Biden's inability to restrain Israel bodes badly for the region

Although Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attacks, Hezbollah and its supporters are under no illusions that Israel is ultimately responsible for initiating the carnage, with Hezbollah officials insisting that Israel would receive "its fair punishment" for causing the bloodshed.

Suspicions that Israel is deliberately seeking to disrupt Hezbollah's communications systems have strengthened, moreover, after Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warned that the Israeli army was shifting its military focus to the north towards the Lebanese border for a "new phase" of the 11-month war that has raged since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year.

"The centre of gravity is shifting to the north by diverting resources and forces (there)," Gallant said. "We are at the onset of a new phase in the war. It requires courage, determination and perseverance from us."

Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in cross-border skirmishes since the Iranian-backed militia launched attacks against northern Israel in support of Hamas fighters in Gaza. An estimated 60,000 Israelis are reported to have fled their homes in northern Israel, prompting Netanyahu to warn earlier this week that there needed to be a "change in the balance of forces on our northern border".

Precursor to wider war?

With the Israeli army reported to have deployed two army divisions to northern Israel, the possibility that the attacks on Hezbollah's pagers and walkie-talkies are simply the precursor to a major Israeli military operation against the militia is certainly being taken seriously in Washington, where the Biden administration is reported to have warned Netanyahu against provoking a new war in Lebanon.

But the Biden administration's ability to prevent a full-scale conflict erupting between Israel and Hezbollah is open to question, particularly as US officials say they had no prior knowledge that this week's sophisticated attack on Hezbollah's communications network was about to take place.

Blinken, who was on a state visit to Egypt when the attacks happened, told a press conference that "the United States did not know about, nor was it involved in, these incidents. We're still gathering the information, gathering the facts." US defence officials, meanwhile, insisted that "we were not aware of this operation and were not involved."

Dwindling influence

The fact that the Biden administration—which continues to view Israel as one of its closest military allies—had no prior knowledge of the attack is certainly concerning, as it demonstrates how little influence Washington is able to exert over its Israeli ally, even though the US military is deeply invested in protecting it from attacks by hostile states such as Iran.

The attacks on Hezbollah's communications network, moreover, come against the backdrop of increased Israeli military activity in the region. In recent weeks, the Israelis have been accused of killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, a senior Hamas commander in Beirut, and destroying an Iranian missile production facility in Syria—to name just a few.

In such circumstances, the Biden administration needs to be able to exert maximum pressure on Israel to show restraint if it is to succeed in its goal of preventing the Gaza conflict from escalating into a major Middle East conflict.

But if the Israelis are not even prepared to give Washington prior notice when they are about to embark on a major military operation, such as disabling Hezbollah's communication systems, then the chances of Biden being able to prevent Israel from launching a major military offensive in southern Lebanon are remote indeed.