Putin plays hunger games in targeting Ukraine grain silos

Grain prices spike

Unsurprisingly, grain prices have spiked since the Russian pullout.

This is despite the fact that the Russian withdrawal from the Black Sea deal wasn't a surprise. Russia had been threatening to leave the agreement for months. Even when the deal was in place, Moscow acted to decrease the flow of grain going through the Black Sea, by delaying inspections. 

Indeed, a key part of the deal was the carrying out of joint inspections of shipments transiting through the Black Sea by the Istanbul-based Joint Coordination Centre (JCC). Since the end of last year, Russian inspectors had effectively worked to create bottlenecks, by limiting the number of inspections they carried out or failing to show up.

As a result of these lingering tensions, Ukraine worked on a "Plan B" — an alternative to the deal. Kyiv has worked to set up a fund meant to insure ships against damage received while sailing through the Black Sea while investing in other export routes.

This includes land routes, as well as what's been dubbed the "Solidarity Lanes" — namely a set of river routes that have increasingly been used to ship food products.

The Russian effort to "bottleneck" the Grain Corridor has led to some investment into Ukraine's large river network, and the pace of export through these "Solidarity Lanes" is picking up.

Clear and present danger

But make no mistake: Although the impact may not be as direct as the one seen during the first phase of the war, the danger is real. Moscow isn't just sitting by the sideline, but rather actively going after Ukraine's food production and export capabilities.

After exiting the deal, the Russian Defence Ministry issued a statement implying that ships sailing from or to Ukraine would be deemed military targets, on suspicion that they were carrying military cargo.

On cue, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) also claimed to have found "traces of explosives" after inspecting a ship that had stopped at one of Ukraine's ports.

The likelihood that Ukraine would use sea routes to import weapons, rather than much safer land routes is low, but the message Russia is trying to send is clear: Moscow is prepared to attack or seize ships which would dare to break its de facto blockade.

Though some ships may try to risk it, no amount of insurance will restore maritime traffic in the Black Sea to what it was before the invasion.

Beyond that, Russia also carried out a series of attacks against both grain terminals and grain production facilities.

The attack against the river port of Izmail was not the first. Days before, Russia also attacked Reni, another river port situated mere hundreds of meters from the border with Romania. By doing so, Russia took the risk that one of the drones it used would fall within Nato's borders.

This gives us a measure of how serious President Putin is, in waiving food (or more accurately hunger) as a weapon.

Scope for retaliation

What's more, Ukraine may well retaliate. There is no reason to think that Kyiv will stand by the side and watch Russia ruin its agricultural sector while reaping the political and economic benefits of sidelining one of its key rivals.

In fact, Kyiv may already have started to retaliate, as several explosions were heard in key Russian ports along the Black Sea. Though it lacks a proper navy, the Ukrainian military has used explosive-laden drones, as well as a set of projectiles to great effect.

The collapse of the deal also piles upon the long-term consequences of the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam earlier this year. The destruction of the dam has led to what Ukraine called an "ecocide", unleashing torrents of water downstream, while effectively wiping out a key water reservoir.

This reservoir was used, among others, for agricultural purposes, as it fed several canals used mostly for irrigation purposes across southern Ukraine.

Urgent need to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative

These combined effects give a sense of urgency to efforts to renew the deal. The bulk of Ukraine's crops tend to be harvested during the summer, thus representing another deadline. A not-insignificant amount of crops situated along the extensive frontline in eastern and southern Ukraine, are also poised not to be harvested and will rot.

This sense of urgency is exactly what Moscow is counting on.

In return for an extension to the agreement, Russia has made extensive demands.

Those include steps to facilitate the export of Russian grain and fertilisers, sanction-exemptions for spare parts for agricultural machinery, as well as the reconnection of some of Russia's banks (particularly the Russian agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank) to SWIFT — a global financial system that allows international payment.

Notably, Rosselkhozbank is headed by Dmitry Patrushev, Russia's Agriculture Minister and the son of Nikolai Patrushev, the head of Russia's Security Council who is believed to have significant influence in the Kremlin.

While these demands may sound reasonable, and while the US has made some exceptions to allow the payment of some specific transactions, this would represent an unprecedented breach in the global effort to impose a cost on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

What Putin wants is a signal that doing business with Russia is becoming less of a risk. Indeed, despite exemptions set up to allow food exports, Western companies have shied away from importing Russian food products. Yet at the same time — and according to Russia's own data — exports of food products have increased in 2022.

Courting countries for grain export

Moscow may also be hoping to use this window of opportunity to also secure new deals with countries that have found themselves in search of alternatives to Ukrainian grains.

It may not be a coincidence that, just two weeks after Russia refused to extend the Black Sea deal, Russia held an "Africa Summit" in St. Petersburg.

During the summit, which was attended by nearly 50 of the continent's leaders, the Russian President offered to help ease the food crisis (a crisis largely of its own making) by exporting free grain to six African countries.

President Putin said Russia can "replace Ukrainian grain, both on a commercial basis and as giant aid to the neediest African countries".

Some of the leaders present in St. Petersburg, however, appeared unconvinced. The South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa, did not appear pleased by Russia's offer, indicating that he largely preferred a return to the deal and that he "did not come here to ask for some 'gifts' for the African continent".

This message was notable because it was public and came from a leader who has largely sought to maintain a neutral stance regarding Ukraine.

Turkey and China: Key players to watch

Other countries may express it more quietly. This includes Turkey, which has been a key mediator of the deal.

Ankara could be negatively impacted by the food crisis, which would pile up on the already skyrocketing inflation. President Erdogan also does have significant leverage over Russia that others do not.

This is due to the growing economic ties between the two countries, and a successful play by the Turkish Erdogan to position himself as a (quietly despised but publicly courted) decision-maker — as seen with the crisis surrounding Sweden's Nato's entry.

This has led to hopes that a meeting between Erdogan and Putin this month could see the deal be renewed, with President Putin once again offering the Turkish president a non-negligible boost in standing.

China is another key player to watch.

Although Beijing is unlikely to express any sort of criticism towards Russia, a spike in food prices would affect it in the long run. Beijing was also one of the top importers of Ukrainian grains through the Black Sea Grain deal.

This means that Russia does face pressure of its own. But in the meantime, Russia will continue to "play" this dangerous game of hunger.