Iran missile salvo: Has Israel bitten off more than it can chew?https://en.majalla.com/node/322457/politics/iran-missile-salvo-has-israel-bitten-more-it-can-chew
Iran missile salvo: Has Israel bitten off more than it can chew?
Just after Israel invaded Lebanon, Hezbollah fired missiles at the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv. Hours later, Iran followed with over 200 missiles. Now, the region waits for Israel's next move.
REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, October 1, 2024
Iran missile salvo: Has Israel bitten off more than it can chew?
After the initial success Israel has enjoyed targeting the leadership of Hezbollah, the Israeli military is likely to face a far more daunting challenge following its decision to launch a ground offensive in Lebanon.
Case in point, on the very same day Israel announced its ground offensive into Lebanon, Iran launched a missile salvo on Israel. Israel’s emergency services said at least two people sustained light injuries “from shrapnel in the Tel Aviv area”.
Alarms sounded across Israel, and explosions could be heard in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv during the attack late on Tuesday, and the IRGC said it launched dozens of missiles at Israel and that if Israel retaliated, Tehran’s response would be “more crushing and ruinous”. Iran’s state television said 80% of the missiles launched at Israel hit their targets.
The Israel military, meanwhile, said a “large number” of missiles had been intercepted. Speaking to reporters, Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said the attack was serious and would have consequences “in a timely manner”.
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gave the order and remained in a secure location. Iran says it launched a barrage of missiles at Israel in response to the assassinations of senior Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranian officials, sending Israelis rushing to bomb shelters and raising fears of all-out war in the region.
People take cover by the side of a road as a siren sounds after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel, in Tel Aviv, Israel, October 1, 2024.
As for the first day of its ground offensive, the Israeli army confirmed that two of its soldiers had been killed and 18 others wounded in a reported ambush by Hezbollah fighters on the border with the Lebanese town of Odaisseh. Videos of ambulances and helicopters evacuating the dead and injured were broadcast.
Despite the significant damage Israel’s pre-invasion targeting of Hezbollah’s leadership and key military installations in Lebanon may have caused, the Israelis will be mindful that their previous military interventions in Lebanon have hardly been an unmitigated success.
1982 and 2006
Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, which ultimately resulted in the emergence of Hezbollah, led to the Israelis becoming involved in a brutal counter-insurgency campaign in southern Lebanon—one that eventually led to Israel withdrawing its forces in 2000.
The next major clash between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 ended inconclusively after the Israelis and Hezbollah fought themselves to a standstill, resulting in a ceasefire being agreed after little more than a month of intense fighting.
Israel’s decision, therefore, to launch yet another ground offensive in southern Lebanon will not have been taken lightly, so much so that the Israeli military will be making every effort not to make the same mistakes that have adversely impacted their previous interventions.
While the momentum of the conflict is with Israel, its goal of destroying Hezbollah will be a tall order
The Israeli army will certainly have drawn up extensive plans on how to tackle Hezbollah, especially after their experience of fighting the Iranian-backed militia in 2006. Senior Israeli commanders and security officials make no secret of their view that they regard the inconclusive end to hostilities in 2006 as unfinished business and, ever since, have been preparing for a time when they can launch another attack against the Iranian-backed organisation.
Having been thwarted in their effort to limit Hezbollah's ability to target Israel in 2006, the Israelis have made it clear that if the opportunity arose again for them to intervene in Lebanon, their aim would be to deal the militia a deadly blow.
Displaced Israelis
Hezbollah's decision, therefore, to launch waves of missile and drone strikes against Israel in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza following the 7 October attacks has provided Israel with the opportunity it has been waiting for to launch its military campaign to destroy Hezbollah's operations in Lebanon.
Hezbollah's unrelenting attacks against Israel, which began the day after the 7 October attacks and have forced an estimated 70,000 Israelis to flee their homes in northern Israel, has given the Israelis the excuse they have been craving to launch their long-planned military offensive against Hezbollah.
While the Israelis have waited the best part of a year since the 7 October attacks before shifting their focus to the northern border, having initially concentrated their efforts on fighting Hamas in Gaza, it is clear that they now have no intention of ending their military operations in Lebanon until they have inflicted a heavy defeat on Hezbollah—one that will secure Israel's northern border and allow Israeli families to return to their homes.
Israelis evacuated from northern areas near the Lebanese border due to ongoing cross-border tensions lift placards during a rally near the northern Amiad Kibbutz, demanding to return home on December 26, 2023.
Certainly, the fact that the Biden administration, which has previously worked to prevent any further escalation in hostilities in the region, has given its tacit backing to what officials in Washington describe as a "limited operation", with the US supporting "Israel's right to defend itself", will encourage the Israelis that they will not face any significant diplomatic pressure from the US to end its operations in the near future.
US warns Iran
The Israelis will also have been heartened by Washington's explicit warning to Iran that it will face "serious consequences" if it becomes involved in hostilities and attacks Israel.
Another factor that could work to Israel's advantage is that the Lebanese military, which has a strained relationship with Hezbollah, is unlikely to become involved in the conflict at present, having signalled it is withdrawing its forces from the combat zone in southern Lebanon.
Following the start of Israel's long-anticipated military offensive into southern Lebanon, Israeli commanders say they are carrying out limited, localised and targeted ground operations based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
Plumes of smoke rise from the site of the Israeli raid that targeted the Jabal al-Rayhan area in the Jezzine region of southern Lebanon on September 21, 2024.
A senior officer serving with the Israeli Army's Egoz unit, referred to only as Lieutenant Colonel "A", told the troops right before Israeli forces began their advance into Lebanon: "We have a great honour to write history in the North just like we did in Gaza. We started with lower-grade operations, but today, we are starting a more substantial invasion in order to return the northern residents to their homes. This is a substantial matter because we have not invaded Lebanon since 2006."
Intense battles, Tel Aviv hit
Since Israel began carrying out raids across southern Lebanon, there have already been reports of "intense fighting" with Hezbollah, with the Israeli army warning Lebanese civilians against driving south of the Litani River—an 850 sq km-area home to around 20,000 residents.
Hezbollah responded to the Israeli move by firing missiles at the headquarters of the Mossad intelligence agency on the outskirts of Tel Aviv. The group said it had fired "Fadi-4" missiles at the Glilot Base near Herzliya, which is home to the Israeli army's military intelligence unit and Mossad headquarters. The missile reportedly missed its targets and landed in the Tel Aviv area, injuring two people, including a bus driver who was hit in the head with shrapnel.
The fact that Hezbollah is still able to conduct attacks against key Israeli targets after the significant losses it has suffered during the past weeks will certainly raise concerns for Israeli commanders.
A key consideration for the Israeli army will be how much damage Israel's targeted assassination of key leadership figures within Hezbollah's leadership—including the movement's long-standing leader Hassan Nasrallah—will have on the organisation's ability to wage war against Israel.
An image of the late leader of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah with a black stripe for mourning is displayed on a television set airing a broadcast from the private Lebanese station NBN in Beirut on September 28, 2024.
While the death of Nasrallah, who was killed when Israel launched a deadly bombing strike on Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs, has undoubtedly dealt the organisation a major blow, Hezbollah nevertheless remains a formidable threat. With an estimated 60,000-strong fighting force and an estimated 100,000 missiles at its disposal, the Israelis will be well aware that they face a formidable adversary.
As with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah has spent decades preparing for war with Israel and has constructed an elaborate network of tunnels throughout southern Lebanon that can be used to conceal its operations from the prying eyes of Israeli satellites and drones.
Destroying a dedicated and well-resourced enemy such as Hezbollah will be no easy task for the Israelis, as they have discovered during their year-long campaign against Hamas in Gaza. And while, for the moment at least, the momentum of the conflict is with the Israelis, there are no guarantees that their latest invasion of Lebanon will achieve their ultimate objective of destroying Hezbollah.
