the continent's countries have ambitious aspirations for the benefits they seek. The interaction between these expectations and aspirations may well determine the future of Africa.

Arms supplier

Russia's contribution to military and counter-terrorism support is strong. It was Africa's largest arms supplier between 2017 to 2021 covering 44% of all arms imports to the continent. Its relations over energy, including nuclear, and mining operations are also significant. But overall, Russia's footprint in Africa remains marginal when compared to its main competitors.

That means Russia may not be in a position to meet all the expectations of African countries, particularly when it comes to investments, financial and development assistance. To make up for that, Russia is seeking to bolster its efforts by bringing the Eurasian Economic Union and the rest of the Brics nations – Brazil, Russia India, China, and South Africa – into the picture.

For African countries, Russia is an appealing partner given its wealth of technical expertise, its non-conditional approach to cooperation, and its global position as a counterweight to the West.

The latter factor may gain greater attention over the coming years. There is a feeling that the West is showing double standards and a lack of urgency over Africa's energy needs, and its green energy transition, making the issue increasingly politicised.

Military-led regimes, the number of which could be on the rise – are also chafing under the impact of the West's sanctions. A focus on security issues and combatting terrorism is also well aligned with Russia as it seeks to deepen its interests in Africa.

Africa's collective gross domestic production gives the continent's economy a value of $3 trillion. There are promising prospects for further substantial growth. Africa possesses sizeable oil and gas reserves and is home to around 30% of the world's critical mineral resources that power our modern world. Its abundant arable land is under-used and has enormous potential for global food supply.

It will be key in supplying the minerals that drive the modern global economy, including lithium, cobalt and nickel.

Africa's role in managing climate change cannot be understated. It is home to 30% of the world's rainforests.

A future labour force powerhouse

By the turn of the century, Africa will be home to 40% of the world's population. Critically, Over the next three decades, the youth population will increase by over 500 million. As a result, 42% of the global working-age population will be in Africa.

This large labour force, if equipped with the necessary skills for the jobs of the 21st century and beyond, will be a boon not only to the region but to the global economy. But this also depends on how the world's major economies – in the West as well as the East – are able to establish the kind of relationships with Africa that allows it to fulfil its potential.

If the necessary investments are made, Africa can make a critical contribution to addressing these challenges. Conversely, if its vulnerabilities are not adequately addressed, it will pose mounting challenges for the world.

Africa will be crucial in dealing with the transnational threats that the world faces, from environmental degradation and pandemics to energy and food security and the fight against terrorism, food security.

Three main challenges but no strings attached

While Russia and Africa share some common goals and have a fair amount of shared interests, there are three main challenges for both sides will need to overcome in order to derive benefits from a strengthened relationship.

First, there is a need to raise the awareness, particularly in the business communities, both in Russia and Africa about the benefits of cooperation.

Second, there is a need to manage African expectations when it comes to the prospects of trade and Russian investments.

Third, arrangements need to be found to deal with the strict sanctions regime imposed by the West. African countries will need to find a way to strengthen their relations with Russia without jeopardising their continued dependency on the West, particularly the EU.

The one advantage Russia possesses – together with China –  in Africa, is that cooperation comes without political conditions, or on a no-strings-attached basis.

The scramble for Africa will continue, and possibly intensify, in the coming decades. The challenge for Africa will be how it will turn this competition to its advantage.