Why the battle for Bab al-Mandab is so important

The Yemeni army has so far succeeded in thwarting a Houthi advance toward the strategically vital western coast, but should the group succeed, it would give Iran a huge boost

Yemeni fishermen pass alongside a commercial vessel in the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, Yemen, on 5 April 2026.
AP
Yemeni fishermen pass alongside a commercial vessel in the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, Yemen, on 5 April 2026.

Why the battle for Bab al-Mandab is so important

Yemen’s Houthi movement has stepped up efforts to gain full control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which would allow it to restrict maritime shipping in the Red Sea. Controlling these waters would give Tehran more leverage against the US, which is waging a multi-front war against it.

To this end, the Iran-backed group’s strategy appears to be baiting Saudi Arabia into a military confrontation by challenging longstanding United Nations Security Council resolutions that impose restrictions on the group. Those resolutions authorised Saudi Arabia to lead an Arab coalition in support of Yemen’s internationally recognised government after the Houthis seized control of the capital Sanaa on 21 September 2014 and placed the country's then-president, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, under house arrest.

For a decade, the Houthis enjoyed a tactical military edge, with a near-monopoly over asymmetric aerial warfare. They could monitor their adversaries and strike troop concentrations and command centres far from the front lines, while government forces functioned mainly defensively.

While the size of the Houthi arsenal has never been disclosed, its operational record shows its potency. For over a decade, they have carried out more than 1,000 drone operations, killing more than 700 people. In terms of range and type, the Houthis operate strategic one-way attack drones, including the Samad-3, with a range of roughly 1,500 kilometres and an 18-kilogramme payload, as well as the Qasef family, whose payloads can reach 30 kilogrammes.

In the past three years, the group has taken advantage of the relative calm in the Yemeni conflict to restock its military arsenal and improve its communication networks in preparation for this exact scenario. These weapons and technologies were presumably smuggled either across the desert or through the Red Sea, reportedly from Somalia’s Al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab movement, despite the sectarian differences between the two groups.

The introduction of competitive weaponry could finally enable the army to go on the offensive, complicating Houthi efforts to fully capture Bab al-Mandab

Offensive thwarted

In the past weeks, the Houthis attacked the provinces of Marib and Hadramawt with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones.  Next, they recruited large numbers of young men—particularly from impoverished tribal and rural areas—to launch a ferocious offensive to open a direct path to the southern Red Sea. They were sent into deadly battles in the governorates of Taiz and Hodeidah, where many were killed, wounded or captured, according to numerous videos released by the Yemeni army and images circulated by activists on social media.

For its part, Saudi Arabia appears to have been wise to the strategy and has so far avoided responding aggressively to Houthi provocations. So far, its actions have been more defensive: it formed a regional naval coalition to protect freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and sealed a defence alliance with Türkiye and Pakistan, showing it also has powerful military allies.

Diana Estefanía Rubio

Additionally, Riyadh has doubled down on its support for the Yemeni government and is helping arm its military forces. F-16 aircraft have been spotted fighting on several fronts in Marib, Al-Jawf and Al-Dhale, and the Yemeni army has also been equipped with advanced drones. The introduction of competitive weaponry could finally enable government forces to go on the offensive, complicating Houthi efforts to fully capture Bab al-Mandab.

For now, many analysts have voiced cautious optimism but concede that the strategic balance remains unchanged. However, analysts admit that the gap in strategic range and industrial depth remains substantial. The Houthis still have the advantage in the range and industrial depth of their arsenal. And while regional support to stop the Houthi advance seems to be working for now, the broader effect will depend on whether the Yemeni army can sustain the current momentum. Should they fail and Yemen's western coast fully fall into Houthi hands, it would tip the strategic balance in Iran's favour.

font change

Related Articles