Towards a structural plan to drive development in Syria

Damascus is getting help from abroad, but it needs to set its economic stall out with a plan to rebuild its economy. An organised and disciplined fiscal and monetary policy will keep bankruptcy at bay

A currency exchange shop in the Syrian capital Damascus, on April 16, 2025.
AFP
A currency exchange shop in the Syrian capital Damascus, on April 16, 2025.

Towards a structural plan to drive development in Syria

Just over half a year old, the new Syrian state has already accomplished much. That Syrians now enjoy freedom of speech unlike anything they could have dreamt of under the half-century of Assad family rule is one of many areas in which things are better.

After enduring long years of suffering, oppression, terror, and tyranny that reduced the Syrian people to a state of servitude, this is a blessing worth waiting for, as the nation continues its grieving for lost loved ones while struggling to earn a living. They may be free, but for many Syrians, poverty and hunger are never far away.

There are reasons to hope, not least Syria’s swift reintegration back into the Arab regional framework, and the strengthening of its relations with Arab countries and the Gulf Arab states, with Saudi Arabia playing a significant role in this process, as are Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Lebanon, and Türkiye. This has led to multiple delegations arriving in Syria, pledging to contribute to the country’s reconstruction.

Diplomatically, Syria is securing recognition from European countries, with President Al-Sharaa having visited France and received invitations from others, while the meeting between President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and US President Donald Trump in May carried considerable political and economic implications, including the latter’s decision to end the US-imposed Assad-era sanctions.

The Central Bank of Syria and Syrian banks can now access the international financial transfer system (SWIFT), overcoming a major obstacle that prevented the flow of investments and remittances to and from Syria. The Caesar Act, originally issued by the US Congress, is also on track to be resolved with bipartisan support. As a result, Syria can now conduct business with the outside world, including imports and exports, as well as borrowing from international financial institutions.

Problems and solutions

The economy is the foundation from which a state moves from destruction to reconstruction. Economic policies enhance agricultural and industrial production, develop the services sector, generate revenues for the public purse, correct the balance of payments, and promote growth. Yet despite no fewer than 11 economic plans from 1961 to 2015, Syria’s economic growth was rarely more than 1%, and the absorption of unemployed workers into the economy rarely more than 2-3%.

Yamam al Shaar / Reuters
Workers package medicines at a pharmaceutical factory producing medicines, in Damascus, Syria May 19, 2025.

Talented university graduates could not get jobs with prospects, so they took anything. The state monopolised all sectors, transforming production unites into bloated structures staffed with underemployed workers. In 2005, the state sought to address this by introducing a social market economy, mirroring the China model, despite fundamental differences in the two states’ governance and leadership capacity.

Despite no fewer than 11 economic plans from 1961 to 2015, Syria's economic growth was rarely more than 1%

For the new Syrian state administration, defining strategic economic objectives for the next five years is essential. This would be a rounded view, incorporating vital elements like security. The plan should prioritise the most critical aspects and include a feasible investment strategy, focusing on economic revival and job creation. The domestic and foreign investment law should be clear and provide a unified investment map for all relevant ministries. It is crucial to be joined up. A patchwork approach will not work.

Although this government is still in its infancy, time is not a luxury available to an economy requiring major restructuring, nor is it something Syrians staring at poverty can afford. Any economic plan must first be based on available capabilities. A long-term economic planning approach is necessary to achieve strong and sustainable growth. There should be a focus on improving efficiency, service reform, managing public debt, and increasing infrastructure investments.

Syria's policy levers

This is where fiscal and monetary policies come into play. Fiscal policy aims to maintain exchange rate stability and coordinate banking, monetary, and financial policies. An effective tool for achieving economic and social stability, fiscal policy takes a directive approach, steering the economy toward specific goals such as growth and social justice. It is also flexible, able to adapt to changing economic conditions. It focuses on the overall economic impact of government spending and revenues.

AFP
The Syrian Central Bank, pictured on June 17, 2020.

Monetary policy directly affects inflation and can be an effective tool for addressing it. Increasing the money supply usually exacerbates inflationary pressures, while reducing the money supply can likewise help curb inflation. A state with a structured and disciplined monetary policy is far less likely to go bankrupt. It can freely expand public spending if it can instruct the central bank to provide the necessary funds to finance its operations (knowing that the central bank is fully independent).

Monetary and fiscal policies are based on open market operations, standing facilities, minimum reserve requirements, rediscounting, and lending. Government sovereign wealth funds play a fundamental role in development and growth. The combined global value of these funds is estimated at around $14tn. Norway's sovereign fund, grown from its oil and gas revenues, is the world's biggest, worth almost $2tn.

Accessing the funds

Other funds include holding funds, which invest in state-owned assets, such as the Singaporean holding company Temasek, or strategic investment funds, such as the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), which manages around $1.15tn. Two of the world's biggest funds are Chinese: State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) Investment Company ($1.4tn) and China Investment Corporation ($1.3tn). Other big funds are associated with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Qatar, Singapore, and Dubai.

AFP
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa delivers a speech during the announcement of the new slogan of the republic, Damascus 3 July 2025.

These funds serve as a financial reserve for addressing crises and for selling or mortgaging federal assets, with the proceeds reinvested in new sectors. However, the funds carry risks of corruption and mismanagement. A lack of transparency can lead to exploitation of the fund for personal or political gain, as happened in Malaysia with the 1MDB fund, the investigation into which is still ongoing. Investment decisions may also be ill-considered, particularly if funds are allocated toward unsuitable assets or the fund becomes politicised.

Establishing a sovereign fund in Syria, like those of oil-rich Gulf states, is not an option at the moment. The country's financial situation simply makes it untenable. As and when funds do become available, it would be more appropriate for Syrian authorities to invest these in its economic and financial restructuring plan, through immediate direct investment. Syria needs to move beyond yesterday and build today, in order that the country should have a better tomorrow.

font change

Related Articles