Israel's Gaza offensive could derail improved ties with Turkeyhttps://en.majalla.com/node/302026/politics/israels-gaza-offensive-could-derail-improved-ties-turkey
Israel's Gaza offensive could derail improved ties with Turkey
Erdoğan started by calling on both sides for restraint but later hardened his rhetoric after Israel's brutal bombing of Gaza.
AFP
Turkish President and AK Party Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdogan holds a sign showing the evolution of lands of Israel and Palestine on maps at his party's group meeting in the Turkish National Assembly in Ankara on October 11, 2023.
Israel's Gaza offensive could derail improved ties with Turkey
The Israeli war on Gaza has come at a very inopportune time for Turkey.
Relations between Turkey and Israel — which deteriorated sharply since the Israeli raid on the Turkish ship Mavi Marmara, carrying aid to Gaza in 2010 — have been picking up recently.
Turkish President Recept Tayyip Erdoğan and Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu met in New York last month, on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly, and Netanyahu was expected to visit Turkey soon in what would be the first visit by an Israeli Prime Minister since Ehud Olmert’s in 2008.
Erdoğan started by making cool-headed statements and called on both sides for restraint, which aligned with Turkey’s new policy of mending relations with countries in the region, including Israel.
But after Israel’s retaliatory bombing of Gaza began, Erdoğan’s calls and statements hardened.
Erdoğan started by calling on both sides for restraint, which aligned with Turkey's new policy of mending relations with countries in the region, including Israel. But after Israel's retaliatory bombing of Gaza began, Erdoğan's statements hardened.
On Friday, President Erdoğan, at his closing speech of the Turkey-Africa Business and Economic Forum, talked again about the ongoing tragedy, describing Israel's actions violating the most basic rights of Palestinians living in the enclave.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry's official statement also said, "forcing the Gaza population to relocate is a blatant breach of international law and inhumane." It called on Israel to halt its brutal and indiscriminate bombing campaign.
Erdoğan's dilemma
Erdoğan's dilemma is that, on the one hand, he feels close to the Palestinian cause and Hamas. His constituents and ideologically based grassroots supporters care deeply about the Palestinian cause.
On the other hand, he is well aware of realpolitik and the benefits of improved relations with Israel. Just like in the Russia-Ukraine war, Turkey wants to be a country that can "talk to both sides".
Turkey is trying to insert itself by offering to negotiate for the release of Israeli hostages through its good relations with Hamas. Any progress there could lead to mediation and deeper involvement.
Erdoğan's dilemma is that his constituents and ideologically based grassroots supporters care deeply about the Palestinian cause. On the other hand, he is well aware of realpolitik and the benefits of improved relations with Israel.
To this end, the Turkish foreign minister is planning to visit Cairo. The two former rivals, Turkey and Egypt, which are improving their relations, could effectively cooperate to help Palestinians in Gaza.
Humanitarian aid through Rafah will top the agenda.
A Palestinian woman covers sleeping children with a blanket as they take refuge in a United Nations school, in the Rafah refugee camp, in the southern Gaza Strip on October 14, 2023.
Both countries have relations with Hamas, which could be useful to negotiate an end to the current hostilities. Relations between Turkey and other Arab countries have also picked up in the last couple of years.
President Erdoğan has spoken with his Arab counterparts — Saudi, Emirati, Egyptian, Jordanian and others —on the telephone, since the beginning of the crisis.
Turkish-Arab cooperation should positively contribute to efforts to stop the onslaught and help the Palestinians, but there is a possibility that differences could once again surface around Hamas.
This was a major problem between the two sides previously.
Turkish-Arab cooperation should positively contribute to efforts to stop the onslaught and help the Palestinians, but there is a possibility that differences could once again surface around Hamas.
Turkey looking to deescalate tensions
With Iran, Turkey has been on opposing sides of conflicts in places such as Syria and the Caucasus, but Turks do not favour direct military confrontation with Iran.
Turkey is already struggling to cope with the impact of the Syrian and Ukrainian crises, so it is not inclined to open the door to confrontation with Iran. It cannot afford another stream of refugees pouring through its borders —Turkey already hosts the highest number of refugees in the world.
Syrian refugee children play under posters depicting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey at a camp on the outskirts of Kahramanmaras in southeastern Turkey, Aug. 31, 2019.
Turkey also wants to be a key player as a hub and transit for natural gas. It has been competing with Cyprus and Greece to carry Arab and Israeli natural gas to Europe.
This is one of the key reasons Turkey was keen on improving its relations with Israel, but any fresh friction could jeopardise this.
Turkey may once again find itself at odds with its NATO Allies. The US and almost all Western countries have positioned themselves on the side of Israel, whereas Turkey is more in the middle and more sympathetic to the Palestinian side.
Giving the US the cold shoulder
Throughout the conflict, President Erdoğan's attitude toward the US has been worth noting. Turkey's president and foreign minister had phone calls with many of their Western counterparts, but not American.
The Turkish President criticised the US for sending the USS Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group, which includes an aircraft carrier, a guided missile cruiser and four destroyers.
In response to the Hamas attack on Israel, the United States has begun moving the USS Gerald R. Ford to the eastern Mediterranean, US Defence Secretary said on 8 October 2023.
His statements clarify that his reaction is not solely based on US policies regarding Palestine. He is also weary of American support for the YPG — particularly after the US shot down a Turkish drone in Syria last week.
The incident marked a significant turn in the relationship between the two NATO allies, from having some disagreements to one of strategic antipathy.
