Trump-Putin meeting already seen as a win for the Kremlin

Putin heads to Alaska, marking his first visit to the US in a decade and his first meeting with a US president since June 2021, when he shook hands with Biden in Geneva

US President Donald Trump speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as they meet to negotiate for an end to the war in Ukraine, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, US, August 15, 2025.
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
US President Donald Trump speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as they meet to negotiate for an end to the war in Ukraine, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, US, August 15, 2025.

Trump-Putin meeting already seen as a win for the Kremlin

The White House may describe US President Donald Trump’s meeting with his Russian opposite number, Vladimir Putin, as a ‘listening exercise’, but it is no understatement to suggest the future of European security ultimately rests on the outcome of the talks.

A deal that makes clear Putin will not achieve the goals he set when he launched his so-called ‘special military operation’ will be greatly to Europe’s benefit, as it will send a clear message to the Kremlin that military aggression is never the answer to resolving territorial disputes between nations.

Any agreement, though, that hands Putin a victory will be fraught with danger for the rest of Europe, as it will encourage Moscow in the belief that it can use its military might to mount challenges elsewhere in Europe, be it in the Balkans or Central Europe.

Such a move risks triggering Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which would require member states to come to the defence of any member that comes under attack from Russia, thereby running the risk of a world war.

The stakes could therefore not be higher when Trump travels to Alaska on Friday, 15 August, which might explain why the White House is deliberately playing down expectations of a breakthrough.

Rather than predicting any outcome from the Alaska talks, the White House is suggesting there might be a second summit in quick succession, assuming negotiations go well with Putin. Speaking ahead of the summit, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the meeting in Alaska would be more of a ‘listening exercise’ than a negotiation to end the conflict. ‘This is a listening exercise for Trump,’ she said, indicating that the talks might not yield the desired results, and adding that one-on-one discussions are ‘part of the plan.’

DENIS BALIBOUSE / AFP
US President Joe Biden (R) meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) at the 'Villa la Grange' in Geneva on June 16, 2021.

The summit is due to be held in Anchorage, Alaska’s largest city. It is Putin's first visit to the US in a decade and his first meeting with a US president since June 2021, when he shook hands with Biden in Geneva. CNN has reported that the meeting will be held at the US military facility, Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, which is able to provide the necessary security arrangements for the visit.

The Trump administration has hailed the meeting as a breakthrough in its long-running efforts to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict, which has lasted now for three and a half years after Putin launched his so-called ‘special military operation’ to conquer Ukraine in February 2025.

European fears

Many European allies, though, have expressed their concern about the meeting, which they fear may result in Trump agreeing to terms that amount to a sellout of Ukrainian sovereignty. There has been particular concern expressed over Trump’s suggestion that some form of land swap might be involved in the talks.

Even though Trump has previously had several lengthy phone calls with Putin, leading the US leader to believe he had agreed a ceasefire with the Kremlin, no such deal was forthcoming. The Trump administration is therefore keen to play down suggestions that the summit will be seen as a ‘win for Putin’, who is nominally subject to an international arrest warrant over allegations of his involvement in war crimes in Ukraine.

The Alaska summit effectively means an end to Putin's international isolation

Jane Kobzova, co-director of the European Security Programme

"For President Trump, a meeting is not a concession," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an interview prior to the summit. "A meeting is what you do to kind of figure out and make your decision."

Rubio predicted that the negotiations would not be easy, as the war "means a lot to Putin", referring to the estimated 60,000 Russian troops who are reported to have died in combat during the past month. "And of course, the war is very important to Ukraine because they're fighting for their country, they're fighting for their future. They don't want to be part of Russia," Rubio said.

Even so, concerns still persist about just how serious Putin is about ending the conflict, with reports that Russian forces have launched a new offensive in eastern Ukraine with the aim of seizing more territory before the negotiations have even begun. This has led some Western observers to conclude that Putin is trying to create 'facts on the ground' before the Alaska talks as a means of strengthening his bargaining position.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who will not be present at the talks but is working hard to lobby his Western allies about Ukraine's concerns, has warned that Putin is simply "bluffing: and has no serious interest in a deal. "I told the US President and all our European colleagues that Putin is bluffing," Zelenskyy said at a joint briefing in Berlin with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Trump warning

Trump, however, insists there will be "severe consequences" for Putin if progress is not made in Alaska. He has previously warned about imposing punitive secondary sanctions against countries, like China and India, that continue to trade with Moscow despite international sanctions. To this end, a bill is currently being discussed in Congress that would impose punitive tariffs of up to 500% against countries that continue to trade with Moscow. Last week, Trump indicated his determination to press ahead with the measures by imposing an extra 25% tariff on India for continuing to trade with Russia.

Despite this threat, many Western commentators believe the very fact that Putin is meeting Trump places the Russian leader in an advantageous position. "The Alaska summit effectively means an end to Putin's international isolation," said Jane Kobzova, programme co-director of the European Security Programme.

"No major Western leader has met with him since the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Now he gets a summit with the US President without any concessions on his part, such as a pause in the war against Ukraine. In itself, that is already a good outcome for Putin."

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