Iran

Amid a regional war, a fight at home between the clerics and military looms

The president's sudden death in a helicopter crash creates uncertainty for the country amid regional turmoil

Khamenei continues to carry out Khomeini's vision, which is not only bent on the destruction of Israel but aspires to be the dominant regional power. To this end, Iran exercises 'strategic patience'.

Intended as a means of avoiding future deadly conflagrations, nations' refusal to impose sanctions and targeted countries' ability to circumvent them made them ineffective in many cases

Much is made of links between Beijing and Tehran, but the true extent of their relations is more limited. Where there are alternatives, China takes them, with one eye on the US.

Against the backdrop of geopolitical realignments, the burgeoning partnership between Iran and Pakistan can potentially recalibrate the balance of power in South Asia and beyond.

It remains to be seen if, going forward, Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Syria or Lebanon—or against the PMF in Iraq—will elicit a direct Iranian response. Time will tell.

The two sides are making careful calculations—at least for now—but the conflict is changing, as are the political dynamics at work in dangerous times

The US and French withdrawal from the Sahel lets the Russians, Chinese, and Iranians in. Tehran, in particular, will be keen to buy Niger's uranium, despite this being a red line for Washington.

The two countries have a long history of online offensives against each other, which may come into play