A two-week truce has sparked a cautious market rebound, but deep anxiety persists over renewed escalation and its impact on global growth and inflation
Iran's attacks on two big Gulf producers threw the industry a curveball. Although alternatives exist, the UAE and Bahrain facilities will be hard to replace.
The IRGC doesn't just defend the state, it runs it. To wave the white flag wouldn't just mean giving up its arms; it would mean dismantling the organisation and its patronage networks.
Moscow saw oil and gas revenue double in April and was happy to see US resources diverted away from Ukraine. But an extended war could have carried serious costs for the Kremlin.
If the ceasefire collapses, China has an interest in getting the two sides back to the table, but it would be a difficult task given Tehran's deep mistrust of the US and Israel.
The standoff in the Hormuz is not simply a question of whether Tehran can survive economic pressure, but whether Washington can sustain the pressure at an acceptable cost.
The Strait of Hormuz is now poised to become the primary arena of confrontation, with Iran relying on speedboat-driven guerrilla warfare to confront the US navy.
Former regime soldiers are stuck in limbo, as their undocumented status prevents them from working, travelling, and curbs family members' access to education, healthcare and social services