Syrian military intervention in Lebanon is nowhere near a priority as Damascus grapples with enormous economic, social, and political obligations at home
The two states are working closer now than they have for decades, with Hezbollah a common problem. But Syria's army entering Lebanon is not the answer.
Recent strikes show how workers are beginning to use Syria's expanded civic space to make economic and social demands. The government should see this as a warning, but also an opportunity.
Last month's floods exposed gaps in coordination and governance. Addressing them now will determine whether the next rise in the river becomes a managed risk or another costly emergency.
Donald Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa have formed a good relationship which has helped Syria immensely, but Trump's term ends in 2028, so institutional relations are now a priority.
Legislation to fund the American military and intelligence services will include requirements that Israeli defence firms be involved in sensitive projects and that classified information be shared
Even if diplomatic progress continues, the Strait could be closed again. As a result, the geopolitical risk premium attached to Gulf energy exports is unlikely to disappear entirely.