As Gaza braces for Israeli ground offensive, stakeholders set their red lines

Israel says its objective is to eliminate Hamas as diplomats seek clarity in a time of political shock. Meanwhile, Iran wants to hold onto its 'Palestinian card'.

Majalla/AFP

Israeli army tanks and vehicles deploy along the border with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel on October 13, 2023.

As Gaza braces for Israeli ground offensive, stakeholders set their red lines

Ibrahim Hamidi

last update on 14 Oct 2023

The shock Hamas incursion from Gaza into Israel on 7 October has sparked a dramatic round of diplomacy across the Middle East and the world.

In major capitals, reactions unfold alongside Israel's military assault from the air and on the ground. Presidents, prime ministers and ambassadors have two aims: to set the boundaries of Israel’s coming ground offensive against Gaza and to influence the ultimate objectives set by both sides for this land home to 2.3 million Palestinians.

The ongoing flurry of contact between official government representatives and figures from intelligence circles will potentially contribute to what happens next.

Al Majalla looks at the current state of international affairs at this fragile and dangerous time and the stances being taken by governments worldwide, including in the region.

This review comes at a moment of great peril – for the region, the Palestinians and the world – as leaders everywhere react to an acute intensification of a long-running crisis.

Israel

Israel has made its aims clear. Netanyahu stated it would be a “long and difficult war”, promising Israel would win. How far it will be allowed to go – and at what cost – will prove definitive.

AFP — Israeli army infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) deploy along the border with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel on October 13, 2023.

Israel says it wants to eradicate Hamas from Gaza, via comprehensive military action undertaken by air, land, and sea. Eliminating Hamas and its influence would amount to a substantial strategic transformation.

Israel has not just asserted its commitment to defending its borders, it has also signalled readiness to engage beyond them, including in Syria and Lebanon. With this objective in mind, it has already called for an international military and political coalition, like the one used against the Islamic State (IS).

It seeks and arguably has global support for its cause, both to bolster its looming ground offensive in Gaza and to deter the allies of Iran from opening other military fronts against it.

And so, Israel has already launched pre-emptive strikes on airports in Damascus and Aleppo.

AFP — Satellite images showing damage to Damascus International Airport in Syria, after an Israeli airstrike in January 2023.

It has also engaged in tit-for-tat exchanges with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. While the established rules of engagement between Tel Aviv and Hezbollah have held, the sides have traded fire as far as the Shebaa Farms region.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has established a unity government and a war cabinet. It includes the leader of a centre-right party, Benny Gantz, opposed to the main coalition.

Netanyahu also has the backing of the main opposition leader – Yair Lapid, a centrist and former prime minister – to “eliminate Hamas”. But Lapid will not join the full unity government because he brands members of the Israeli coalition as extremists.

Israel seeks and arguably has global support for its cause, both to bolster its looming ground offensive in Gaza and to deter the allies of Iran from opening other military fronts against it.

Iran

Tehran has used intermediaries to set out its red lines to the West. It does not want Hamas to be removed from power, or any significant strategic realignment in the region.

According to one of the intermediaries, Iran's stance comes partly from religious considerations: Dismantling Hamas would mean it would lose its only Sunni component in its so-called "axis of resistance", which is predominantly Shiite.

There are also strategic concerns: losing Hamas would mean Tehran loses its "Palestinian card", which it uses to stay involved in the Arab-Israeli conflict.

These messages have been sent to Washington, London, and Paris, accompanied by a signal of Tehran's readiness to open up new fronts as the conflict escalates – in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq – to prevent such a shift from taking place.

Reuters — Flares, fired from the Israeli side, burn in the sky as seen from Ramyah near the Lebanese-Israeli border in southern Lebanon, October 11, 2023.

Tehran communicated its opposition to a large-scale ground invasion of Gaza and, to a lesser extent, the targeted assassination of prominent Hamas leaders. That shows its recognition of how both moves would weaken Hamas.

Losing Hamas would mean Tehran loses its "Palestinian card", which it uses to stay involved in the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Syria

In Syria, messages were relayed to President Bashar al-Assad via Moscow, advising against active involvement in this significant conflict.

The guidance suggested that the Syrian army maintain military neutrality along the Golan Heights and that Iranian activities in Syria should be kept in check. There have been indications that official instructions along these lines have been issued.

Damascus is seeking a balance between three key factors:

Iran's political and military pressure to mobilise its militias in southern Syria, potentially for launching bombing attacks to create or threaten a new front.
Arab demands maintaining a path of normalisation and closer ties with Arab capitals.
Its hostility toward Hamas and its amicable relationship with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and the Fatah movement.

Al-Assad's call sheet reflects the complex international political dynamics at play in Damascus.

He received two phone calls addressing the Gaza situation – one from UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed – and another from Iran's President Ibrahim Raisi.

Arab messages

The Arab world has warned Western capitals over the potential consequences of an Israeli military ground operation in Gaza.

There is the prospect of a catastrophic mass exodus toward Egypt. That raises concerns about long- and short-term consequences, from terrorist threats to demographic shifts.

AFP — Palestinians leaving north Gaza. Israel has called for the immediate relocation of 1.1 million people in Gaza amid its massive bombardment in retaliation for Hamas's attacks, with the UN warning of "devastating" consequences.

As remnants of IS remain in the vicinity, extremist factions could exploit any power vacuum resulting from the removal of Hamas.

In Syria, messages were relayed to President Bashar al-Assad via Moscow, advising against active involvement in this significant conflict.

The immediate focus is on addressing the current situation's urgent humanitarian and military aspects. However, there is a growing consensus about the need to address what happens next and have a comprehensive plan in place to deal with any possible scenario.

That includes reassessing the rules over the impending conflict and exploring potential interim agreements.

A complete deal should address matters ranging from the exchange of prisoners and captives to the establishment of humanitarian corridors, to help provide safe passage for Palestinians who wish to leave Gaza.

It should also involve support for the West Bank and the Palestinian National Authority. Any – and all – avenues toward a political process and a lasting settlement must be explored. There is a proposal to convene an Arab mini-summit with the specific objective of facilitating these efforts.

America and the West

Western nations support Israel's stance against Hamas, providing military, intelligence, and political backing.

The Biden White House has demonstrated a reluctance to implicate Iran in Hamas' 7 October offensive.

Washington lacks an appetite for direct confrontation with Iran. It wants to confine the conflict to Gaza, and it wants Israel to adhere to existing and agreed rules of engagement in its offensive in Gaza.

Washington has demonstrated a reluctance to implicate Iran in Hamas' 7 October offensive. Biden's administration lacks an appetite for direct confrontation with Iran. It wants to confine the conflict to Gaza.

Hamas

Hamas officials defend the 7 October attack by its military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, viewing it as a natural response to ongoing Israeli transgressions.

These include actions by the far-right government such as incorporating "extremist agendas" into government policies, prisoner restrictions, incursions into the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, and ongoing assassinations.

In private discussions, Hamas officials have admitted to "individual" violations against Israeli women and children during the attack.

Recent meetings between Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah officials in Beirut have aimed to coordinate positions. Hamas's message is clear: "The time has come to open up new fronts and support Gaza in bringing about a counter-strategic shift. Hamas is prepared for this battle, and the outcome will be determined on the battlefield."

What next?

All sides will continue to signal their positions over whatever lies ahead, whenever it happens.

Messages and signals will be sent — whether through diplomatic channels, intelligence efforts, official statements, or military actions in various conflict zones. Some of this messaging will serve strategic purposes, and some of it will be intended primarily to save face.

At present, the boundaries of the Gaza conflict remain undefined. The question remains whether they will stay within Gaza's borders or cross these red lines into neighbouring territories.

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