Explainer: Why are military forces fighting each other in Sudan?

One of the main reasons for the dispute is the civilian demand to have oversight of the military and the integration of the quasi-military RSF

This picture taken on April 16, 2023, shows Sudanese army soldiers, loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, posing for a picture at the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) base in the Red Sea city of Port Sudan.

Explainer: Why are military forces fighting each other in Sudan?

Al Majalla - London

last update on 18 Apr 2023

Clashes erupted in Sudan on Saturday between the army, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces, led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemetti).

#Sudan : residents of #Khartoum woke up this morning to the sound of gunfire and plumes of smoke rising into the air as clashes appear to have erupted in the capital city.
These armed confrontations follow weeks of rising tensions between the SAF and RSF military factions. pic.twitter.com/QXQXRsGnzi
— Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) April 15, 2023

Below is an explanation of the roots of the power struggle and a status report on the current power balance in the country.

The ousting of al-Bashir and the quest for democratic rule

Sudan began its journey toward democracy after popular protests ousted President Omar Hassan al-Bashir in April 2019 after ruling over the country for nearly three decades.

Under an agreement signed in August 2019, the military agreed to share power with civilians until elections were held, but this arrangement was suddenly disrupted by a military coup in October 2021, which sparked another wave of mass protests demanding democracy in the country.

The Rapid Support Forces

General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as “Hemedti”) is the commander of the Rapid Support Forces. He currently serves as Deputy Chairman of the ruling Transitional Sovereignty Council.

According to analysts, the Rapid Support Forces headcount is estimated at around 100,000 personnel, with bases and deployments across the country.

The RSF emerged from the so-called armed “Janjaweed” organisations that fought in the early 2000s in the conflict in Darfur, which the then-ruling Bashir government used to help the army suppress what was then described as the “rebellion”.

Members of Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) celebrate as they lead dozens of African nationals, caught as they tried to cross into Libya illegally, in front of the media a desert area called Gouz Abudloaa in 2019.

At least 2.5 million people were displaced and 300,000 were killed in the conflict, and the Janjaweed was accused of committing widespread human rights violations.

Over time, the RSF grew and were used to guard Sudan’s borders, particularly its Western border which was threatened by illegal immigration.

In 2017, a law was passed giving the Rapid Support Forces the status of an independent security force. Military sources said that the army leadership had long expressed concern about the growth of the Hemedti’'s forces and refused to integrate them into its ranks.

In 2017, a law was passed giving the Rapid Support Forces the status of an independent security force. Military sources said that the army leadership had long expressed concern about the growth of the Hemedti''s forces and refused to integrate them into its ranks.

In April 2019, the RSF participated in the military coup that ousted Bashir. Later that year, Hemedti signed a power-sharing agreement making him Deputy Chairman of the ruling Transitional Sovereignty Council, headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.

Sudan's top general Abdel Fattah al-Burhan speaks as he attends the conclusion of a military exercise in the Maaqil area in the northern Nile River State, on December 8, 2021.

Prior to the 2019 agreement, the Rapid Support Forces were accused of targeting dozens of pro-democracy protesters. Its soldiers were also accused of tribal violence, leading to Hemedti lifting the immunity of some soldiers to allow for their prosecution.

The RSF also participated in the October 2021 movement that disrupted the transition to holding elections. Since then, Hemedti has said that he regrets the coup and has said he is willing to sign a new agreement to restore full civilian rule.

The Sudanese army and pro-democracy groups have called for the integration of the RSF into the army. Negotiations on this matter have become a source of tension that has disrupted the signing process that was originally scheduled for 1 April.

The Sudanese army

The Sudanese army has been a dominant force in Sudan since its independence in 1956, having fought internal wars and carried out multiple coups. It controls vast economic resources.

During the transitional period that began with the overthrow of Bashir and ended with the so-called 2021 coup, mistrust between the army and civilians deepened.

Civilians gained legitimacy following their resilient protest movement and support from parts of the international community. Meanwhile, the army received internal support from rebel factions that benefited from the 2020 peace agreement and from veterans of Bashir's government, who returned to civilian service after the coup.

The latter put the army back in charge, but it faced weekly protests, renewed isolation, and worsening economic troubles. However, Hemedti supported the new transition plan, which brought tensions with al-Burhan to the forefront.

Why are the two sides fighting?

One of the main reasons for the dispute is the civilian demand to have oversight of the military and the integration of the quasi-military RSF, which has a strong position in the regular army.

Diania Estefana Rubio

Civilians also demand the transfer of profitable military holdings in agriculture, commerce, and other civilian sectors, which are a major source of power and revenue for the army which has long outsourced military operations to armed factions.

Civilians also demand the transfer of profitable military holdings in agriculture, commerce, and other civilian sectors, which are a major source of power and revenue for the army which has long outsourced military operations to armed factions.

Another point of tension is the pursuit of justice regarding allegations of crimes and violations committed by the army and its allies in the Darfur conflict since 2003. The International Criminal Court seeks to prosecute Bashir and others in Sudan suspected of crimes.

There is also the issue of the investigation into the killing of pro-democracy protesters on 3 June 2019, in which the army has been implicated in. The delay in releasing the results of this investigation has angered activists and civil groups.

Civil forces demand justice for the killing of over 125 people by security forces during protests since the coup.

A worsening economy

The worsening economic crisis, which caused the collapse of the currency and recurrent shortages of bread and fuel, was the first step that led to the fall of Bashir.

The transitional government carried out harsh and rapid reforms between 2019 and 2021, under the supervision of the International Monetary Fund, in an attempt to attract foreign investment and alleviate debt.

People queue for bread outside a bakery amidst a food crisis in the south of Khartoum on April 17, 2023 as fighting in the Sudanese capital between the army and paramilitary forces led by rival generals rages for a third day.

However, billions of dollars in international support and debt relief were frozen after the 2021 coup, derailing development projects, hurting the national budget and exacerbating an already deteriorating humanitarian situation.

Billions of dollars in international support and debt relief were frozen after the 2021 coup, derailing development projects, hurting the national budget and exacerbating an already deteriorating humanitarian situation.

Relations with neighbouring countries

Sudan is located in a troubled region bordered by the Red Sea, the Sahel, and the Horn of Africa. The strategic location of the country and its agricultural wealth have attracted the attention of regional powers, complicating the chances of a successful transition.

Several of Sudan's neighbours — such as Ethiopia, Chad, and South Sudan — have been afflicted by political turmoil and conflicts. Sudan's relationship with Ethiopia, in particular, is tense due to a dispute over agricultural land on the border, the conflict in the Tigray region, which has led thousands of displaced people to Sudan, and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, along with the United States and Britain, form the 'Quartet' that has sponsored mediation in Sudan, along with the United Nations and the African Union. Western powers fear the possibility of a Russian base being established on the Red Sea, which Sudanese military leaders have expressed openness to.

+ / -