Politics

World leaders race to get Black Sea grain deal back on track

Ukraine has floated the idea of shipping its grain under Nato protection grain without a deal with Russia. This is considered reckless by many but has some supporters.

AFP

The poorest countries in the world, particularly in Africa, are largely dependent on Russian and Ukrainian grain. They stand to lose the most if a deal is not reached soon.

World leaders race to get Black Sea grain deal back on track

Omer Onhon

last update on 07 Aug 2023

The war between Russia and Ukraine — the world's largest grain-producing countries — continues to have a serious impact on global food security. Food security and grain deals have become instruments of war. Grain prices have arisen globally and poor countries are affected most.

As a result of mediation by the United Nations and Turkey, on 22 July 2021, two agreements were signed in Istanbul — one about the export of Ukrainian grain and the other about the lifting of sanctions on Russian grain and fertiliser.

These agreements — up to date —enabled the delivery of around 33 million tonnes of grain to the world markets.

On 17 July this year, Russia announced that it would be halting its participation in the grain deal, complaining that the deal was not being implemented in good faith and in the mutual benefit of the parties, citing high insurance and shipment prices that drive down profits.

Russia has put forward a list of demands for a new deal. The list includes measures to facilitate the export of Russian grain and fertilisers as well as sanction exemptions for spare parts for agricultural machinery.

Most importantly, Russia has demanded that its Agricultural Bank be included in the Swift system — a global financial system used for international payments.

Russians have been bombing Ukrainian ports which are used to store, load and ship grain.

US Sanctions Coordinator Ambassador James O'Brien said that, after withdrawing from the grain deal, Russia is not only blocking ports to prevent Ukrainian ships from leaving but also destroying much-needed grain by bombing depots in the ports.

An inspector surveys the damage at a grain port facility after a reported attack by Russian military drones in, Izmail, Odesa region, Ukraine August 2, 2023

O'Brien claimed that as a result of its bombing campaign, as of 3 August, Russia had destroyed 220,000 tonnes of grain.

One of the central arguments used by Russia and other parties for withdrawing from the grain deal is that the grain is not being delivered to the poorest countries as it was supposed to.

While Russia's claim should not be taken at face value, the World Food Programme has reported that 46% of the grain exported under the deal went to Asia, 40% to Western Europe, 12% to Africa and 1% to Eastern Europe.

However, the UN has stated that the grain deal has helped the poorest countries by reducing food prices by at least 20% globally.

Russia claims the grain is not being delivered to the poorest countries as it was supposed to under the deal. However, the UN says the deal has helped reduce food prices by 20% globally.

Africa severely impacted by the war

The impact of the Ukraine war has been felt severely in Africa. According to the African Development Bank, in 2020, 15 African countries imported over 50% of their wheat products from Russia or Ukraine.

The Russia-Africa Summit in St Petersburg provided the perfect propaganda opportunity for Russia. President Putin promised to start shipping, in the next few months, 25,000-50,000 tons of grain for free to six African nations: Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Eritrea, Mali, Somalia and Zimbabwe.

AFP — Russian President Vladimir Putin, African leaders and heads of delegations attend a plenary meeting at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg on July 28, 2023.

The impact of the war pushed African countries to form a delegation, consisting of the leaders of South Africa, Senegal, Zambia, Comoros, Egypt, Uganda and the Republic of Congo, to try to negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine. Their meetings with Putin and Zelensky continue.

The impact of the Ukraine war has been felt severely in Africa. According to the African Development Bank, In 2020, 15 African countries imported over 50% of their wheat from Russia or Ukraine.

Erdoğan-Putin meeting

On his part, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is trying to get the grain agreement back on track. A few days back he said that he intended to meet Putin later this month, although there is no certainty as to where and when the meeting will take place. Statements from both sides about the meeting do not match.

Putting Turkey and Russia on the same side on the issue of the grain corridor, Erdoğan said the grain coming from Russia through the Black Sea corridor will be turned into flour in Turkey and then transported to poor African and underdeveloped countries.

The grain deal is a matter of prestige for Erdoğan. To a certain extent, he has managed quite well, owing also to his so-called special relationship with Putin, although tensions have recently surfaced between the two leaders.

Russian and Turkish officials, as well as the United Nations and other relevant parties, are engaged in a diplomatic push to restart the shipment of grain. If there is to be an agreement, it would likely be a new one rather than the activation of the previous deal.

However, if, and when, Erdoğan and Putin meet, the grain deal will not be the only issue on the agenda. Syria, Nato expansion, bilateral economic relations and others will also be discussed. All these have somewhat become interrelated which makes things more complicated.

Ukraine floats idea to ship grain under Nato protection

Ukraine has floated the idea of shipping its grain without a deal with Russia. It believes if the grain is shipped under Nato's protection, Russia wouldn't dare to interfere.

This approach is considered reckless by many but is not without its supporters. For instance, Retired Admiral James Stavridis, the former Nato Supreme Allied Commander, suggested that US warships could protect ships carrying grain through the Black Sea.

The war is destructive enough as it is. Ukraine, with fresh recruits and all sorts of Western weapons and equipment, is in the midst of a counter-offensive against Russia.

AFP — This photograph taken on July 8, 2022 shows in the foreground wheat crops with holes left by airstrikes and in the background smoke billowing after shelling on the outskirts of the city of Siversk, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian drones have been targeting buildings in Moscow, about 1,000 kilometres away from the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, Russia has been targeting civilians and grain depots, placing land mines in them.

Ukraine has floated the idea of shipping its grain under Nato protection grain without a deal with Russia. This is considered reckless by many but has some supporters.

Land route possible, but not preferable

The Black Sea is not the only route for shipments. There is an alternative whereby grain could be transported to neighbouring countries and onto international markets, by road, river and rail links.

These are the so-called "solidarity lanes" of the European Union, established after Russia's invasion, to make it possible to send grain from Ukraine and Moldova to EU ports and onwards to overseas markets.

The problem here is that existing routes do not have the capacity to carry as much grain as could be transported by way of the Black Sea. Expanding the network and building the needed capacity would require extensive effort that could take several years to complete. Thus, despite the usefulness of alternative routes, the Black Sea route and the revival of the grain deal is the most feasible option.

Getty — Dry bulk cargo vessels, including ships carrying grain, at the southern entrance to the Bosporus Strait leading to the Black Sea in Istanbul, Turkey, on Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022.

A few days ago, after the Africa Summit in St Petersburg, Putin said that he has not ruled out the idea of peace talks. But, he said, there could be no ceasefire as long as the Ukrainian army carries on with its offensive.

On its part, Ukraine says peace talks can only be possible when Russia returns captured Ukrainian territories. However, Russia has no intention of giving back Ukrainian territories under its control, except maybe some territory to let go in negotiations. It believes Ukraine should accept the new territorial realities.

The defence line which Russia built along the eastern part of Ukraine it has invaded, sends a clear message on its plans for the future.

Under these circumstances, it will be extremely challenging to find a reasonable middle-ground approach to bring the war to an end.

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