A few days after Iranian officials rejected the Lebanese government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah, Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, arrived in Beirut. During his visit, he publicly affirmed Iran’s respect for Lebanon’s sovereignty and the decisions of its national institutions. However, events on the ground soon told a different story.
Just hours after Larijani’s departure, Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, accused the Lebanese government of serving Israeli interests and threatened to launch a “Karbala-like battle” in opposition to the disarmament decision, declaring that “there can be no life in Lebanon if the government dares confront the party.”
Stark reminder
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam responded to Qassem’s threats, reminding the public that Hezbollah and the Amal Movement had previously agreed—during their participation in Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government—to a cessation of hostilities last November. That agreement stipulated that “no party or political faction is authorised to bear arms in Lebanon.”
It is worth recalling that Mikati had tweeted at the time— minutes after the agreement became public—that he had reviewed its terms only once they had already been endorsed by both Nabih Berri and Hezbollah. In his post dated 26 November 2024, Mikati wrote: “I reviewed this understanding, which outlines a roadmap for a ceasefire, only this evening.”
Hezbollah can declare war on Lebanon and accuse the government of treason; accusations and threats have long been its chief means of political engagement. It can also provoke civil strife or clash with the Lebanese state and its military institutions. But the pressing question remains: what comes next?
