The headline outcomes of one of the biggest days in the US electoral calendar—Super Tuesday—concluded without any major surprises.
Nonetheless, early March voting—a set-piece day in any election year in the world’s most powerful democracy—provided some important insight.
A grass-roots campaign in protest at the Biden administration’s policy over the war in Gaza showed how it could have the potential to influence what is expected to be a tight race with an uncertain turnout.
There were vulnerabilities in both parties' bases, suggesting that new and divergent internal dynamics could significantly influence the 2020 presidential race in the big two US political parties.
Super Tuesday was held in 16 full states and the territory of American Samoa to decide the nominations from both parties for the candidates to contest November’s presidential elections.
It also involves nominations for the House of Representatives, the Senate, and various state governments and legislatures.
Both big-name White House candidates closed in on the formal nomination. It will now almost certainly be a re-run of 2020, with Joe Biden, the sitting president, taking on Donald Trump, his immediate predecessor.
The numbers make that clear. Biden has 1,497 of the 1,968 delegates he needs to get over the line without a major rival from within the party running against the sitting president for its nomination.
And Trump’s only remaining Republican rival, Nikki Haley, withdrew from the race, assuring his nomination. The former president's securement of the necessary 1,215 delegates out of 2,429 now looks like no more than a formality.
His confidence was palpable in his remarks following the initial results, in a vigorous critique of Biden and his policies, signalling the beginning of what is expected to be an intensely contested electoral battle between the two men.
Stay-at-home voters
Turnout emerged as an important talking point, sending some important signs, especially in an election year likely to be closely fought. It was low – for both main parties – reflecting what could be a widespread disenchantment with the two candidates.
According to an opinion poll, approximately 60% of Americans are disillusioned by the prospect of a Biden-Trump rematch. Should this lack of enthusiasm hold all the way to election day on 5 November, Biden is likely to be the candidate most exposed.
Trump’s base remains relatively stable and highly loyal, with Republicans historically showing greater discipline and commitment in participating in elections compared to Democrats.
Turnout was a critical factor in Hillary Clinton's defeat by Trump in 2016. That was why, in 2020, the Democratic Party ran an extensive campaign to emphasise the importance of electoral participation and voter registration.
