Revealed: the insider story of Assad’s flight and Sharaa’s arrival

His departure was hurried and secretive. He did not even tell his brother, nephew, guards, or senior aides that he was going, and notably refused to bring Maj. Gen. Fayez Jumaa, head of his guard convoy. He only took two senior officials with him: Presidential Affairs Minister Mansour Azzam (whose brother is a businessman in Russia), and Brig. Gen. Mohsen Mohammed, plus a small contingent of personnel.  

As advisors and relatives learned that he had gone, chaos ensued, and most fled in haste to the coast, Lebanon, or Iraq, all eventually dispersing to other countries. 

The events outlined above are a summary of the former Syrian president's departure, pieced together through a series of discussions with armed and political opposition figures, officials in Damascus, and Arab and Western contacts. The following is a more detailed description of the stunning end to the Assad family legacy. 

In Moscow and Aleppo  

The entry of HTS and its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (nom de guerre: Abu Mohammad al-Joulani) into Aleppo coincided with Assad's visit to Moscow at the end of November.  

Before he left on 27 November, Assad met members of the Islamic women's religious group Qubaisiyat, which was founded in the mid-20th century by Munira al-Qubaisi, a Syrian woman who sought to create a movement for Muslim women focused on religious education, spiritual growth, and societal reform within an Islamic framework.

He was flying to Moscow to join his wife, Asma, who is battling leukemia, and to attend their son Hafez's PhD graduation ceremony in mathematics from Moscow State University on 28 November, a ceremony he ultimately missed. 

On the same day, HTS and allied factions launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression to deliver a pre-emptive blow following the regime's violations of the Idlib de-escalation agreement brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2020.

By the third day of the operation, opposition factions had reached Aleppo, taking control of more than 400 sq. km over 56 towns and villages in the process. A call with a source working from their operations room gave further details. They had "decided to overthrow the regime militarily," he said.

"This is the decision of HTS and Sheikh Abu Mohammad. We will take Aleppo, then Hama, and then decide the fate of Homs and Damascus… We have the administrative capacity to govern Syria from Damascus. The Salvation Government managing Idlib has ministers and plans in-place to run all of Syria."

When discussion turned to al-Sharaa, the source said: "There is consensus that he will be Syria's future leader." HTS is "a well-organised army," he added. "You have no idea how extensive our preparations have been over the past months. We have 40,000 fighters in the field and 80,000 in reserve."

They said: "We have a precise plan for Aleppo. Fighters will enter the city and then withdraw, leaving it to the civilians. Lives and property will remain untouched. We will restore electricity, bread, and essential services. Anyone who violates these orders or harms civilians or property will face immediate execution."

Collapse and reassurance 

Assad's sudden absence threw officials and military leaders into disarray, as evidenced by the chaos communicated by Brig. Gen. Ahmad al-Ali, head of the Military Security Branch, before his death. 

"We don't know what's happening," he said. "Large convoys of armed men. Army withdrawals and evacuations. I contacted the division head (Maj. Gen. Kamal Hassan), who told me to hold the line. I called Defence Minister Ali Mahmoud Abbas, and he said reinforcements were on their way and the air force will bomb (the rebels)."

Meanwhile, HTS leaders sought to reassure civilians and international observers, emphasising their commitment to preserving state institutions, ensuring accountability without retaliation, safeguarding minority rights, and protecting both private and public property. 

This disciplined adherence to principles helped HTS—which appointed a spokesman to provide details on the operation—to secure victories in Syria's major cities, beginning with Aleppo, where HTS fighters defeated the 46th Regiment. 

It was while Assad was flying back from Moscow that HTS entered Aleppo, the economic capital of Syria. The regime said it had been hacked and attributed its defeat to "breaches" of its military communications, with withdrawal orders issued. The deputy head of the security committee was also killed by the committee's guards. 

The regime's defences collapsed, and soldiers fled in disarray. The collapse of the army lines was sudden and there was no organised retreat, but rather mass desertion, with soldiers refusing to fight.

Resistance and warnings

A source in Damascus suggested that the fall of Aleppo was a "trap" designed to illicit a counter-offensive against Idlib. After Aleppo, the army withdrew to Hama, where a significant battle was expected, and where it hoped to regroup, with Assad appointing Suhail Hassan to lead the 'Northern Front.' 

Russian airstrikes intensified, and the regime began recruiting fighters with lucrative financial offers, as Assad sought military support from Iraqi Hashd forces and financial backing from the United Arab Emirates. 

Yet the US explicitly warned the Iraqi government against deploying the Hashd and conducted airstrikes against militia forces trying to cross into Syria. Meanwhile, Turkey warned Russia and Iran against military intervention, threatening direct involvement if necessary. "If you intervene militarily, we will intervene militarily," was the warning. This marked a significant turning point. 

While Assad contacted Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shi'a al-Sudani and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed to make his requests, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called Turkish and Iranian counterparts Hakan Fidan and Abbas Araghchi, but it quickly became clear that Iran was overburdened by its commitments with Hezbollah, while Russia was preoccupied with Ukraine. 

In Damascus, an Iranian-backed strategy involved intensifying airstrikes on Idlib and targeting the families of opposition fighters to exert pressure, ease the battle for Hama, and force the withdrawal of forces from Aleppo. Yet this did not work, and al-Sharaa was soon seen appearing at the Aleppo Citadel with unwavering confidence.

On 1 December, opposition factions solidified their control over Aleppo and continued their advance, capturing key military centres, as Washington put out its first statement, saying: "The Assad regime's ongoing refusal to engage in the political process outlined in UNSCR 2254, and its reliance on Russia and Iran, created the conditions now unfolding, including the collapse of Assad regime lines in north-west Syria."

Around this time, the opposition source who first shared the rebels' plans offered an update, outlining the factions involved in the operation and their strategies. HTS and its allies would proceed to Homs and Damascus after securing Aleppo and Hama, while the Syrian National Army (SNA) would focus on eastern and northern Aleppo to combat the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Tal Rifaat and Manbij.

Battling for Hama 

At Kouris Airport in the Aleppo countryside, opposition factions seized Russian missile systems and Iranian drones. In response, Russian warplanes bombed the University Square in Aleppo and a camp in Idlib for the internally displaced. 

On 2 December, Assad met Aragchi and vowed to "continue to fight terrorism across all territories," while Jordan's King Abdullah said: "We stand by our brothers in Syria and its territorial integrity and sovereignty." Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he was closely monitoring events and was "determined to protect our interests," while the British government issued a statement criticizing Assad. 

The battle for Hama intensified, as the opposition factions advanced to within 7km of the city, extending the battlefront to 40km. They then stormed four key military positions: Hama Airport, the Tracking School, the 86th Regiment, and the 47th Brigade, while also reassuring the Christian populations who live in the Hama countryside.

Russia and the Assad regime launched 45 airstrikes on Idlib within 24 hours, but these were having little effect, and after intense clashes in Jabal Zain al-Abidin and northern Hama, amid heavy Russian airstrikes, HTS entered Hama on 5 December—a huge blow to what remained of Syrian army morale. 

One regime supporter put it in perspective, later saying that "the battle of Aleppo was unexpected and lacked Russian involvement, but Hama followed extensive preparations, with Russian air support".

Analysts predicted that the fighting would pause after HTS captured Hama. It was expected that Turkey's President Erdogan would call Russia's President Putin to negotiate an agreement reflecting the new military realities. This view was reinforced when Russia bombed the Rastan Bridge, which separates Hama and northern Syria from Homs and the south.

Onwards to Homs

Around this time, in a significant move, HTS leader al-Sharaa began using his real name (as opposed to his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Joulani), as the group and its allied factions seized Hama and advanced towards Homs, just 48km away. The Syrian army had already confirmed its withdrawal to the city.

Even as the battle for Homs began, the regime was still confident that the opposition factions would not reach the capital, with Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh telling an Arab official: "We will escalate our bombardment of Idlib. Do not ask us to de-escalate against terrorism. All Arab states stand with us in this battle."

Simultaneously, and prompted by the shifting military landscape, the US and Russian militaries reactivated a military hotline they had established in Syria in 2017, to forewarn each other of interventions and therefore to hopefully avoid any accidental direct confrontation between the two nuclear powers.

Discussions were also underway to arrange a meeting of the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, and Turkey on the sidelines of a forum in Doha on 7 December, as several countries, including China, began urging their citizens to leave Damascus, and the United Nations withdrew all non-essential staff from the capital.

The Israeli military reinforced its presence in the Syrian Golan Heights on Friday 6 December, opposition factions launched military operations in Daraa, in southern Syria, near the Jordanian border, and the Kurdish SDF blocked the Al-Bukamal crossing, a critical link between Iran and Syria through Iraq.

Fast moving situation

If anything, events on the ground were now moving even more quickly, as the Syrian army confirmed its withdrawal from Sweida and Daraa, while opposition factions expanded their control along the Jordanian border. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke about how the new phase in Syria was "being managed calmly". On 6 December, he said he hoped the factions would advance "without problems" to Damascus after Homs. Around then, chaos gripped the capital. "God willing, we will be in the heart of Damascus by 10pm," said the source in the opposition's operations room, in comments that soon spread. 

Although HTS and allies had not yet fully secured Homs, there was strong confidence that Damascus was within their imminent grasp. Indeed, the 'southern operations room' factions, led by Ahmad al-Oudeh, entered Damascus on the evening of 7 December, by which point the Assad family had reportedly flown to Moscow. 

A spokesman said Assad was still in Damascus, carrying out his duties, and denied rumours of a visit to the UAE. Syria's interior minister said "a security cordon has been established around Damascus," while the army's chief-of-staff said it was "securing" the city and "controlling the chaos". 

In parallel, HTS continued sending reassuring messages to minorities and institutions, and city leaders across the region surrendered peacefully and extended a welcoming hand to the fighters, but in Damascus, confusion and uncertainty prevailed. 

The view from abroad

The presidential media office began preparing a speech for Assad to deliver at the palace, where he had addressed the nation following the recapture of Aleppo in 2016, as Lavrov told Doha Forum attendees: "We will not allow a terrorist group (HTS) to take control of Damascus," while Araghchi warned that "dialogue between the government and opposition must begin". Both seemed out-of-touch with events on the ground.

Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said Assad had "missed opportunities for refugee return and reconciliation" and called on UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen to initiate "urgent political talks in Geneva to implement Resolution 2254". 

Pedersen said Syria required "comprehensive and credible transitional arrangements", while privately telling Araghchi and Lavrov that Assad had agreed to negotiate in Geneva, but by then it was too late.

US President-elect Donald Trump commented that the Syrian opposition posed a threat to Assad and that Russia was incapable of halting their advance, adding: "If Russia is forced to withdraw from Syria... that would be the best outcome for them."

In private, Arab officials still stood with the regime. "If we are forced to choose between Assad and al-Joulani, we will choose Assad," said one. "We do not want chaos in Syria." Yet they were also surprised that the Syrian army was not putting up a fight. Given that reality, Arab leaders were not surprised that Moscow or Tehran could offer no support.

"I want to assist an army that is willing to fight," said one Arab minister, privately. Another, who met Lavrov, said the Russian "seemed resigned… and incapable of taking action", adding that Moscow appeared open to the inclusion of HTS in a transitional governing body for Syria. 

Meanwhile, Western officials were telling Lavrov to "act quickly, move beyond Assad and his family, and preserve the army", because no-one wanted to see the state collapse, but Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan appeared confident, adding that the factions launched the offensive themselves. 

In private, Fidan told an Arab official that the Syrian army "has decided not to fight, even in Damascus". That official later said Turkey had "informed all parties that if any foreign power intervenes militarily, Turkey will respond militarily".

Scene in Damascus

As opposition factions advanced from the north and the south, a civilian aircraft landed at Mazzeh Military Airport. Surrounded by military planes, eyewitnesses said it carried boxes, videos and photos later verifying the account. An Arab envoy visited Assad on Friday 6 December, leaving at 4pm. One witness described their interaction as "normal".

On Saturday, both the interior minister and army chief-of-staff issued statements declaring a "security cordon". Assad reportedly met his military and security chiefs, telling the head of the National Security Bureau, Kifah Moulhem, to remain at his post.

Around midday, eyewitnesses near the National Security Bureau, the Republican Guard, and the 4th Division saw personnel burning documents and computers. At this point, Damascus was in a state of panic, with heavy traffic and fearful residents panic-buying food, which led to shortages of essentials like sugar, oil, and rice. 

By the evening, security forces including even traffic police had started withdrawing from the city, with soldiers retreating into the Kafr Sousa security zone via the Southern Bypass at around 6pm. At the same time, a large convoy of all-terrain vehicles, including some mounted with heavy machine guns, was seen entering the city.

That afternoon, Assad spoke to Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh, advisor Bouthaina Shaaban, Student Union leader Darin Suleiman, and Deputy Secretary-General of the Presidency Lina Kinaya, assuring all of them that "there is no need to worry, Russian support is on its way… We will fight and retake the cities". One of those he called said Assad told them "we're heading into battle". That person later mused: "It seems we were misled." 

By the early evening, Assad had said he would deliver a "war speech" rather than step down, and preparations for this were underway, with photographers preparing the venue and Russia Today establishing a broadcast signal. By 9.30pm, Assad was still saying: "No need to worry, support from our Russian allies is coming. There is no rush to deliver the speech now—it's too late. Tomorrow, I will give the speech."

The 'night of escape'

Assad arranged breakfast with Suleiman on Sunday morning and tasked Shaaban with preparing a draft speech, to be delivered on Sunday afternoon. But that night, a critical call came from Moscow, informing him that he must leave Damascus immediately to prevent further bloodshed and safeguard the remaining Russian interests.

His advisors, including Republican Guard convoy commander Maj. Gen. Fayez Jumaa, were in bed when they were awoke with the news: Assad had fled. In the flight out, he had taken only Presidential Affairs Minister Mansour Azzam (whose brother is a businessman in Russia) and Protection Officer Brig. Gen. Mohsen Mohammad. 

They drove to Russia's Hmeimim Airbase then flew to Moscow. Assad's wife Asma sent an aide to Damascus, only for the aide to arrive from Dubai and discover that the airport was now under the control of opposition factions. "I weep for our situation," he later recalled. "We were misled and deceived."

When news of Assad's swift departure leaked, his advisors fled to Lebanon, the Syrian coast, or other Arab countries. Some palace staff resumed their duties, while others sought refuge in countries like the UAE, Russia, Lebanon, and Iraq. Reports emerged that some took refuge in one of the embassies in Damascus.

At the army's 4th Division headquarters, fighting erupted in the office of Assad's powerful brother Maher, involving his deputy, his chief-of-staff, and a military commander. It ended with one of them being shot, and another killed by a grenade. Maher fled to Iraq with business associate Ra'if Al-Quwatly and militia leaders.

Meant to protect us

The 4th Division, which was established to defend Damascus, "dissolved and disappeared within hours as its members fled to the coast," said one source familiar with proceedings.

At 3am on Sunday, the Republican Guard received orders to withdraw. By then, Assad was known to have fled, having done so without telling his accompanying officers, Maj. Gen. Fayez Jumaa (head of the Special Operations Bureau), his brother Maher, or his nephew Basil (son of his sister, Bushra).

He denied permission for the head of his security convoy to travel with him and told one of his drivers taking him to Hmeimim Airbase that he was transporting "documents for our Russian allies". A well-informed source later revealed that "he was afraid one of his guards might kill him".

Despite the news that Assad had gone, many palace security personnel continued their duties diligently, even meticulously inspecting vehicles—in stark contrast to the lax security measures of previous years, when cars were allowed to pass in and out of the compound without much scrutiny.

In-line with principles established since the battle for Aleppo (such as preserving state institutions), a formal handover of power took place between the official government and the interim government affiliated with HTS. 

Ahmad al-Sharaa entered Damascus through its northern gate, while Assad left by the back door, neither resigning nor apologising. A week later, a statement attributed to him seemed to blame the Syrian army and Russia for his departure. As ever, it seems to have been someone else's fault.