Two past 'shocks' to Israel brought political change. What will this third shock bring?

It transformed Likud, led by Menachem Begin, into the party of government. This monumental shift resulted in profound changes across Israeli society, reverberating throughout the nation and shaping it today.

Second shock

The second shock came in 1987 with the outbreak of the First Intifada, or uprising, in December. Large crowds of Palestinians took to the streets in unprecedented anti-Israeli protests.

No one expected such a large movement to develop ­– from the national unity government led by Likud and Labour ruling Israel to most Arabs – including even the Palestinians themselves.

The Intifada became an organised, cohesive and comprehensive response to the Israeli occupation. It changed the Palestinian movement, producing a pivot in global support to its cause, while deeply dividing opinion in Israel about what to do.

Again, there were consequences at the Israeli polls. Yitzhak Rabin's Labour Party and the left-wing Meretz Party were voted into government, with the religious Shas Party.

This government recognised the Palestine Liberation Organisation, signed the Oslo Accords, and established the Palestinian Authority. All those changes reverberate through Israeli politics and society to this day.

Third shock

And so, to the latest surprise – the Hamas infiltration into Israel.

It not only surprised the Israelis but also the Arab world and the wider global community. It particularly surprises the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah on the West Bank and other factions — no one saw it coming.

But the shock was deepest in Israel.

The Ynet website reported just hours after the Hamas attack began: "The Israeli intelligence and operational failure resonates unimaginably. First, the deployment of forces on the border failed to prevent the infiltration of dozens of Hamas fighters, from several areas at once, as though there had been almost no Israeli military presence there."

"After hours of infiltration, there were not enough troops and soldiers, who were probably sent home for the holiday, just like Yom Kippur 50 years ago."

"The intelligence failure is no less dangerous. Despite the fear of escalation due to the demonstrations at the fence about ten days ago, since Israel renewed the entry of workers to work in Israel, the general feeling in Israel was that the danger of escalation was behind us."

"No one could have imagined such a declaration of war and Hamas's (effective) performance. In the days leading up to this, Hamas sent hundreds of residents to demonstrate at the fence, while, at the same time, Islamic Jihad conducted an extensive exercise there. It may have been an intelligence trick. Yes, just like 50 years ago."

"The origin of the surprise was the concept that had been repeated for years, since the Shalit deal, and maybe before that, that Hamas is: (A) Deterrence. (B)- First and foremost, concerned with governance, the economy and work permits."

"Someone slept on guard. Someone thought it was an organisation that wanted money and nothing more. Perhaps no one remembered the people at the head of Hamas (Abu Khaled - Mohammed Deif and Abu Ibrahim - Yahya Al-Sanwar). There are those here who have forgotten that Hamas remains Hamas. It has not changed its skin and is still committed to releasing prisoners."

In an interview held shortly after the Hamas attacks began, Palestinian activist Thabet Abu Ras succinctly captured the evolving situation in Israel: "The Hamas-initiated attack is truly unprecedented. It marks the first time since 1948 that Palestinian military forces have been able to shift the battleground to Israel's interior."

"The prevailing Jewish supremacy and the government's handling of Palestinian issues, particularly concerning Al-Aqsa, dialogues, and conditions within prisons, as well as the potential of Saudi normalisation with Israel have left Palestinians exploring various alternatives."

Israel political discord

It came against a backdrop of internal discord within Israel, with fierce debate over Netanyahu's judicial and structural reforms and a robust opposition movement that has been protesting for ten months.

Discussions about potential normalisation with Saudi Arabia further complicate these internal dynamics.

Netanyahu has signalled a decision to bypass reconciliation with the Palestinians to pursue a more comprehensive reconciliation with the Arab world. These complexities underscore Israel's multifaceted challenges on both domestic and regional fronts.

Read more: Why did Hamas start a war with Israel?

Indeed, in the wake of the Hamas attack, Netanyahu and his government – along with a startled political and military leadership – began to strategise a military response and issued stern threats.

Nearly a week after the attack, Gaza has turned into a death camp with nowhere to escape from the relentless bombing that has already killed hundreds of Palestinian men, women and children. 

However, while outraged about what happened and wanting to rally around a leader to 'retaliate' against the attacks, the Israeli public still seems to hold Netanyahu responsible for the failure.

An editorial in Haaretz wrote: "The disaster that befell Israel on the holiday of Simchat Torah is the clear responsibility of one person: Benjamin Netanyahu."

"The prime minister, who has prided himself on his vast political experience and irreplaceable wisdom in security matters, completely failed to identify the dangers he was consciously leading Israel into when establishing a government of annexation and dispossession and when appointing Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir to key positions."

What next?

Predicting the long-term outcomes is complex. But if history serves as a guide, we can anticipate significant political transformations in upcoming elections or subsequent political developments.

In the short term, we can expect internal strife and disputes among the various factions within the Israeli government. There will also be tensions between the government and the opposition.

Yair Lapid, the head of the opposition, expressed his readiness to participate in a national government. This move opens up the possibility of forming a government that can address the evolving situation through consensus and balance between the right-wing and the centre-ground factions.

Most likely, there will be little alteration in the government's composition, as any change could trigger repercussions related to the disputes surrounding the judicial reforms, the aftermath of the demonstrations, and the delicate balance of power within the opposition.

Netanyahu is poised to exploit the current situation to undermine the opposition and its agenda, maintaining a stringent stance both domestically and internationally. His allies in this endeavour include religious parties and far-right extremist groups.

Extremist right-wing groups have already started inciting attacks against Palestinian citizens with Israeli citizenship.