Tehran will return to nuclear negotiations with far fewer cards. Even if it seeks a token gesture on enrichment, that could be rejected. Remaining options include capitulation or even civil war.
When Israel considers its next move after Iran's retaliatory attack, it is not simply calculating the cost and benefits of a response but will also be creating a new equation for future exchanges.
From the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus to Iran's retaliation on Israel, the Syrian leader has been acting strangely normal. Al Majalla gives a breakdown of the past two weeks.
The Israeli prime minister and Hamas leader have inflated military progress in Gaza, whitewashed their failures and religionised the war. Who can cast doubts about a divine victory?
While this marked the first time Iran directly struck Israel, the weak showing of these drone strikes demonstrates Tehran's clear desire to avoid getting sucked into a direct conflict
Iranian-backed militias are exploiting growing anger over Israel's war on Gaza and Jordan is as susceptible as ever to being drawn into the conflict which has spilled into the region
Netanyahu did not realise his goal of ending Iran's nuclear programme and regime change, and Iran stood alone in its war with Israel, as global and regional allies left it to fend for itself
For decades, Iran's supreme leader—first Khomeini, then Khamenei—pursued a strategy of backing regional militias to fight Israel, but with the 'resistance axis' in tatters, Iran is left to fight alone