Russia performs delicate balancing act as Israel wages war on Gaza

While the Soviet Union played an active role in the Middle East peace process, in the years after Russia has been mainly a spectator.

AFP

Russia's President Vladimir Putin giving an interview to Al Ghad television station after a plenary session of the Russian Energy Week forum in Moscow on October 11, 2023.

Russia performs delicate balancing act as Israel wages war on Gaza

Anton Mardasov

last update on 13 Oct 2023

The current Israeli war on Gaza complicates Russia's geopolitical standing in the region. The Kremlin has long adopted a more or less cautious stance on taking positions in the conflict. Its political statements on the conflict are usually limited to expressing "concern" about escalation and stressing the need for a "peaceful settlement".

An upcoming and pre-planned visit by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to Moscow could give an indication of any possible changes in the Russian position.

The meeting also comes amid media speculation of possible indirect Russian support for Hamas. The group had previously voiced support for Putin's invasion of Ukraine, while Israel has backed Kyiv in the conflict.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, an ally of Putin, has expressed support for Palestinians and has even suggested that his country could send peacekeepers to Gaza.

Moscow preoccupied

The escalation in Gaza and Israel has diverted international attention away from the war in Ukraine, which works in the Kremlin's favour. However, Russia's involvement in the Ukraine war has also affected its ability to play a bigger role in the Middle East.

Moscow has also been preoccupied with the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Not to mention, the fall-out from the Wagner mutiny attempt earlier this year dealt a blow to Moscow's mercenary reach in the region.

Amid the Kremlin’s more limited scope to affect events, pro-Iranian groups across the region are already recruiting and attempting to redeploy fighters, raising the scope for additional conflict should a new military front against Israel be opened.

Lebanese soldiers and bystanders stand on a road overlooking the border area with the northern Israeli town of Metulla on October 8, 2023, after Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel said they traded cross-border fire.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah — also backed by Iran — has upped its activity. It shelled Shebaa Farms and the Israeli barracks of Biranit and Avivim, although these attacks align with established engagement patterns.

The escalation in Gaza and Israel has diverted international attention away from the war in Ukraine, which works in the Kremlin's favour. However, Russia's involvement in the Ukraine war has also affected its ability to play a bigger role in the Middle East.

Dwindling influence and credibility in the region

During the Soviet era, Russia played a more significant role in Middle East politics and exerted more influence in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. It was more than a spectator; it was an active participant.

Historically, Russia has engaged and worked with both Israelis and Palestinians. In 1947 and 1948, Andrei Gromyko, a senior Soviet diplomat and UN representative, backed Israel, but later, in 1973, he criticised Israel, accusing it of provoking the war with Egypt and Syria.

Since 2006, there have been high-level Hamas visits to Russia.

At Putin's invitation, representatives from the Hamas politburo held their first meeting in Moscow with diplomats, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

AFP — Abed al-Hafeez Nofal, the Palestinian ambassador to Moscow, and exiled Hamas deputy leader Mussa Abu Marzuq give a press conference along with other representatives of Palestinian political parties in Moscow on January 17, 2017.

It had the twin goal of exploiting warring parties in the conflict to advance its own political interests and also demonstrate that it could pursue its own diplomatic track, apart from the Middle East Quartet comprising, the US, EU, UN and Russia.

But Moscow's direct support for the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad ultimately killed its credibility in the region. It lost any semblance of being a fair and balanced regional broker by aligning with the regime and its Iranian backers.

Then came the Abraham Accords, which pushed Russian diplomacy into the shadows. While Moscow supports the normalisation of relations between Arab states and Israel in theory, it also felt snubbed by being left out of the process.

Therefore, Russia has tried to discredit the normalisation process and position itself as a more effective broker. To this end, Russia chose Palestine as the first Middle Eastern territory to receive the Sputnik-V COVID-19 vaccine in January 2021.

Russia also placed itself as one of the guarantors of Hamas's promise to hold legislative, presidential and Palestinian National Council elections.

This marked an attempt by Russia to improve its standing in the region after its backing of al-Assad damaged it.

AFP — A young Syrian holds a caricature representing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a protest against the continuing assault by the Syrian regime and Russian forces in Idlib on February 21, 2020.

Moscow's direct support for the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad ultimately killed its credibility in the region. It lost any semblance of being a fair and balanced regional broker by aligning with the regime and its Iranian backers.

Gift to Kremlin?

The Russian media – and some officials – have said that Western weapons sent to Ukraine have ended up in the hands of Hamas. At the same time, Ukrainian intelligence has accused Russia of handing over these arms to Hamas as "trophy" weapons taken from Kyiv's forces during the war.

In an interview with Politico, one European diplomat called the current escalation a gift to the Kremlin over Ukraine, because somehow an attack on Israel will divide attention, not least due to the United States' long-standing support for Israel.

Russian media reports already suggest that part of the responsibility for the descent into fresh violence comes after the West blocked progress at the Middle East Quartet. There is a broader message, too, suggesting Washington and its allies should now concentrate on the Middle East, not Ukraine.

However, if the conflict expands to the wider region, this could lead to a deterioration in relations between Russia and Israel and further destabilisation in Syria, further restricting Russia's options, leaving its hands tied.

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