Tehran will return to nuclear negotiations with far fewer cards. Even if it seeks a token gesture on enrichment, that could be rejected. Remaining options include capitulation or even civil war.
Israel fears that such action—if taken in Washington—could then be taken by other Israeli allies, whether against Netzah Yehuda or any other military unit
Much is made of links between Beijing and Tehran, but the true extent of their relations is more limited. Where there are alternatives, China takes them, with one eye on the US.
Against the backdrop of geopolitical realignments, the burgeoning partnership between Iran and Pakistan can potentially recalibrate the balance of power in South Asia and beyond.
It remains to be seen if, going forward, Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Syria or Lebanon—or against the PMF in Iraq—will elicit a direct Iranian response. Time will tell.
The US and French withdrawal from the Sahel lets the Russians, Chinese, and Iranians in. Tehran, in particular, will be keen to buy Niger's uranium, despite this being a red line for Washington.
The Iraqi PM and Joe Biden stuck to the script, emphasising economic opportunities. No one mentioned US troop withdrawal, but Baghdad's tense relations with Iraqi Kurds did come up.
The two new countries were forged after the Balkans War in the 1990s. While tensions remain, they are evidence of what can be achieved with international support.
Netanyahu did not realise his goal of ending Iran's nuclear programme and regime change, and Iran stood alone in its war with Israel, as global and regional allies left it to fend for itself
For decades, Iran's supreme leader—first Khomeini, then Khamenei—pursued a strategy of backing regional militias to fight Israel, but with the 'resistance axis' in tatters, Iran is left to fight alone