Blinken makes final attempt at Gaza truce on last regional visithttps://en.majalla.com/node/322734/politics/blinken-makes-final-attempt-gaza-truce-last-regional-visit
Blinken makes final attempt at Gaza truce on last regional visit
On the 11th visit to the region in a year since the Gaza war began, the outgoing US Secretary of State gives his last push for a ceasefire that Netanyahu was perhaps never really interested in
Nathan Howard / AFP
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken disembarks from his plane upon arrival at the Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv on October 22, 2024.
Blinken makes final attempt at Gaza truce on last regional visit
The latest diplomatic shuttle mission by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken—which is likely to be his last before next month’s US presidential election—is ostensibly aimed at breathing new life into ceasefire negotiations aimed at ending the violence in Gaza. The Biden administration, together with leaders across the globe, has raised hopes that last week’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by Israeli forces following a shoot-out in Gaza could pave the way for renewed talks on brokering a ceasefire.
Both US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris responded to Sinwar’s demise by claiming it revived the prospects of peace. Biden said he intended to discuss “ending the war once and for all” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while Harris declared the Hamas leader’s death "gives us an opportunity to finally end the war”.
In what will be Blinken's 11th diplomatic shuttle mission to the Middle East since Israel's war in Gaza a year ago, the US envoy is clearly hoping that there is an opportunity to end hostilities before the 5 November election.
Such a move would undoubtedly provide a campaign boost to Democratic candidate Harris after the Biden administration has struggled to make any headway in previous efforts to implement a ceasefire. Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing the war on Gaza has frustrated previous efforts to end the violence.
Following talks with Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant in Jerusalem, Blinken is planning to meet with several other regional leaders in a last-ditch bid to reach a deal.
A ceasefire deal would provide a campaign boost to Harris after the Biden administration has so far failed to clinch one
John Kirby, spokesman for the US National Security Council, told reporters on Monday that, apart from pursuing a ceasefire in Gaza, Blinken was seeking agreement on a "day-after" plan for future governance of the Palestinian territory. Although Blinken has been "working on day-after options for months", the administration is still trying to formulate a final plan for Gaza—"how it would be comprised, where it would be deployed, who would run it," Kirby explained.
Israeli officials have even given positive indications that they might be open to a comprehensive deal that would calm the front in southern Lebanon, release hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and allow more aid into the Palestinian territory.
The Israelis have come under pressure to allow the transfer of more aid to Gaza after the Biden administration earlier this month threatened to halt arms shipments to Israel if it continues to block aid from getting through.
Hopes that Israel might be prepared to accept a deal, though, need to be seen within the context of Netanyahu's uncompromising response to Sinwar's death when, in a televised address to the Israeli people, he insisted Israel's military offensives would continue.
"The war, my dear ones, is not yet over," Netanyahu said in his address. He insisted that the fighting would continue until all the hostages held by Hamas had been released. And, referring to the wider terrorist network Iran has established to confront Israel involving Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Yemen's Houthi rebels, Netanyahu reminded Israelis, "We have before us a great opportunity to stop the axis of evil and create a different future."
Under such circumstances, Blinken will have his work cut out to arrange a ceasefire in time for the US presidential election, even if the Biden administration is investing enormous political capital in ending hostilities.
Apart from Blinken's visit, Amos Hochstein, the administration's main envoy for Israel-Hezbollah affairs, has visited Beirut, where he met with Lebanon's parliamentary speaker, Nabih Berri—a key interlocutor between the West and Hezbollah. "We are either going to reach a solution, or things are going to escalate out of control," Hockstein told reporters.
His visit came as Israel escalated its bombing campaign in Lebanon over the weekend, targeting Al Qard Al Hassan Association—a bank-like institution it says helps fund Hezbollah's military operations. Founded in 1983, Al Qard Al Hassan is officially a charity yet functions as a quasi-bank, lending to supporters of Hezbollah—a Shiite group that is also a political party.
In response, Hezbollah was reported to have fired a salvo of rockets at the base of Israel's secretive 8200 military intelligence unit in the Glilot suburb of Tel Aviv. A secretive cyber warfare unit, it has been described as the "foremost technical intelligence agency in the world" and has been linked to Israel's exploding pager attacks against Hezbollah in September.
Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, October 1, 2024
Looming Iran strike
Another consideration that will be weighing heavily on Blinken's mind is Israel's threat to hit back at Iran following its 1 October missile salvo in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil and Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. The Israelis have hinted strongly that they intend to launch their attack against Iran prior to the 5 November US presidential poll.
Israel's security cabinet was reported to have discussed its attack plans at the weekend, although the government made no announcement of what action it might take. The meeting ended with a statement that spoke only of a prospective deal to free hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.
With the Israeli military continuing to maintain its operations in both Gaza and Lebanon, the prospect of Israel opening a new front against Iran has the potential to provoke a far wider escalation of hostilities in the region. Such a development would certainly make Blinken's hopes of easing tensions in the region ahead of the elections much more difficult, if not completely impossible.
