Cracks emerge in Israel's much-touted missile defences

The aura of invincibility enjoyed for years by Israel’s air defences suddenly finds itself under intense scrutiny following the recent successes achieved by Iran and its proxies in attacking key Israeli infrastructure.

Israel is widely regarded as having some of the world's most sophisticated air defence systems, having invested heavily in recent decades in developing the technology to intercept missile attacks by rival regimes. Starting with the Iron Dome anti-missile defence system, which was originally developed following the 2006 “summer war” between Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and Israel and has a range of up to 70 km, Israel has gone on to develop two more systems that can intercept attacks at far greater range.

David’s Sling has been designed to destroy longer-range rockets, cruise missiles and medium-range or long-range ballistic missiles from a distance of up to 300 km, while the Arrow air defence system can defend Israel against medium-range and long-range ballistic missiles at a range of 2,400 km. In addition, the Israelis can rely on the support provided by allies such as the US, which has a number of warships operating in the region, in the event of facing a major attack by Iran and Iranian-backed militias, including Hamas, Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

The effectiveness of this formidable array of air defence systems was very much in evidence in April when Iran launched its first-ever direct assault against Israel in retaliation to an Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. While Tehran launched an estimated 30 cruise missiles, 120 ballistic missiles and 170 drones towards Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, nearly all of the projectiles were intercepted by a combination of Israeli air defence systems and the military intervention of allies such as the US and UK.

Reality check

The notion, though, that the sophistication of Israel’s air defences makes it immune to penetration by Iran and its proxies is now under serious review in the wake of recent attacks in which both Iran and its allies have succeeded in penetrating Israeli air defences.

The first indication that there could be serious vulnerabilities in Israel's air defences emerged after Iran launched its second direct attack on Israel on 1 October in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil in July and the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who Israel took out in a series of massive air strikes in Dahiyeh that penetrated his underground bunker on 27 September.

Tehran responded by launching an estimated 180 ballistic missiles against Israel, with many of them directed at Israel’s Nevatim airfield. The missiles’ high velocity, combined with the sheer number fired and the fact that the Israelis only had 15 minutes of warning before they were launched, meant that a significant number succeeded in penetrating Israel’s air defences. Apart from striking the air base, footage shared on social media showed missiles exploding in the vicinity of the Mossad headquarters on the northern outskirts of Tel Aviv. Tel Nof, Israel’s largest and oldest air base, was also seemingly targeted in the barrage.

This was not the first time Israel's air defences failed to intercept hostile projectiles fired by Iranian-backed militias. In July, a drone fired by Yemen’s Houthis reached Tel Aviv, while earlier in October, a drone launched from Iraq killed two soldiers in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and just last week, another drone hit a nursing home in central Israel.

But a drone attack on a military base at Binyamina in northern Israel on Sunday, 13 October, which killed four men and injured dozens more, has rattled Israeli leaders and society. The attack—claimed by Hezbollah—was the most damaging drone strike on Israel to date.

Cause for concern

The ability of Iran and its proxies to penetrate Israel’s air defences is certainly a major cause for concern for the Israeli government. Visiting the damaged army base on Monday morning, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said “significant efforts” were being put into solutions that would prevent future drone attacks.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to show no mercy for the militant group following last weekend’s attack.

“We will continue to mercilessly strike Hezbollah in all parts of Lebanon — including Beirut,” Netanyahu said on a visit to the Binyamina base, south of Haifa. The evident vulnerabilities in Israel’s air defence systems are particularly concerning for Israeli ministers as they weigh up their options for launching retaliatory strikes against Iran following its latest missile strike.

While Tehran insists it has no plans to launch further strikes against Israel, it has warned it will respond militarily if Israel decides to launch military action. The realisation that Iran and its proxies have the ability to penetrate Israel’s air defence systems will certainly be a key consideration Israeli ministers will need to take into account as they weigh up their options for launching military action against Iran.

Concerns over Israel’s ability to defend itself from missile and drone attacks launched by the likes of Iran and Hezbollah have now prompted the Biden administration to provide the Israelis with one of the Americans’ most advanced air defence systems. And, in a rare move, the Pentagon announced it would send about 100 US troops to the country to operate it, making it the first deployment of American forces to Israel since the recent war in Gaza broke out in October 2023.

The US announced it would be providing a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) battery, which Pentagon spokesperson Major General Pat Ryder said would help to "bolster" Israel's air defences in the wake of Iran's "unprecedented attacks against Israel on 13 April and again on 1 October". The move comes just hours after Iran warned Washington to keep its forces out of Israel.

Certainly, if Israel is really serious about launching military action against Iran, it will first need to be reassured that, by doing so, it does not leave itself open to devastating retaliatory attacks by Tehran.