Lifting the curtain on al-Burhan's departure from Khartoum. What now for Sudan?

The de facto national leader appeared in public to disavow Islamist rule after signs the Rapid Support Forces reportedly took control of the capital

AFP

A handout image posted on the Sudanese Armed Forces's Facebook page on August 31, 2023, shows army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan gesturing as he walks among other army members during a tour of a neighbourhood in Port Sudan.

Lifting the curtain on al-Burhan's departure from Khartoum. What now for Sudan?

Amgad Fareid Eltayeb

last update on 04 Sep 2023

Speculation over the balance of power created by the civil war in Sudan has mounted after the leader of the regular army left Khartoum.

Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan held a series of public appearances and toured military sites on the way to Port Sudan, where he made a passionate speech to troops, decrying Islamists.

His itinerary included the Wadi Seidna Air Base in the western part of Omdurman and the government’s new headquarters in Port Sudan, via Atbara.

Al-Burhan’s departure came after growing chatter that the Rapid Support Forces militia had gained an upper hand over the army in Khartoum and were encircling the regular army’s headquarters.

Al-Burhan has rarely been seen since the conflict with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia began in mid-April and was thought to be in hiding.

AFP — Al-Burhan before leaving Khartoum in a photo distributed by the Transitional Sovereignty Council on August 29.

RSF members reported seeing a helicopter land — possibly to evacuate the general. However, they did not attack it, citing humanitarian concerns for what could have been a medical mission.

Al-Burhan has kept busy in his absence from Khartoum, addressing public rallies in other areas of the country. He was even spotted sharing a cup of coffee with a roadside vendor.

المناطق التي زارها الفريق عبدالفتاح البرهان عند الساعة السادسة صباح اليوم الخميس 24 /8/2023 سكان الحارة ١٠٠ إسكان الصحافيين وارتكاز القوات المسلحة بترجله من سيارة رئاسية والجلوس لبائعة الشاي ملاك وطلب قهوة صباحية وسط دهشة الحضور وتدافع الحضور بلقائية نحوه وقد داعب بعضهم و غادر... pic.twitter.com/z1qlbjEjaK
— أحمد القرشي إدريس (@ahmadhgurashi) August 24, 2023

Claims over the departure denied

The RSF claimed that other army leaders were not informed of al-Burhan’s departure, but reportedly two members of his security detail were killed and one of his close military aides was shot in the foot during the operation to get him out of the capital.

Its media and propaganda machine claimed it was the result of an international agreement for him to leave — a claim echoed by leaders from the Freedom and Change movement, Sudan’s coalition of civilian groups and organisations opposed to Islamist rule.

Al-Burhan denied these claims in a passionate speech to his troops at Port Sudan’s Flamingo Naval Base. He said that his departure was part of a military operation and no mention was made of any agreement reached.

The lack of direct or indirect communication between the regular army and the RSF since the breakdown of negotiations in Jeddah seems to back his claims. Ongoing disagreements among the intermediaries also make any international deal on moving the general unlikely.

The RSF claims al-Burhan's departure was the result of an international agreement for him to leave — a claim echoed by leaders from the Freedom and Change movement. However, the army leader denied these claims and said he left Khartoum for a military operation.

Stalemate in Khartoum

Whatever the circumstances of al-Burhan's departure from the capital, the state of the battle on the ground in and around Khartoum is more important.

The RSF has been engaged in an offensive against a heavily fortified armour battalion camp to the south of the city for several days without success. It stretched the militia's resources and forced them to withdraw from several entrenched positions in Khartoum. This shift allowed the army to advance and consolidate its control over key areas.

What matters now is not how al-Burhan left the capital, but the path he will choose in the weeks and months ahead. The Sudanese people desperately want the war to end as soon as possible.

The conflict has taken a heavy toll on the Sudanese people.

Many lives have been lost and communities have been shattered by the fighting. The destruction has been widespread across the country and its citizens have fled to neighbouring nations and around the world to escape the fighting.

AFP — Sudanese refugees in eastern Chad on August 14.

What matters now is not how al-Burhan left the capital, but the path he will choose in the weeks and months ahead. The Sudanese people desperately want the war to end as soon as possible.

Deal with the deep-state Islamists

This presents al-Burhan with several key challenges.

The main one is to liberate the state from the grip of Islamists from the Omar al-Bashir era who still maintain a presence in government institutions. These Islamists have exploited the chaos of war to spread their influence

They certainly added fuel to the fire which resulted in a full-blown confrontation between the two sides. When the war unexpectedly erupted, the regular army was caught off guard.

Conflict suited the Islamists, who positioned themselves as the exclusive civilian supporters of the army's struggle against the militia. This helped them tighten their grip on state institutions as the fighting raged.

This Islamist resurgence in the deep state was seen across administrative, economic, and judicial functions of government. People imprisoned for their roles in the deposed al-Bashir regime were notably released.

Foreign policy problems

Their influence extended to foreign policy with the Muslim Brotherhood exerting its influence over diplomatic initiatives — the same source of the antagonism between Sudan and the international community in the early 1990s.

Visas appeared to be blocked for personnel from international humanitarian organisations trying to come to the country's aid, compromising the much-needed distribution of emergency supplies, including food. As well as worsening the suffering of the people, this helped conditions on the ground stay ripe for fighting, keeping citizens under control.

The extent of the Muslim Brotherhood's influence has hurt Sudan's relationship with the international community and the United Nations. For example, the UN special representative to Sudan was declared persona non grata and blocked from re-entering the country.

JeRoen Murré

Al-Burhan's Flamingo Naval Base speech was widely seen as an attempt to distance himself and the army from the Islamists.

The extent of the Muslim Brotherhood's influence has hurt Sudan's relationship with the international community and the United Nations. Al-Burhan's Flamingo Naval Base speech was widely seen as an attempt to distance himself and the army from the Islamists.

Sovereign Council overhaul

But al-Burhan will have to do a lot more to break the link. He must overhaul the Sovereign Council that he chairs, which was set up after the end of the al-Bashir era to run the country and move it toward civilian rule.

Cleaning it up and streamlining it would help it restore essential services to the Sudanese population across various regions. This should be the focus, rather than its political composition.

After his departure from Khartoum, al-Burhan remains the central authority in the current administration. His primary task is to restore peace to Sudan. To do so, he will need a full understanding of how the conflict erupted and which parties were responsible.

AFP — Members of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) stand guard during the General's meeting with his supporters in the capital Khartoum on June 18, 2019.

The seeds of the latest war were sown in the coup of 25 October 2021. That was when the military partnered with the RSF to overthrow the civilian government that had replaced al-Bashir.

However, the regular army and the RSF ended up in a power struggle that became the current full-blown war.

Al-Burhan will have to do a lot more to break the link between him and the Islamists. He must overhaul the Sovereign Council that he chairs, which was set up after the end of the al-Bashir era to run the country and move it toward civilian rule.

Time for a full political resolution

A political solution is necessary to resolve the problem once and for all. This requires a fair and transparent dialogue involving all civilian forces other than the remnants of the previous regime. This discourse should be open, principled, and clear.

Political dealmaking should not be allowed to take place in the shadows. In fact, this practice helped create the conditions that led to war. A comprehensive political solution is needed, not just a settlement between factions to distribute the spoils of war amongst each other.

AFP

It has become increasingly evident that there is no military solution to this conflict. Prolonged fighting will only heighten the suffering of the Sudanese people and worsen the devastation.

To stop this vicious circle of violence, the following steps are required:

Depoliticisation of the army
Disbandment of the RSF
Outlawing any military organisations outside the purview of the army, including the Al-Baraa Ibn Malik Brigade of Islamic volunteers

These measures are not designed to keep any specific individual or faction in power. For any hope of a stable and prosperous future, all those who started the war must be excluded from power.

Sudan's survival is at stake.

International help

The stability of Sudan and the cessation of the war have regional implications.

To this end, al-Burhan has since embarked on his first foreign visits since the war began, starting with Egypt. He also plans to visit Saudi Arabia and South Sudan, all of which have significant connections with Sudan.

He should also consider visiting Ethiopia — Sudan's largest neighbour and where the headquarters of the African Union is stationed — as well as Kenya, where recent diplomatic tension between the two countries needs to be urgently addressed.

As the de facto leader of the country, al-Burhan should secure all the help he can to bring an end to the conflict. If he attends the upcoming UN General Assembly, he should work to repair the animosity between Sudan and the UN brought on by the government's poor diplomacy.

The UN is not an enemy. It provides access to an internationally agreed global system designed to allow for functioning government, under established principles drawn up via international collaboration.

For the benefit of Sudan's long-suffering people, it is vital that we engage with it.

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