When the Houthis began striking ships in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait in 2023, it looked to be just another episode of Yemen's war spilling into the seas. But three years later, it can now be seen in a new light: the testing of a model to control a key chokepoint of global trade. Now that the rebel group has captured much of Yemen's western coast, observers wonder about its implications for East Africa, which sits just on the opposite side of the Red Sea. While it may be too early to draw definitive conclusions, the group's ability to obstruct the waterway (without a state army or navy) has shown the world how easy it is to do so.
To be fair, the Houthis never acted alone. Tehran backed them from the outset, supplying the weapons and technology that turned an insurgent movement into a force capable of threatening global logistics. Since 2023, the Houthis have shot down at least 15 American MQ-9 Reaper drones, according to American military sources cited by the Associated Press; in six weeks alone in the spring of 2025, they inflicted $200mn in US military losses.
Of course, cheap technology alone cannot explain their reach. The group is highly motivated and has a clear goal and programme for achieving it. Therefore, even if it faces far stronger opponents, the group retains the ability to drive up costs for their adversaries, making a sustained military campaign against them unsustainable in the long run.
