Lifting the curtain on al-Burhan's departure from Khartoum. What now for Sudan?

Stalemate in Khartoum

Whatever the circumstances of al-Burhan's departure from the capital, the state of the battle on the ground in and around Khartoum is more important.

The RSF has been engaged in an offensive against a heavily fortified armour battalion camp to the south of the city for several days without success. It stretched the militia's resources and forced them to withdraw from several entrenched positions in Khartoum. This shift allowed the army to advance and consolidate its control over key areas.

What matters now is not how al-Burhan left the capital, but the path he will choose in the weeks and months ahead. The Sudanese people desperately want the war to end as soon as possible. 

The conflict has taken a heavy toll on the Sudanese people.

Many lives have been lost and communities have been shattered by the fighting. The destruction has been widespread across the country and its citizens have fled to neighbouring nations and around the world to escape the fighting.

Read more: As Sudan burns, one refugee embarks on a harrowing journey into the unknown

Deal with the deep-state Islamists

This presents al-Burhan with several key challenges.

The main one is to liberate the state from the grip of Islamists from the Omar al-Bashir era who still maintain a presence in government institutions. These Islamists have exploited the chaos of war to spread their influence

They certainly added fuel to the fire which resulted in a full-blown confrontation between the two sides. When the war unexpectedly erupted, the regular army was caught off guard.

Conflict suited the Islamists, who positioned themselves as the exclusive civilian supporters of the army's struggle against the militia. This helped them tighten their grip on state institutions as the fighting raged.

This Islamist resurgence in the deep state was seen across administrative, economic, and judicial functions of government. People imprisoned for their roles in the deposed al-Bashir regime were notably released.

Foreign policy problems

Their influence extended to foreign policy with the Muslim Brotherhood exerting its influence over diplomatic initiatives — the same source of the antagonism between Sudan and the international community in the early 1990s.

Visas appeared to be blocked for personnel from international humanitarian organisations trying to come to the country's aid, compromising the much-needed distribution of emergency supplies, including food. As well as worsening the suffering of the people, this helped conditions on the ground stay ripe for fighting, keeping citizens under control.

The extent of the Muslim Brotherhood's influence has hurt Sudan's relationship with the international community and the United Nations. For example, the UN special representative to Sudan was declared persona non grata and blocked from re-entering the country.

Read more: UN envoy to Sudan optimistic about transition to civilian rule

Al-Burhan's Flamingo Naval Base speech was widely seen as an attempt to distance himself and the army from the Islamists.

Sovereign Council overhaul

But al-Burhan will have to do a lot more to break the link. He must overhaul the Sovereign Council that he chairs, which was set up after the end of the al-Bashir era to run the country and move it toward civilian rule.

Cleaning it up and streamlining it would help it restore essential services to the Sudanese population across various regions. This should be the focus, rather than its political composition.

After his departure from Khartoum, al-Burhan remains the central authority in the current administration. His primary task is to restore peace to Sudan. To do so, he will need a full understanding of how the conflict erupted and which parties were responsible. 

Read more: Explainer: Why are military forces fighting each other in Sudan?

The seeds of the latest war were sown in the coup of 25 October 2021. That was when the military partnered with the RSF to overthrow the civilian government that had replaced al-Bashir.

However, the regular army and the RSF ended up in a power struggle that became the current full-blown war. 

Time for a full political resolution

A political solution is necessary to resolve the problem once and for all. This requires a fair and transparent dialogue involving all civilian forces other than the remnants of the previous regime. This discourse should be open, principled, and clear.

Political dealmaking should not be allowed to take place in the shadows. In fact, this practice helped create the conditions that led to war. A comprehensive political solution is needed, not just a settlement between factions to distribute the spoils of war amongst each other.

Read more: The war in Sudan is really a battle over spoils

It has become increasingly evident that there is no military solution to this conflict. Prolonged fighting will only heighten the suffering of the Sudanese people and worsen the devastation.

To stop this vicious circle of violence, the following steps are required:

• Depoliticisation of the army

• Disbandment of the RSF

• Outlawing any military organisations outside the purview of the army, including the Al-Baraa Ibn Malik Brigade of Islamic volunteers

These measures are not designed to keep any specific individual or faction in power. For any hope of a stable and prosperous future, all those who started the war must be excluded from power.

Sudan's survival is at stake.

International help

The stability of Sudan and the cessation of the war have regional implications.

To this end, al-Burhan has since embarked on his first foreign visits since the war began, starting with Egypt. He also plans to visit Saudi Arabia and South Sudan, all of which have significant connections with Sudan.

He should also consider visiting Ethiopia — Sudan's largest neighbour and where the headquarters of the African Union is stationed — as well as Kenya, where recent diplomatic tension between the two countries needs to be urgently addressed. 

As the de facto leader of the country, al-Burhan should secure all the help he can to bring an end to the conflict. If he attends the upcoming UN General Assembly, he should work to repair the animosity between Sudan and the UN brought on by the government's poor diplomacy.

The UN is not an enemy. It provides access to an internationally agreed global system designed to allow for functioning government, under established principles drawn up via international collaboration.

For the benefit of Sudan's long-suffering people, it is vital that we engage with it.